Columbus Crew v Toronto FC prediction

Major League Soccer · · ScottsMiracle-Gro Field

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Columbus Crew · Toronto FC · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Columbus Crew v Toronto FC, Major League Soccer on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 20:30 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 645 landed (95% range 61.8–69.1%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Columbus Crew host Toronto FC in Major League Soccer on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 20:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Columbus Crew have scored in five consecutive matches.

Form and the table

11 of Columbus Crew’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 11 of Columbus Crew’s last 15 results (73%). At home, Columbus Crew have five wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 9 home matches — 1.78 points per game, scoring 1.67 and conceding 1.22. Columbus Crew have scored 44 goals, the 15th-fewest (shared) of the 30 clubs (2026 so far). Columbus Crew have conceded 47 goals, the 15th-fewest (shared) of the 30 clubs.

10 of Toronto FC’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 11 of Toronto FC’s last 15 results (73%). Away from home, Toronto FC have one win, three draws and four defeats in their last 8 away matches — 0.75 points per game, scoring 0.63 and conceding 1.50. Toronto FC have scored 44 goals, the 15th-fewest (shared) of the 30 clubs (2026 so far). Toronto FC have conceded 55 goals, the sixth-most of the 30 clubs.

Columbus Crew (13th) and Toronto FC (11th) are one point apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Columbus Crew the stronger side, 5 rating points above Toronto FC (Columbus Crew 1516, Toronto FC 1511, after at least 335 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Toronto FC are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Columbus Crew. The most recent meeting, on 21 March 2026, finished Toronto FC 2–1 Columbus Crew.

Team news

Predicted Columbus Crew XI (3-4-3): P. Schulte, S. Zawadzki, M. Amundsen, S. Moreira, M. Farsi, T. Habroune, A. Gomes, T. Karumanchi, B. Méndez, J. Martínez, S. Rodríguez — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Santiago Rodríguez (5.8 per match over seven appearances, two goals and two assists) and Maximilian Arfsten (5.3 per match over 17 appearances, four goals and four assists) have been Columbus Crew’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Columbus Crew (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Santiago Rodríguez averages 2.3 key passes per 90 over 1431 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Maximilian Arfsten averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 2117 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Toronto FC XI (4-2-3-1): L. Gavran, M. Pereira, N. Gomis, Z. Monlouis, J. Gilman, A. Coello, N. Dorsch, D. Sallói, T. Corbeanu, M. Cimermancic, J. Sargent — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, N. Dorsch (3.9 per match over nine appearances, two goals and one assist) and Alonso Coello (3.7 per match over 29 appearances, four assists) have been Toronto FC’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Toronto FC (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), N. Dorsch averages 1.0 key passes per 90 over 742 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last nine appearances. Alonso Coello averages 2.7 key passes per 90 over 2072 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Major League Soccer · ScottsMiracle-Gro Field
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Columbus Crew 3 · draws 2 · Toronto FC 1 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Columbus Crew 4W 0D 1L · Toronto FC 1W 1D 3L

