Newcastle v Aston Villa prediction
Team pages: Newcastle · Aston Villa · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Away saves over 1.5 the free pick for Newcastle v Aston Villa, Premier League on Sat, 17 Oct 2026 17:30 BST.
The match
Newcastle host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday 17 October (kick-off 17:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Aston Villa saves over 1.5, a Bronze-tier call.
The key numbers
Newcastle have scored in eight consecutive matches.
Aston Villa have scored in five consecutive matches. 13 of Aston Villa’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (87%).
Form and the table
10 of Newcastle’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 11 of Newcastle’s last 15 results (73%). At home, Newcastle have four wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches — 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.29 and conceding 1.57. Newcastle have scored nine goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Newcastle have conceded nine goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.
Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last three matches. Both teams scored in 10 of Aston Villa’s last 15 results (67%). Away from home, Aston Villa have five wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 9 away matches — 1.89 points per game, scoring 1.89 and conceding 1.56. Aston Villa have scored six goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Aston Villa have conceded 11 goals, the sixth-most of the 20 clubs.
Newcastle (11th) and Aston Villa (15th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Aston Villa the stronger side, 12 rating points above Newcastle (Aston Villa 1593, Newcastle 1581, after at least 272 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 14 February 2026, finished Aston Villa 1–3 Newcastle.
Team news
Predicted Newcastle XI (4-2-3-1): L. Horníček, S. Botman, M. Thiaw, L. Hall, A. Dedić, H. Barnes, J. Willock, L. Miley, N. González, J. Murphy, Y. Wissa — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Lewis Hall (5.6 per match over eight appearances, one goal and two assists) and Harvey Barnes (4.6 per match over eight appearances, three goals and two assists) have been Newcastle’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Newcastle (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Lewis Hall averages 2.4 tackles per 90 over 1012 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Harvey Barnes averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 695 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last nine appearances.
Predicted Aston Villa XI (4-2-3-1): Z. Suzuki, V. Lindelöf, M. Cash, T. Mings, I. Maatsen, B. Kamara, J. McGinn, E. Buendía, R. Barkley, G. Hemmings, N. Jackson — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Johan Manzambi (4.7 per match over four appearances, one goal and two assists) and John McGinn (4.4 per match over nine appearances, two goals and three assists) have been Aston Villa’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Aston Villa (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Johan Manzambi averages 1.9 key passes per 90 over 878 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. John McGinn averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1499 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Premier League · St. James' Park
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Newcastle 3 · draws 1 · Aston Villa 2 · 3 goals/game
- Recent form: Newcastle 2W 1D 2L · Aston Villa 3W 1D 1L
As of 12 October 2026, TACTIX’s model — calibration published live, losing picks included — covers Newcastle v Aston Villa across 246 markets; the key numbers are on this page. See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Newcastle for / against | Line | Aston Villa for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.75 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 3our book | 1.5 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 6.13 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 3.88 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 13.88 for · 16 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 13.38 for · 15.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.63 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.63 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 12.13 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.25 for · 13.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.13 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.38 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
Newcastle
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joelinton n 8 | 70.3 | 2.9 | 0.3 | — |
| A. Bamba n 8 | 41 | 2.7 | 1.4 | — |
| Nico González n 8 | 65.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | — |
| J. Ramsey n 8 | 56.4 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Y. Wissa n 8 | 76.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Willock n 8 | 62.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| N. Woltemade n 8 | 36 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| H. Barnes n 8 | 84.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| B. Touré n 8 | 25.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Y. Wissa n 8 | 76.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| B. Touré n 8 | 25.8 | 0.9 | 0 |
| W. Osula n 8 | 60.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| H. Barnes n 8 | 84.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| A. Elanga n 8 | 62.5 | 0.7 | 0 |
| J. Ramsey n 8 | 56.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| J. Ramsey n 8 | 56.4 | 3.8 |
| A. Bamba n 8 | 41 | 3.6 |
| Joelinton n 8 | 70.3 | 2.2 |
| Lewis Hall n 8 | 86.3 | 2.1 |
| T. Livramento n 8 | 51 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| L. Horníček n 8 | 90 | 3 |
| E. Jaouen n 8 | 90 | 2.3 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Gomes n 8 | 81.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | — |
| George Hemmings n 8 | 70.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | — |
| M. Cash n 8 | 73.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | — |
| B. Kamara n 8 | 84.3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | — |
| E. Buendía n 8 | 70.3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Manzambi n 8 | 59 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| E. Buendía n 8 | 70.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| N. Jackson n 8 | 63.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| I. Mbaye n 8 | 35.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| R. Barkley n 8 | 54.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Manzambi n 8 | 59 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| T. Abraham n 8 | 30.8 | 0.7 | 0 |
| J. McGinn n 8 | 85.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| I. Mbaye n 8 | 35.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Alysson Edward n 8 | 18.4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| João Gomes n 8 | 81.8 | 4 |
| A. Wan-Bissaka n 8 | 56.1 | 3.8 |
| A. Garnacho n 8 | 30.6 | 3.3 |
| L. Bogarde n 8 | 42.6 | 2.6 |
| R. Barkley n 8 | 54.5 | 2.5 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Newcastle v Aston Villa — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-02-14 Aston Villa 1–3 Newcastle
- 2026-01-25 Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa
- 2025-08-16 Aston Villa 0–0 Newcastle
- 2025-04-19 Aston Villa 4–1 Newcastle
- 2024-12-26 Newcastle 3–0 Aston Villa
- 2024-01-30 Aston Villa 1–3 Newcastle
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Newcastle v Aston Villa?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Newcastle v Aston Villa is Away saves over 1.5.
- What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Aston Villa?
- In their last 6 meetings, Newcastle won 3, Aston Villa won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Newcastle and Aston Villa?
- Recent form — Newcastle 2W 1D 2L; Aston Villa 3W 1D 1L.
Today’s boards
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.