Benfica v Estoril result

Full-time · Benfica 2–1 Estoril

Primeira Liga · · Estádio José Alvalade

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Benfica · Estoril · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Benfica 2–1 Estoril — Benfica won this Primeira Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.29 at Betano
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 645 landed (95% range 61.8–69.1%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Benfica beat Estoril 2–1 at Estádio José Alvalade in the Primeira Liga on Monday 31 August.

Estoril are winless in their last 12 matches.

The goals

Benfica led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Benfica: Vangelis Pavlidis (40’) and Clément Lenglet (51’, assisted by Tomás Araújo); Estoril: Yanis Begraoui (82’, assisted by Fernando Medrano).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Vangelis Pavlidis’s goal on 40 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Benfica 2.03, Estoril 0.36, from 25 shots to 4 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Estoril: Isma Sierra (75’).

What it changes

Benfica move down from fourth to fifth (three league matches played). Benfica are unbeaten in their last eight matches. Benfica have scored in 15 consecutive matches — every result checked.

Estoril move down from 16th to 17th (four league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica) 6.0, Tomás Araújo (Benfica) 5.5 and Yanis Begraoui (Estoril) 5.2 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 65.6% of the time in the last 90 days (423 of 645).

Next up

Benfica next travel to Omonia Nicosia on 22 October 2026.

Estoril next travel to Salgueiros on 18 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Benfica: Omonia Nicosia v Benfica, Thursday 22 October — the preview. Next for Estoril: Salgueiros v Estoril, Sunday 18 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Benfica 2–1 Estoril · Primeira Liga
  • Venue: Estádio José Alvalade · Lisbon
  • Referee: Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho, Portugal
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Benfica 6 · draws 0 · Estoril 0 · 3.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Benfica 3W 2D 0L · Estoril 0W 2D 3L

Benfica 2–1 Estoril (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 16 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

3.5 / 0.5
Goals
against 1 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.75
over 8 matches
5 / 4.63
Corners
against 1.29 / 5.38 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
7.29 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 1.43 / 3.88 · 3 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1 / 2.13
Cards
against 3.14 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 27 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 27 August 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBenfica for / againstLineEstoril for / against
Goals scored
3.5 for · 1 against n 8
3.75our book
0.5 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
5 for · 1.29 against n 7
9.5standard
4.63 for · 5.38 against n 8
Shots
13.57 for · 3.14 against n 7
19.5standard
11.38 for · 10.38 against n 8
Shots on target
7.29 for · 1.43 against n 7
8.5standard
3.75 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
8.14 for · 9.14 against n 7
21.5standard
12.63 for · 14 against n 8
Cards shown
1 for · 3.14 against n 7
3.5standard
2.13 for · 1.88 against n 8

Referee: Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho, Portugal.

