Leeds v Manchester United prediction

Premier League · · Elland Road

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Leeds · Manchester United · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Leeds v Manchester United, Premier League on Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:00 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 648 landed (95% range 61.8–69.1%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Leeds host Manchester United in the Premier League on Sunday 18 October (kick-off 14:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Manchester United are winless in their last five matches.

Form and the table

Seven of Leeds’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Leeds’s last 15 results (53%). At home, Leeds have four wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 6 home matches — 2.33 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 0.50. Leeds have scored eight goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Leeds have conceded five goals, the fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Eight of Manchester United’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in eight of Manchester United’s last 15 results (53%). Away from home, Manchester United have two wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches — 1.29 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.00. Manchester United have scored nine goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Manchester United have conceded nine goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Leeds (seventh) and Manchester United (13th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Leeds the stronger side, 44 rating points above Manchester United (Leeds 1690, Manchester United 1646, after at least 158 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 13 April 2026, finished Manchester United 1–2 Leeds.

Team news

Predicted Leeds XI (3-5-2): J. Trafford, T. Muharemović, N. Elvedi, J. Justin, E. Ampadu, J. Bogle, A. Stach, G. Gudmundsson, A. Tanaka, D. Calvert-Lewin, N. Okafor — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, James Justin (5.1 per match over eight appearances, two goals) and Anton Stach (4.4 per match over eight appearances, one goal) have been Leeds’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Leeds (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), James Justin averages 3.2 tackles per 90 over 709 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last eight appearances. Anton Stach averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 626 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Manchester United XI (4-2-3-1): S. Lammens, H. Maguire, L. Martínez, L. Shaw, D. Dalot, B. Fernandes, Y. Tielemans, B. Mbeumo, K. Mainoo, M. Rashford, M. Cunha — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Bruno Fernandes (4.5 per match over nine appearances, four goals and one assist) and Youri Tielemans (4.1 per match over nine appearances, two assists) have been Manchester United’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Manchester United (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bruno Fernandes averages 2.7 key passes per 90 over 1676 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Youri Tielemans averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 1656 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Premier League · Elland Road
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Leeds 1 · draws 2 · Manchester United 3 · 3.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Leeds 1W 2D 2L · Manchester United 0W 2D 3L

Leeds v Manchester United (Premier League): TACTIX’s calibrated model has priced this fixture across 246 markets — the full record, losers included, is published live (as of 14 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.63 / 1.88
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
4.13 / 6.25
Corners
against 4 / 3.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 5.63
Shots on target
against 4.75 / 3.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 1.5
Cards
against 2.5 / 2.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 13 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 13 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLeeds for / againstLineManchester United for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8
3our book
1.88 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
4.13 for · 4 against n 8
9.5standard
6.25 for · 3.63 against n 8
Shots
12.88 for · 13.75 against n 8
19.5standard
18.25 for · 12 against n 8
Shots on target
4.25 for · 4.75 against n 8
8.5standard
5.63 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.88 for · 12.38 against n 8
21.5standard
10.38 for · 11.5 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2.5 against n 8
3.5standard
1.5 for · 2.75 against n 8
Leeds
Leeds — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Stach n 863
2.15/4
1.34/3
—
Dominic Calvert-Lewin n 858.3
2.16/3
1.24/2
—
S. Longstaff n 827.4
2.14/1
1.23/0
—
A. Tanaka n 851.3
1.84/3
0.73/0
—
E. Ampadu n 890
1.66/5
0.64/1
—
Leeds — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. James n 845.5
2.26/3
12/2
A. Tanaka n 851.3
24/3
0.21/0
S. Longstaff n 827.4
1.63/1
0.82/0
Dominic Calvert-Lewin n 858.3
1.55/2
1.45/2
L. Nmecha n 839.3
1.44/1
00/0
Leeds — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Dominic Calvert-Lewin n 858.3
0.63/0
0.21/0
L. Nmecha n 839.3
00/0
0.62/0
H. Wilson n 837
00/0
0.62/0
D. James n 845.5
0.52/0
00/0
T. Muharemović n 890
0.32/0
0.11/0
Leeds — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Justin n 888.6
3.28/6
A. Stach n 863
2.97/6
A. Tanaka n 851.3
2.25/4
E. Ampadu n 890
27/5
M. Bard n 867.6
1.75/3
Leeds — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Zetterer n 890
4.38/5
J. Trafford n 890
3.48/5
Manchester United
Manchester United — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Dorgu n 844
3.15/4
24/3
—
S. Lacey n 724.6
2.12/2
2.12/2
—
Matheus Cunha n 866.1
1.55/3
1.96/4
—
C. Baleba n 858.9
1.56/2
1.96/3
—
J. Zirkzee n 824.5
1.42/1
0.51/0
—
Manchester United — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Lacey n 724.6
3.15/1
12/0
J. Zirkzee n 824.5
2.84/1
1.83/1
A. Diallo n 850.3
2.76/5
1.85/3
P. Dorgu n 844
2.66/3
0.52/0
M. Rashford n 862.8
2.35/3
1.13/3
Manchester United — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Benjamin Šeško n 842.4
1.14/0
00/0
A. Diallo n 850.3
0.73/0
0.21/0
Matheus Cunha n 866.1
0.32/0
0.32/0
B. Mbeumo n 879.5
0.43/0
0.11/0
P. Dorgu n 844
00/0
0.52/0
Manchester United — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
P. Dorgu n 844
4.35/3
M. Mount n 842.6
3.77/3
Leny Yoro n 856
3.47/6
H. Amass n 871.5
3.37/5
Andrey Santos n 845.3
3.26/5
Manchester United — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
S. Lammens n 890
3.86/4
K. Darlow n 890
3.56/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Leeds v Manchester United — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LeedsDLWDL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.8 scored / 2 conceded per game
Manchester UnitedLLDDL
Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Leeds 1 · 2 draws · Manchester United 3 · 3.83 goals/game
  • 2026-04-13 Manchester United 1–2 Leeds
  • 2026-01-04 Leeds 1–1 Manchester United
  • 2023-02-12 Leeds 0–2 Manchester United
  • 2023-02-08 Manchester United 2–2 Leeds
  • 2022-02-20 Leeds 2–4 Manchester United
  • 2021-08-14 Manchester United 5–1 Leeds
League standing · 2026/27
Leeds#7 pos9 pts6 pl+3 GD
Manchester United#13 pos6 pts6 pl0 GD
Goals per game
Leeds scored1.33
Manchester United scored1.5
Leeds conceded0.83
Manchester United conceded1.5

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Leeds v Manchester United?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Leeds v Manchester United is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Manchester United?
In their last 6 meetings, Leeds won 1, Manchester United won 3 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Leeds and Manchester United?
Recent form — Leeds 1W 2D 2L; Manchester United 0W 2D 3L.

Today’s boards

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