Liverpool v Arsenal prediction

Premier League · Sun, 01 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT · Anfield

Updated 29 Oct 2026, 11:03 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Liverpool · Arsenal · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Liverpool v Arsenal, Premier League on Sun, 01 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.1% of 586 landed (95% range 63.2–70.7%); it had given them 76.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 479 of 729 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.1%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Liverpool host Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday 1 November (kick-off 16:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Arsenal have conceded five goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions. Liverpool have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions. Arsenal have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Liverpool’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 10 of Liverpool’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Liverpool have four wins, four draws and one defeat in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 1.78 points per game, scoring 1.67 and conceding 1.33. Liverpool have scored 11 goals, the ninth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Liverpool have conceded eight goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Eight of Arsenal’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in six of Arsenal’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Arsenal have five wins, three draws and one defeat in their last 9 away matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.44 and conceding 1.00. Arsenal have scored 13 goals, the fifth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Liverpool (fourth) and Arsenal (second) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Arsenal the stronger side, 88 rating points above Liverpool (Arsenal 1889, Liverpool 1801, after at least 350 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Liverpool are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Arsenal. The most recent meeting, on 8 January 2026, finished Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool.

Team news

Predicted Liverpool XI (4-2-3-1): A. Becker, V. van Dijk, R. Araújo, J. Jacquet, K. Tsimikas, R. Gravenberch, A. Mac Allister, T. Nyoni, F. Wirtz, B. Barcola, A. Isak — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Cody Gakpo (6.6 per match over nine appearances, three goals and five assists) and Dominik Szoboszlai (4.5 per match over eight appearances, three goals) have been Liverpool’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Liverpool (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Cody Gakpo averages 1.7 shots per 90 over 1507 minutes, with a shot in five of the last 10 appearances. Dominik Szoboszlai averages 3.1 key passes per 90 over 1300 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Arsenal XI (4-2-3-1): D. Raya, E. Konsa, G. Magalhães, B. White, J. Timber, M. Ødegaard, D. Rice, E. Eze, B. Guimarães, N. Madueke, V. Gyökeres — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Bukayo Saka (4.7 per match over 11 appearances, four goals and one assist) and Declan Rice (4.3 per match over 12 appearances, one goal and four assists) have been Arsenal’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Arsenal (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bukayo Saka averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 1364 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Declan Rice averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 1623 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 01 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT · Premier League · Anfield
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Liverpool 2 · draws 3 · Arsenal 1 · 2.5 goals/game
Recent form: Liverpool 4W 1D 0L · Arsenal 3W 2D 0L

Liverpool v Arsenal (Premier League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.38 / 1.88

Goals

against 1.5 / 1.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

6.29 / 5.71

Corners

against 4 / 3.71 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

5.57 / 4.57

Shots on target

against 3.43 / 3.29 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.86 / 1.14

Cards

against 2.29 / 2.14 · 1 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 28 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Liverpool for / against	Line	Arsenal for / against
Goals scored	2.38 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	1.88 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.29 for · 4 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	5.71 for · 3.71 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	17 for · 13.43 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	13.57 for · 10.71 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	5.57 for · 3.43 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	4.57 for · 3.29 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.71 for · 9.86 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	10.57 for · 13.57 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.86 for · 2.29 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	1.14 for · 2.14 against n 7 Last 5

Liverpool

Liverpool Goalkeeper

Liverpool — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Alisson Becker	11	90990 min	232.1 /90	90.8 /90	00 /90
G. Mamardashvili	1	9090 min	55 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Liverpool — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Liverpool before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Alisson Becker n 8	90	1.8 4/2
G. Mamardashvili n 8	86	3.7 8/6

Liverpool Defensive

Liverpool — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Jérémy Jacquet	12	80956 min	252.4 /90	191.8 /90	100.9 /90	565.3 /90	100.9 /90	20.2 /90
V. van Dijk	11	84928 min	90.9 /90	111.1 /90	10.1 /90	454.4 /90	60.6 /90	20.2 /90
R. Araújo	11	70769 min	91.1 /90	60.7 /90	50.6 /90	424.9 /90	40.5 /90	20.2 /90
M. Kerkez	10	83832 min	202.2 /90	80.9 /90	40.4 /90	454.9 /90	161.7 /90	30.3 /90
Jeremie Frimpong	7	58404 min	92 /90	51.1 /90	00 /90	163.6 /90	61.3 /90	20.4 /90
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Liverpool — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Liverpool before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Jérémy Jacquet n 8	78.6	0.7 5/0	0.4 2/1	—
Alisson Becker n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
V. van Dijk n 8	82.3	0.8 4/2	0.5 2/2	—
F. Wirtz n 8	75.9	1.6 6/2	1.2 4/3	—
A. Mac Allister n 8	79.9	1.3 4/3	1 4/3	—
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Liverpool — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Liverpool before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Jérémy Jacquet n 8	78.6	2.4 7/5
V. van Dijk n 8	82.3	0.5 3/1
F. Wirtz n 8	75.9	2.2 7/5
A. Mac Allister n 8	79.9	1.4 7/3
R. Araújo n 8	71.1	1.1 4/2
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Liverpool Attacking

