Hibernian v ST Mirren result

Full-time · Hibernian 1–1 ST Mirren

Premiership · Sun, 31 Aug 2025 15:00 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Hibernian · ST Mirren · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Hibernian 1–1 ST Mirren — this Premiership match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.4% of 170 landed (95% range 44.9–59.7%); it had given them 77.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Hibernian and ST Mirren drew 1–1 in the Premiership on Sunday 31 August. Hibernian have scored in 14 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — ST Mirren: Miguel Freckleton (61’, assisted by Declan John); Hibernian: R. Bushiri (70’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with R. Bushiri’s goal on 70 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Hibernian 0.00, ST Mirren 0.00, from 17 shots to 10 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Hibernian: M. Chaiwa (57’); ST Mirren: Alexandros Gogić (90+3’).

What it changes

Hibernian are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. ST Mirren are winless in their last five matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Miguel Freckleton (ST Mirren) 9.3, R. Bushiri (Hibernian) 5.4 and Declan John (ST Mirren) 4.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Hibernian next host Celtic on 25 October 2026.

ST Mirren next host Dundee on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Hibernian: Hibernian v Celtic, Sunday 25 October — the preview. Next for ST Mirren: ST Mirren v Dundee, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Hibernian 1–1 ST Mirren · Premiership
Referee: Matthew MacDermid, Scotland
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Hibernian 0 · draws 3 · ST Mirren 3 · 2.83 goals/game
Recent form: Hibernian 1W 2D 2L · ST Mirren 1W 3D 1L

Hibernian 1–1 ST Mirren (Premiership): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.88 / 1.75

Goals

against 1.63 / 0.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.6 / 3.5

Corners

against 3.6 / 5.5 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 4 matches

4.8 / 2.5

Shots on target

against 2.8 / 3.75 · 1 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 4 matches

2.86 / 3

Cards

against 4 / 2.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 4 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Hibernian for / against	Line	ST Mirren for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.75 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.6 for · 3.6 against n 5 Last 5	9.5standard	3.5 for · 5.5 against n 4 Last 5
Shots	12.2 for · 7.2 against n 5 Last 5	19.5standard	6.5 for · 8.75 against n 4 Last 5
Shots on target	4.8 for · 2.8 against n 5 Last 5	8.5standard	2.5 for · 3.75 against n 4 Last 5
Fouls committed	8.2 for · 10.2 against n 5 Last 5	21.5standard	9.75 for · 5.75 against n 4 Last 5
Cards shown	2.86 for · 4 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	3 for · 2.25 against n 4 Last 5

Referee: Matthew MacDermid, Scotland.

Hibernian

Hibernian — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
A. Manneh n 8	34.5	2.3 6/1	0.3 1/0	—
Kieron Bowie n 8	65.1	2.1 7/3	2.9 7/5	—
K. Megwa n 5	40.4	1.8 3/1	2.7 4/2	—
M. Chaiwa n 8	30.5	1.8 4/1	1.1 2/1	K. Baccus
J. Mulligan n 8	89.6	1.5 8/4	1.3 7/3	—

Hibernian — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Campbell n 8	41.5	2.7 6/2	0.8 2/1
Kieron Bowie n 8	65.1	2.6 5/4	1.7 4/3
T. Klidje n 8	39	2.6 7/2	1.4 4/1
M. Boyle n 8	75.4	2.2 5/5	1.2 5/3
É. Youan n 8	63.9	2.1 6/4	1.4 6/2

Hibernian — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Cadden n 8	36.3	0 0/0	1.2 4/0
M. Boyle n 8	75.4	0.7 5/0	0.1 1/0
É. Youan n 8	63.9	0.5 3/0	0.2 1/0
J. Hoilett n 8	51.9	0 0/0	0.7 2/1
Kieron Bowie n 8	65.1	0.5 2/1	0 0/0

Hibernian — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
K. Megwa n 5	40.4	3.1 3/2
J. Hoilett n 8	51.9	3 6/4
M. Chaiwa n 8	30.5	3 4/3
J. Mulligan n 8	89.6	2.4 7/6
G. Hanley n 8	40.4	2 3/3

Hibernian — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Smith n 8	93.8	2.8 6/4

