Inter Miami v New York City FC prediction
Team pages: Inter Miami · New York City FC · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Inter Miami v New York City FC, Major League Soccer on Thu, 15 Oct 2026 00:30 BST.
The match
Inter Miami host New York City FC in Major League Soccer on Thursday 15 October (kick-off 00:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Inter Miami or New York City FC (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.
The key numbers
Inter Miami have scored in 15 consecutive matches — every result checked. Inter Miami have scored 68 goals, the most of the 30 clubs (2026 so far).
Inter Miami are unbeaten in the last six meetings with New York City FC, every meeting checked.
Form and the table
13 of Inter Miami’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (87%). Both teams scored in 13 of Inter Miami’s last 15 results (87%). At home, Inter Miami have three wins, four draws and three defeats in their last 10 home matches — 1.30 points per game, scoring 2.70 and conceding 1.80. Inter Miami have conceded 50 goals, the 12th-most (shared) of the 30 clubs (2026 so far).
New York City FC are winless in their last three matches. Eight of New York City FC’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in 11 of New York City FC’s last 15 results (73%). Away from home, New York City FC have one win, three draws and three defeats in their last 7 away matches — 0.86 points per game, scoring 1.29 and conceding 1.43. New York City FC have scored 42 goals, the 15th-fewest (shared) of the 30 clubs (2026 so far). New York City FC have conceded 38 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 30 clubs.
Inter Miami (second) and New York City FC (10th) are 16 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Inter Miami the stronger side, 122 rating points above New York City FC (Inter Miami 1583, New York City FC 1461, after at least 232 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 22 March 2026, finished New York City FC 2–3 Inter Miami.
Team news
Inter Miami have four names on the availability list: F. Mura (out, Ankle Injury), M. Silvetti (out, Injury), T. Allende (out, Knee Injury) and Y. Bright (out, Foot Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-14. Predicted Inter Miami XI (4-3-3): D. St.Clair, Casemiro, M. Falcon, I. Fray, F. Caicedo, R. de Paul, T. Segovia, M. Galarza, L. Messi, L. Suarez, G. Berterame — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, L. Messi (8.0 per match over 28 appearances, 26 goals and 12 assists) and R. de Paul (4.5 per match over 27 appearances, five goals and nine assists) have been Inter Miami’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Inter Miami (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), L. Messi averages 4.0 shots per 90 over 3373 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. R. de Paul averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 3185 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.
New York City FC have seven names on the availability list: A. Farnos (out, Injury), D. Baiera (out, Knee Injury), K. Parks (out, Injury), K. Trewin (out, Ankle Injury), M. Ilenic (out, Illness), M. Moralez (out, Knee Injury) and one more — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-14. Predicted New York City FC XI (4-2-3-1): M. Freese, T. Martins, J. Sands, N. Cavallo, T. Gray, A. Perea, N. Fernández, A. Ojeda, A. O'Neill, J. Shore, Luighi — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Nicolás Fernández (6.1 per match over 30 appearances, 15 goals and five assists) and Agustin Ojeda (3.7 per match over 30 appearances, five goals and 10 assists) have been New York City FC’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for New York City FC (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Nicolás Fernández averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 2652 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Agustin Ojeda averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 2456 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Major League Soccer · Nu Stadium
- Referee: Lorenzo Hernandez
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Inter Miami 3 · draws 3 · New York City FC 0 · 3.83 goals/game
- Recent form: Inter Miami 1W 3D 1L · New York City FC 1W 1D 3L
Inter Miami v New York City FC (Major League Soccer): TACTIX’s calibrated model has priced this fixture across 246 markets — the full record, losers included, is published live (as of 14 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Inter Miami for / against | Line | New York City FC for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 2.5 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.75our book | 1 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4.13 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 4.38 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 14.38 for · 12.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 10.63 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 6.25 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 3.75 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 15.13 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.13 for · 13.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 3.13 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.38 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
Referee: Lorenzo Hernandez.
Inter Miami
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Shaw n 7 | 15.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | — |
| Matías Galarza n 8 | 73.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | — |
| Ezequiel Abadia-Reda n 5 | 12.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | — |
| D. Ayala n 8 | 28.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | — |
| F. Caicedo n 6 | 75.2 | 2.6 | 0.4 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| L. Messi n 8 | 82.4 | 5.3 | 3.7 |
| L. Delinois n 4 | 48.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| L. Suarez n 8 | 83.5 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| A. Shaw n 7 | 15.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| G. Berterame n 8 | 74.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| L. Messi n 8 | 82.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| A. Shaw n 7 | 15.7 | 0.8 | 0 |
| L. Suarez n 8 | 83.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| R. de Paul n 8 | 80.9 | 0 | 0.6 |
| T. Segovia n 8 | 67.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Yannick Bright n 8 | 83.8 | 3.6 |
| F. Caicedo n 6 | 75.2 | 3.4 |
| Matías Galarza n 8 | 73.3 | 3.1 |
| Ezequiel Abadia-Reda n 5 | 12.6 | 2.9 |
| A. Shaw n 7 | 15.7 | 2.5 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| R. Rios n 8 | 94.5 | 3.7 |
| D. St.Clair n 8 | 83.5 | 2 |
New York City FC
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Jones n 8 | 23.1 | 4.4 | 1.5 | — |
| Luighi n 8 | 53.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | — |
| Talles Magno n 8 | 46.1 | 1.7 | 2 | — |
| Keaton Parks n 8 | 69.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | — |
| Raul Gustavo n 8 | 57.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Talles Magno n 8 | 46.1 | 2.9 | 1 |
| A. Martínez n 8 | 68.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| Luighi n 8 | 53.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Malachi Jones n 8 | 23.1 | 1.9 | 0 |
| M. Ilenič n 8 | 46.5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ojeda n 8 | 83.6 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Talles Magno n 8 | 46.1 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Luighi n 8 | 53.9 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Nicolás Fernández n 8 | 90.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| A. Martínez n 8 | 68.5 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Aiden O'Neill n 8 | 48 | 3 |
| Nico Cavallo n 8 | 69 | 2.4 |
| B. Traoré n 8 | 54.8 | 2.1 |
| J. Shore n 8 | 42.5 | 1.9 |
| Tayvon Gray n 8 | 74.3 | 1.8 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Freese n 8 | 84.4 | 3.3 |
| T. Romero n 8 | 82.4 | 3 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Inter Miami v New York City FC — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-03-22 New York City FC 2–3 Inter Miami
- 2025-11-29 Inter Miami 5–1 New York City FC
- 2025-09-24 New York City FC 0–4 Inter Miami
- 2025-02-23 Inter Miami 2–2 New York City FC
- 2024-09-21 New York City FC 1–1 Inter Miami
- 2024-03-30 Inter Miami 1–1 New York City FC
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Inter Miami v New York City FC?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Inter Miami v New York City FC is Home or Away (best price 1.19 at Betano).
- What is the head-to-head record between Inter Miami and New York City FC?
- In their last 6 meetings, Inter Miami won 3, New York City FC won 0 and there were 3 draws, averaging 3.83 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Inter Miami and New York City FC?
- Recent form — Inter Miami 1W 3D 1L; New York City FC 1W 1D 3L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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