Liverpool — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Isak	9	76683 min	60.8 /90	10.1 /90	192.5 /90	91.2 /90	81.1 /90	60.8 /90
L. Koumas	4	79317 min	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	72 /90	30.9 /90	10.3 /90	20.6 /90
F. Wirtz	11	77849 min	10.1 /90	30.3 /90	171.8 /90	70.7 /90	303.2 /90	121.3 /90
A. Mac Allister	11	75827 min	40.4 /90	10.1 /90	192.1 /90	70.8 /90	161.7 /90	70.8 /90
B. Barcola	10	59592 min	30.5 /90	20.3 /90	152.3 /90	71.1 /90	81.2 /90	142.1 /90
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Liverpool — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Liverpool before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Jérémy Jacquet n 8	78.6	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
Alisson Becker n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
V. van Dijk n 8	82.3	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
F. Wirtz n 8	75.9	2.1 5/3	0.6 2/2
A. Mac Allister n 8	79.9	2.4 6/4	0.8 5/1
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Liverpool — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Liverpool before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Jérémy Jacquet n 8	78.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
Alisson Becker n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
V. van Dijk n 8	82.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Wirtz n 8	75.9	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
A. Mac Allister n 8	79.9	0.6 3/1	0.1 1/0
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Arsenal

Arsenal Goalkeeper

Arsenal — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
David Raya	12	901080 min	282.3 /90	50.4 /90	10.1 /90
Kepa Arrizabalaga	1	9090 min	11 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Arsenal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
David Raya n 8	90	2.4 7/4
Kepa Arrizabalaga n 8	89.6	1.8 5/2

Arsenal Defensive

Arsenal — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Gabriel Magalhães	13	871125 min	141.1 /90	171.4 /90	90.7 /90	493.9 /90	141.1 /90	20.2 /90
E. Konsa	10	86855 min	111.2 /90	101.1 /90	20.2 /90	454.7 /90	90.9 /90	10.1 /90
Riccardo Calafiori	10	76762 min	121.4 /90	50.6 /90	20.2 /90	313.7 /90	60.7 /90	10.1 /90
Ben White	9	78706 min	172.2 /90	50.6 /90	20.3 /90	384.8 /90	40.5 /90	00 /90
J. Timber	6	54324 min	71.9 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90	164.4 /90	41.1 /90	00 /90
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Arsenal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Gabriel Magalhães n 8	84.4	1.1 6/1	0.9 5/2	—
David Raya n 8	90	0 0/0	0.8 4/2	—
Declan Rice n 8	87.6	0.6 4/1	0.5 3/1	—
Martin Ødegaard n 8	78.4	0.4 2/1	1 5/2	—
K. Havertz n 8	55.1	1.6 6/2	1.2 4/2	—
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Arsenal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 8	84.4	1.5 6/3
Declan Rice n 8	87.6	2.2 7/5
Martin Ødegaard n 8	78.4	0.4 3/0
K. Havertz n 8	55.1	0.2 1/0
Bruno Guimarães n 8	55.4	3.5 6/4
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Arsenal Attacking

Arsenal — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
K. Havertz	12	65774 min	30.3 /90	10.1 /90	151.7 /90	80.9 /90	101.2 /90	20.2 /90
Viktor Gyökeres	9	45401 min	00 /90	20.4 /90	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	122.7 /90	00 /90
Declan Rice	12	82989 min	10.1 /90	40.4 /90	70.6 /90	10.1 /90	181.6 /90	40.4 /90
Martin Ødegaard	12	78935 min	40.4 /90	10.1 /90	141.3 /90	80.8 /90	272.6 /90	111.1 /90
Bruno Guimarães	11	48532 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	122 /90	50.8 /90	30.5 /90	71.2 /90
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Arsenal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 8	84.4	0.5 3/1	0.3 1/1
David Raya n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Declan Rice n 8	87.6	0.6 4/1	0.1 1/0
Martin Ødegaard n 8	78.4	1.3 4/3	0.6 3/1
K. Havertz n 8	55.1	2 5/4	0.6 3/0
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Arsenal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 8	84.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
David Raya n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Declan Rice n 8	87.6	0.1 1/0	0.4 3/0
Martin Ødegaard n 8	78.4	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
K. Havertz n 8	55.1	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Liverpool v Arsenal — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

LiverpoolWWWWD

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 3 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

ArsenalWWDWD

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.8 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Liverpool 2 · 3 draws · Arsenal 1 · 2.5 goals/game

2026-01-08 Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool
2025-08-31 Liverpool 1–0 Arsenal
2025-05-11 Liverpool 2–2 Arsenal
2024-10-27 Arsenal 2–2 Liverpool
2024-02-04 Arsenal 3–1 Liverpool
2024-01-07 Arsenal 0–2 Liverpool

League standing · 2026/27

Liverpool#4 pos15 pts8 pl+3 GD

Arsenal#2 pos21 pts8 pl+8 GD

Goals per game

Liverpool scored1.38

Arsenal scored1.63

Liverpool conceded1

Arsenal conceded0.63

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Liverpool v Arsenal?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Liverpool v Arsenal is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Arsenal?: In their last 6 meetings, Liverpool won 2, Arsenal won 1 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Liverpool and Arsenal?: Recent form — Liverpool 4W 1D 0L; Arsenal 3W 2D 0L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 29 Oct 2026, 11:03 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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