Benfica
Benfica — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Rios n 828.5
4.76/4
2.86/1
—
Manu n 818.9
4.23/2
00/0
—
E. Barrenechea n 856.9
1.84/2
1.64/2
A. Tsoungui
A. Dedić n 872.1
1.75/4
1.15/2
—
J. Duran n 856.3
1.64/3
0.83/1
—
Benfica — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Lukebakio n 831.5
3.96/5
1.44/0
V. Pavlidis n 854
3.36/5
2.14/3
J. Duran n 856.3
2.47/2
1.25/1
G. Prestianni n 871.9
2.25/4
0.94/1
R. Rios n 828.5
23/1
0.41/0
Benfica — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
V. Pavlidis n 854
13/1
0.21/0
A. Schjelderup n 839.4
0.31/0
0.92/1
Rafa n 857.9
15/0
00/0
G. Prestianni n 871.9
0.32/0
0.63/1
J. Duran n 856.3
0.63/0
00/0
Benfica — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Schjelderup n 839.4
2.64/1
A. Dedić n 872.1
2.56/6
S. Dahl n 890.9
2.28/5
L. Barreiro n 877.9
2.27/5
A. Bah n 872.3
26/4
Benfica — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Samuel Soares n 886.8
3.17/5
Estoril
Estoril — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Tiago Brito n 823.8
3.86/2
1.43/0
—
Alejandro Marqués n 821.4
3.25/1
2.64/1
—
A. Tsoungui n 887.3
3.16/6
1.76/3
E. Barrenechea
Xeka n 872.6
2.58/3
1.24/3
—
Peixinho n 818.5
2.44/0
3.66/0
—
Estoril — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Peixinho n 818.5
33/1
1.22/0
André Lacximicant n 864.1
2.68/5
1.86/3
Fabrício Garcia n 820.4
1.72/1
00/0
Alejandro Marqués n 821.4
1.62/1
1.12/0
Y. Begraoui n 888.8
1.48/2
0.85/1
Estoril — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Peixinho n 818.5
0.61/0
00/0
Pizzi n 824.6
00/0
0.51/0
Alejandro Marqués n 821.4
0.51/0
00/0
André Lacximicant n 864.1
0.21/0
0.21/0
Gonçalo Costa n 825.8
00/0
0.41/0
Estoril — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Tiago Brito n 823.8
5.25/3
Ferro n 874
38/4
Fernando Medrano n 885.5
2.97/6
Pedro Carvalho n 825.3
2.75/1
Jandro Orellana n 849.4
2.54/4
Estoril — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Turk n 790
3.67/6
Joel Robles n 890
1.93/3

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BenficaEstoril
66%Possession34%
2.03Expected goals (xG)0.36
25Shots4
8Shots on target2
7Shots off target1
10Blocked shots1
15Shots inside the box3
9Corners0
2Offsides0
14Fouls12
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Saves6
616Passes327
89%Pass accuracy74%

Benfica player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Samuel Soares9000000006.6
A. Bah9000102307.3
Tomás Araújo9001101208
Clément Lenglet9010110008
S. Dahl9000112207
L. Barreiro9000111106.2
H. Sudakov8000104007.2
G. Prestianni8000311007.5
V. Pavlidis8010223007.5
Rafa6300111207.7
E. Barrenechea3100000107
João Palhinha sub5900311307.2
A. Schjelderup sub2700001006.3
Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira sub1000000106.2
D. Lukebakio sub1000001006.3
J. Duran sub1000000006.7

Estoril player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joel Robles9000000008.6
Ferro9000000207.5
Isma Sierra90000002Y6.5
A. Tsoungui9000000307.2
Y. Begraoui9010110007.6
João Carvalho9000000006.9
Fernando Medrano8201001206.2
S. Andreou7200100106.9
Ricard Sánchez7200001206.5
André Lacximicant7100111107.2
Xeka4500000106.3
J. Holsgrove sub4500000006.3
Peixinho sub1900000106.3
Pedro Carvalho sub1800000006.9
Fabrício Garcia sub1800000006.5
R. Guitane sub800000106.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Benfica v Estoril — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BenficaDDWWW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 3.2 scored / 1 conceded per game
EstorilDLDLL
Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Benfica 6 · 0 draws · Estoril 0 · 3.17 goals/game
  • 2026-05-16 Estoril 1–3 Benfica
  • 2026-01-03 Benfica 3–1 Estoril
  • 2025-05-03 Estoril 1–2 Benfica
  • 2024-12-23 Benfica 3–0 Estoril
  • 2024-03-10 Benfica 3–1 Estoril
  • 2023-10-07 Estoril 0–1 Benfica
League standing · 2026/27
Benfica#2 pos19 pts8 pl+17 GD
Estoril#18 pos2 pts8 pl-8 GD
Goals per game
Benfica scored3
Estoril scored0.5
Benfica conceded0.88
Estoril conceded1.5

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Benfica vs Estoril?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Benfica v Estoril was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.29 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estoril?
In their last 6 meetings, Benfica won 6, Estoril won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Benfica and Estoril?
Recent form — Benfica 3W 2D 0L; Estoril 0W 2D 3L.

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