ST Mirren

ST Mirren — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
K. Baccus n 8	78.5	2.6 6/5	1 6/1	M. Chaiwa
R. King n 5	76.4	2.1 4/2	0.2 1/0	—
E. Mooney n 8	16.3	2.1 2/1	1.4 2/0	—
J. Ayunga n 8	57.4	2 5/4	1 4/1	—
O. Smyth n 8	22.5	2 4/0	1 2/0	—

ST Mirren — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
C. McMenamin n 8	48.1	2.1 5/2	1.4 4/1
E. Mooney n 8	16.3	2.1 3/0	0 0/0
J. Ayunga n 8	57.4	1.8 6/2	1.4 5/2
M. Mandron n 8	84.5	1.7 5/4	0.7 3/2
R. Idowu n 8	49.1	1.4 4/1	0.7 3/0

ST Mirren — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. McMenamin n 8	48.1	0.5 2/0	0.2 1/0
E. Mooney n 8	16.3	0 0/0	0.7 1/0
J. Ayunga n 8	57.4	0.6 3/0	0 0/0
R. Idowu n 8	49.1	0 0/0	0.5 2/0
M. Mandron n 8	84.5	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0

ST Mirren — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
S. Tanser n 8	19.9	3.4 4/2
R. King n 5	76.4	3.1 4/4
M. Dijksteel n 8	37.3	3 5/3
O. Smyth n 8	22.5	3 3/3
M. Freckleton n 8	90	2.1 8/7

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Hibernian		ST Mirren
55%	Possession	45%
17	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	4
7	Shots off target	5
5	Blocked shots	1
16	Shots inside the box	6
10	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
7	Fouls	7
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	4
412	Passes	339
84%	Pass accuracy	79%

Hibernian player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
J. Smith	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.5
G. Hanley	90	0	1	0	0	0	0	7.3
R. Bushiri	90	1	2	1	0	1	0	7.3
M. Chaiwa	90	0	1	1	1	0	Y	6.5
D. Levitt	90	0	0	0	1	1	0	7.2
N. Cadden	90	0	2	0	3	1	0	7.3
T. Klidje	90	0	1	1	2	1	0	6.3
J. Iredale	82	0	0	0	2	1	0	7.3
C. Cadden	64	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.3
J. Hoilett	64	0	2	0	0	1	0	6.7
M. Boyle	64	0	1	1	0	0	0	7
J. McGrath sub	26	0	0	0	2	0	0	6.6
J. Mulligan sub	26	0	2	1	0	0	0	6.3
Kieron Bowie sub	26	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
J. Obita sub	8	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9

ST Mirren player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
S. George	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.2
M. Fraser	90	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	7.2
A. Gogić	90	0	0	1	0	0	1	Y	6.5
M. Freckleton	90	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	8.9
J. Richardson	90	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7
K. Baccus	90	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.3
Mark O'Hara	90	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	6.9
D. John	90	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	7.2
M. Mandron	90	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	6.9
J. Ayunga	81	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	6.5
K. Phillips	27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
R. King sub	63	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7
E. Mooney sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Hibernian v ST Mirren — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

HibernianDLWLD

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 2 scored / 2 conceded per game

ST MirrenWLDDD

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 0.8 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Hibernian 0 · 3 draws · ST Mirren 3 · 2.83 goals/game

2025-05-14 ST Mirren 2–2 Hibernian
2025-02-16 ST Mirren 0–0 Hibernian
2024-11-09 Hibernian 1–2 ST Mirren
2024-08-04 ST Mirren 3–0 Hibernian
2024-02-03 Hibernian 0–3 ST Mirren
2023-11-08 ST Mirren 2–2 Hibernian

League standing · 2025/26

Hibernian#5 pos57 pts38 pl+14 GD

ST Mirren#5 pos34 pts38 pl-25 GD

Goals per game

Hibernian scored1.53

ST Mirren scored0.79

Hibernian conceded1.16

ST Mirren conceded1.45

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Hibernian v ST Mirren?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Hibernian v ST Mirren was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Hibernian and ST Mirren?: In their last 6 meetings, Hibernian won 0, ST Mirren won 3 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Hibernian and ST Mirren?: Recent form — Hibernian 1W 2D 2L; ST Mirren 1W 3D 1L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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