Free model picks
League One predictions: free model picks, graded
6 League One fixtures kick off in the next 10 days, starting with Alloa Athletic v Queen of the South (Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST). 6 of them carry a free TACTIX model pick, shown with the best bookmaker price. Ross County lead the table on 28 points after 10 games, level with Hamilton Academical.
A free TACTIX model pick for every upcoming League One fixture, with the best bookmaker price. Our model is calibrated to ±0.5% across 8M+ settled predictions — the full win probability, xG and value across 30+ markets are part of Pro.
Updated · picks refresh daily · live track record
Key facts
As of 19 October 2026: After 10 games Ross County top League One with 28 points, Hamilton Academical next on the same total (this season so far).
As of 19 October 2026: Across 54 matches (this season so far), League One has produced 2.87 goals per game.
This round at a glance
- Strongest favourite among the free picks: Hamilton Academical v East Fife (Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST) — the free pick is Hamilton Academical to win.
- Closest call: Alloa Athletic v Queen of the South (Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST) — the smallest gap of the round between the two sides’ chances of winning, by the model.
- Likeliest draw: Alloa Athletic v Queen of the South (Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST) — the highest draw chance of the round, by the model.
- Most goals among the free picks: Ross County v Airdrie United (Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST) — the free pick is over 2.5 goals.
Each line ranks the model’s own probabilities for the round’s five matches (from Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST); the favourite and goals lines rank the free picks only. The probabilities themselves, and every market, are on each match page with Pro.
East Kilbride have scored in their last 9 (all competitions we cover)
Hamilton Academical have won their last 10 (all competitions we cover)
Airdrie United have scored in their last 10 (all competitions we cover)
Hamilton Academical have won their last 10 (all competitions we cover)
What the data says about League One
TACTIX lists six upcoming League One fixtures in the next ten days, six of them with a free model pick — the single strongest lean in the 62–80% probability band — shown with the best bookmaker price at build time. Across the whole estate the model runs at ±0.5% mean calibration error across an 8M+-prediction track record; the record is published live, losing predictions included, on the scoreboard and as a hash-chained pre-commitment ledger, so any pick can be checked against what was written before kick-off. In League One specifically, the last 30 days of settled free picks read 15 from 20, every result kept. Expected goals, venue-adjusted team ratings and market prices feed one calibrated probability per market; a prediction is a probability, never a certainty. This page is regenerated daily (figures as of 19 Oct 2026) and every number in this paragraph is computed at build time, never typed in. Scoreboard · Ledger · How accurate is TACTIX?
This matchweek in numbers
Six fixtures in League One fall inside the next 10 days, starting with Alloa Athletic v Queen of the South (Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST). TACTIX’s free pick is posted on 6 of the six fixtures in the next 10 days; the remaining markets on every match are Pro. Recent record: the free League One pick landed 15 of 20 over the last 30 days (every pick graded as shown).
The table so far
Ross County lead League One on 28 points from 10 games, level with Hamilton Academical (this season so far). League One is averaging 2.87 goals a game across 54 matches, this season so far.
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League One at a glance
Long-run averages the model fits for League One — the baseline every League One match starts from before team form.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 6 | +32 | 28 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 3 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Montrose | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 16 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 13 |
| 6 | Alloa Athletic | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Peterhead | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 10 |
| 8 | Queen of the South | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 34 | -22 | 10 |
| 9 | East Fife | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 6 |
Current League One standings — tap a club for its form, fixtures and model outlook.
Model record · last 30 days
How the free (Bronze) League One pick shown on each match has settled over the last 30 days — every result, win or lose. 1-unit flat stakes at the price shown.
How these picks work
Each card shows the model’s free pick and the best price we can find across UK bookmakers. We surface one pick per match free; the complete forecast — calibrated win probability, expected goals and value vs the market — opens with TACTIX Pro. We lead with calibration, not an inflated accuracy headline, and the live record (losers included) is on the scoreboard. To see the probability a price implies, and its fair odds with the bookmaker’s margin removed, use the odds calculator.
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See the full forecast
Win probability, xG and value across 30+ markets for every fixture.