Columbus Crew v Toronto FC (Major League Soccer): TACTIX’s calibrated model has priced this fixture across 246 markets — the full record, losers included, is published live (as of 17 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.88 / 1.63
Goals
against 1.13 / 2.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.29 / 4.88
Corners
against 3 / 5.63 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
7.43 / 5.25
Shots on target
against 3.86 / 6.38 · 3 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.57 / 1.75
Cards
against 2.57 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameColumbus Crew for / againstLineToronto FC for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5standard
1.63 for · 2.25 against n 8
Corners won
6.29 for · 3 against n 7
9.5standard
4.88 for · 5.63 against n 8
Shots
18.57 for · 11 against n 7
19.5standard
14.63 for · 14.38 against n 8
Shots on target
7.43 for · 3.86 against n 7
8.5standard
5.25 for · 6.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.86 for · 13.57 against n 7
21.5standard
10 for · 12.5 against n 8
Cards shown
2.57 for · 2.57 against n 7
3.5standard
1.75 for · 1.88 against n 8
Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
G. Tapia n 838
3.36/3
2.45/2
—
J. Thiare n 828.6
3.15/2
2.45/1
—
T. Karumanchi n 866.5
2.26/5
1.74/4
—
Taha Habroune n 865.8
1.75/3
1.44/3
—
Andres Herrera n 813.1
1.72/0
3.44/0
—
Columbus Crew — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Tapia n 838
4.16/4
2.46/2
A. Zaroury n 868
47/5
1.73/3
Brais Méndez n 885.3
3.27/5
2.27/3
Santiago Rodríguez n 874.5
37/7
1.26/2
J. Thiare n 828.6
2.84/2
0.82/0
Columbus Crew — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Santiago Rodríguez n 874.5
0.63/1
0.32/0
G. Tapia n 838
0.31/0
0.62/0
J. Thiare n 828.6
0.82/0
00/0
Taha Habroune n 865.8
0.53/0
0.21/0
Brais Méndez n 885.3
0.54/0
0.11/0
Columbus Crew — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Sean Zawadzki n 891
2.66/5
Sekou Tidiany Bangoura n 850.4
2.54/3
Taha Habroune n 865.8
2.47/5
T. Karumanchi n 866.5
2.24/3
Santiago Rodríguez n 874.5
2.17/4
Columbus Crew — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Patrick Schulte n 891
3.37/4
Toronto FC
Toronto FC — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Raheem Edwards n 854.8
2.57/3
1.86/3
—
N. Dorsch n 883.9
2.38/3
1.58/3
—
R. Laryea n 875.5
1.85/4
2.58/4
—
Benjamin Kuscevic n 884.9
1.68/3
00/0
—
Alonso Coello n 877.5
1.66/3
0.64/0
—
Toronto FC — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Morgan n 838.8
2.66/3
26/1
Josh Sargent n 886.1
2.56/5
0.93/1
Theo Corbeanu n 865.6
2.16/4
0.94/1
D. Mihailovic n 862.8
26/3
1.46/2
Emilio Aristizábal n 820.5
1.62/1
0.51/0
Toronto FC — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Theo Corbeanu n 865.6
0.32/0
0.74/0
D. Mihailovic n 862.8
0.42/0
0.52/1
L. Morgan n 838.8
0.62/0
0.31/0
Dániel Sallói n 879.8
0.32/0
0.43/0
A. Piedrahita n 863.3
00/0
0.52/1
Toronto FC — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Raheem Edwards n 854.8
3.97/5
Nickseon Gomis n 841.5
3.35/4
Kobe Franklin n 851.9
2.86/3
Matheus Pereira n 868.3
2.15/4
N. Dorsch n 883.9
27/5
Toronto FC — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Luka Gavran n 881.6
45/5
William Yarbrough n 888.9
3.57/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Columbus Crew v Toronto FC — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Columbus CrewWWWLW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Toronto FCLLLWD
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.2 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Columbus Crew 3 · 2 draws · Toronto FC 1 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2026-03-21 Toronto FC 2–1 Columbus Crew
  • 2025-09-20 Columbus Crew 1–1 Toronto FC
  • 2025-08-16 Toronto FC 1–1 Columbus Crew
  • 2024-09-18 Toronto FC 0–2 Columbus Crew
  • 2024-07-06 Columbus Crew 4–0 Toronto FC
  • 2023-08-26 Columbus Crew 2–0 Toronto FC
League standing · 2026
Columbus Crew#13 pos32 pts29 pl-3 GD
Toronto FC#11 pos33 pts29 pl-11 GD
Goals per game
Columbus Crew scored1.52
Toronto FC scored1.52
Columbus Crew conceded1.62
Toronto FC conceded1.9

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Columbus Crew v Toronto FC?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Columbus Crew v Toronto FC is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Columbus Crew and Toronto FC?
In their last 6 meetings, Columbus Crew won 3, Toronto FC won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Columbus Crew and Toronto FC?
Recent form — Columbus Crew 4W 0D 1L; Toronto FC 1W 1D 3L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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