Bournemouth v Sunderland prediction
Team pages: Bournemouth · Sunderland
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Bournemouth vs Sunderland, Premier League on Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:00 BST.
The match
Bournemouth host Sunderland in the Premier League on Sunday 18 October (kick-off 14:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
Form and the table
10 of Bournemouth’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 11 of Bournemouth’s last 15 results (73%). At home, Bournemouth have two wins, four draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches — 1.43 points per game, scoring 1.86 and conceding 1.00. Bournemouth have scored seven goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Bournemouth have conceded 13 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.
Six of Sunderland’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in seven of Sunderland’s last 15 results (47%). Away from home, Sunderland have one win, two draws and three defeats in their last 6 away matches — 0.83 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 2.33. Sunderland have scored six goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Sunderland have conceded 12 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.
Bournemouth (18th) and Sunderland (17th) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Bournemouth the stronger side, 25 rating points above Sunderland (Bournemouth 1556, Sunderland 1531, after at least 44 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 28 February 2026, finished Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland.
Team news
Predicted Bournemouth XI (4-2-3-1): Đ. Petrović, J. Hill, A. Silva, A. Truffert, A. Smith, Rayan, M. Tavernier, A. Scott, T. Adams, J. Kluivert, Evanilson — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Alex Scott (5.4 per match over six appearances, one goal and one assist) and Adrien Truffert (4.4 per match over seven appearances, one assist) have been Bournemouth’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bournemouth (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Alex Scott averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 626 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last eight appearances. Adrien Truffert averages 3.4 tackles per 90 over 804 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last nine appearances.
Predicted Sunderland XI (4-2-3-1): R. Roefs, N. Mukiele, D. Ballard, Reinildo, K. Danso, G. Xhaka, E. Le Fée, N. Sadiki, N. Angulo, T. Meunier, B. Brobbey — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Enzo Le Fée (4.9 per match over seven appearances, two goals and one assist) and N. Mukiele (4.6 per match over six appearances) have been Sunderland’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Sunderland (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Enzo Le Fée averages 2.2 key passes per 90 over 610 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last seven appearances. N. Mukiele averages 2.8 tackles per 90 over 540 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last six appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Premier League · Vitality Stadium
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 2): Bournemouth 0 · draws 1 · Sunderland 1 · 3.5 goals/game
- Recent form: Bournemouth 2W 1D 2L · Sunderland 2W 0D 3L
Bournemouth v Sunderland (Premier League): TACTIX’s calibrated model has priced this fixture across 246 markets — the full record, losers included, is published live (as of 14 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Bournemouth for / against | Line | Sunderland for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.63 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.75our book | 1 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5.13 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 5.75 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 15.5 for · 10.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 13.88 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5.13 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.5 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 12.38 for · 12.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.88 for · 14.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.88 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.13 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
Bournemouth
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Adams n 8 | 69.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | — |
| D. Brooks n 8 | 30.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | — |
| J. Soler n 8 | 39.5 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Á. Rodríguez n 8 | 39 | 2 | 2.9 | — |
| J. Kluivert n 8 | 58.6 | 1.9 | 1.7 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Á. Rodríguez n 8 | 39 | 2.9 | 0.6 |
| R. Christie n 8 | 54.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| B. Doak n 8 | 33.3 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Rayan n 8 | 63.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| J. Kluivert n 8 | 58.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| R. Christie n 8 | 54.6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| D. Jebbison n 8 | 35.6 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Evanilson n 8 | 82.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Rayan n 8 | 63.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| M. Tavernier n 8 | 75.1 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Juanlu Sánchez n 8 | 23.6 | 4.8 |
| Adrien Truffert n 8 | 89.3 | 3.5 |
| A. Tóth n 8 | 36 | 2.8 |
| B. Doak n 8 | 33.3 | 2.7 |
| Alex Scott n 8 | 78.3 | 2.4 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Đ. Petrović n 8 | 90 | 2.8 |
| M. Di Gregorio n 8 | 84.4 | 2.1 |
Sunderland
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Isidor n 8 | 44.1 | 2.3 | 1.8 | — |
| Jules Ahoka n 5 | 73.6 | 2 | 1.5 | — |
| Dan Ballard n 8 | 75.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | — |
| B. Brobbey n 8 | 66.3 | 1.9 | 2 | — |
| N. Mukiele n 8 | 90 | 1.8 | 0.9 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. T. Bi n 3 | 46 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| W. Isidor n 8 | 44.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| E. Le Fée n 8 | 87.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| M. Fofana n 8 | 37.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| H. Diarra n 8 | 35.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| H. Diarra n 8 | 35.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| C. Rigg n 8 | 30 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| D. Methalie n 8 | 63.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| C. Talbi n 8 | 41.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| B. Brobbey n 8 | 66.3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| T. Hume n 8 | 77.3 | 3.9 |
| Jules Ahoka n 5 | 73.6 | 3.2 |
| J. T. Bi n 3 | 46 | 2.6 |
| N. Mukiele n 8 | 90 | 2.4 |
| Reinildo n 8 | 87.9 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Ellborg n 8 | 90 | 3.4 |
| R. Roefs n 8 | 84.9 | 1.3 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Bournemouth v Sunderland — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-02-28 Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland
- 2025-11-29 Sunderland 3–2 Bournemouth
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Bournemouth v Sunderland is Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Sunderland?
- In their last 2 meetings, Bournemouth won 0, Sunderland won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Bournemouth and Sunderland?
- Recent form — Bournemouth 2W 1D 2L; Sunderland 2W 0D 3L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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