Marseille v Le Havre prediction
Team pages: Marseille · Le Havre · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Marseille v Le Havre, Ligue 1 on Sun, 25 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT.
The match
Marseille host Le Havre in Ligue 1 on Sunday 25 October (kick-off 16:15 UK); the model’s free pick is Marseille or Le Havre (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.
The key numbers
Le Havre are winless in their last seven matches in all competitions. Marseille are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Le Havre, every meeting checked.
Form and the table
Eight of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Marseille have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.29. Marseille have scored 14 goals, the second-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Marseille have conceded 10 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.
Five of Le Havre’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in 10 of Le Havre’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Le Havre have one win, four draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.88 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.38. Le Havre have scored five goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Le Havre have conceded 11 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.
Marseille (ninth) and Le Havre (18th) are seven points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Marseille the stronger side, 272 rating points above Le Havre (Marseille 1668, Le Havre 1396, after at least 109 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Le Havre 0–1 Marseille.
Team news
Predicted Marseille XI (4-4-2): J. de Lange, Emerson, C. Egan-Riley, T. Weah, N. Aguerd, A. Harit, H. Abdelli, A. Gomes, I. Paixão, A. Gouiri, K. Abdallah — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (4.3 per match over six appearances, one goal) and Amine Gouiri (4.0 per match over nine appearances, five goals and one assist) have been Marseille’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Marseille (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Pierre-Emile Højbjerg averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 882 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances. Amine Gouiri averages 1.5 shots per 90 over 1047 minutes, with a shot in five of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Le Havre XI (3-4-2-1): G. Gallon, A. Touba, A. Seko, D. Ouziad, S. Ebonog, A. Richardson, E. Jelert, T. Pembélé, K. Mizuta, J. Maja, M. Samatta — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Simon Ebonog (4.3 per match over seven appearances) and A. Richardson (4.3 per match over seven appearances) have been Le Havre’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Le Havre (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Simon Ebonog averages 1.0 key passes per 90 over 614 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last seven appearances. A. Richardson averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 614 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last seven appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Ligue 1 · Stade Orange Vélodrome
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Marseille 6 · draws 0 · Le Havre 0 · 4.17 goals/game
- Recent form: Marseille 2W 0D 3L · Le Havre 0W 1D 4L
Marseille v Le Havre (Ligue 1): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Marseille for / against | Line | Le Havre for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.38 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.25our book | 0.88 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 5.13 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 12.88 for · 16.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 14.63 for · 12.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.25 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.63 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 12 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 14.13 for · 14.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.5 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.75 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
Marseille
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Moumbagna n 8 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | — |
| T. Mmadi n 3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | — |
| T. Nnadi n 8 | 54.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | — |
| K. Abdallah n 8 | 39.1 | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| B. Meité n 8 | 80.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| K. Abdallah n 8 | 39.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 |
| T. Mmadi n 3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Igor Paixão n 8 | 72.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| A. Gouiri n 8 | 70.3 | 1.8 | 1 |
| A. Harit n 8 | 75.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Gouiri n 8 | 70.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| H. Abdelli n 8 | 80.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| A. Harit n 8 | 75.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| T. Weah n 8 | 88.4 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Emerson n 8 | 78.4 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Nouhoum Kamissoko n 4 | 26 | 3.5 |
| T. Mmadi n 3 | 9.3 | 3.2 |
| T. Weah n 8 | 88.4 | 2.5 |
| G. Kondogbia n 8 | 52.1 | 2.4 |
| Q. Timber n 8 | 53.9 | 2.1 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| J. de Lange n 8 | 90 | 3.9 |
Le Havre
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Richardson n 8 | 80.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | — |
| R. Fofana n 8 | 36 | 2.2 | 3.8 | — |
| S. Ebonog n 8 | 78.9 | 2 | 2.3 | — |
| T. Pembélé n 8 | 39.8 | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| A. Sangante n 8 | 78.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| M. Samatta n 8 | 87.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| I. Soumaré n 8 | 59.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| R. Fofana n 8 | 36 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| J. Maja n 8 | 55.6 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Kaito Mizuta n 8 | 54.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Nakamura n 8 | 43.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| R. Fofana n 8 | 36 | 0.6 | 0 |
| I. Soumaré n 8 | 59.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| M. Samatta n 8 | 87.3 | 0.3 | 0 |
| V. Sasso n 8 | 77.3 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| T. Pembélé n 8 | 39.8 | 3.7 |
| E. Koffi Vinette n 8 | 25.8 | 3.1 |
| R. Ndiaye n 8 | 73.4 | 2.8 |
| A. Richardson n 8 | 80.3 | 2.7 |
| J. Mwanga n 8 | 65.5 | 2.7 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Marseille v Le Havre — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-05-10 Le Havre 0–1 Marseille
- 2025-10-18 Marseille 6–2 Le Havre
- 2025-05-10 Le Havre 1–3 Marseille
- 2025-01-05 Marseille 5–1 Le Havre
- 2024-05-19 Le Havre 1–2 Marseille
- 2023-10-08 Marseille 3–0 Le Havre
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Marseille v Le Havre?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Marseille v Le Havre is Home or Away.
- What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Le Havre?
- In their last 6 meetings, Marseille won 6, Le Havre won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4.17 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Marseille and Le Havre?
- Recent form — Marseille 2W 0D 3L; Le Havre 0W 1D 4L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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