Estoril v Estrela result
The model’s pre-match pick
Estoril 1–1 Estrela — this Primeira Liga match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.
The result
Estoril and Estrela drew 1–1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in the Primeira Liga on Monday 11 August. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Estrela out-shot Estoril 9 to 8 and created the better chances, 1.37 xG to 0.67 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.
The goals
Estoril led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Estoril: Tiago Parreira Parente (36’); Estrela: I. Stoica (75’, assisted by Rodrigo Pinho).
How it turned
Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with I. Stoica’s goal on 75 minutes.
Discipline
A. Rodrigues showed five yellow cards — against 3.7 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Estoril: Nodar Lominadze (25’), Kévin Boma (27’), Jordan Holsgrove (45+5’) and Patrick de Paula (49’); Estrela: Bernardo Schappo (90+6’).
What it changes
Estoril are seventh (shared) after this result (one league match played).
Estrela are seventh (shared) after this result (one league match played).
Estoril are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Estrela are winless in their last four matches in all competitions. Estoril have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.
Who stood out
By TACTIX Impact for this match, Tiago Parreira Parente (Estoril) 9.4, Jovane Cabral (Estrela) 4.7 and I. Stoica (Estrela) 4.0 led the match.
What the model said
The model’s free pick, Estoril or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 75.3% of the time in the last 90 days (1122 of 1490).
Next up
Estoril next host Moreirense on 25 October 2026.
Estrela next host Casa Pia on 24 October 2026.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
Next for Estoril: Estoril v Moreirense, Sunday 25 October — the preview. Next for Estrela: Estrela v Casa Pia, Saturday 24 October — the preview.
The numbers
- Result: Estoril 1–1 Estrela · Primeira Liga
- Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota · Estoril
- Referee: A. Rodrigues
- Model coverage: 182 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 4): Estoril 3 · draws 0 · Estrela 1 · 3.5 goals/game
- Recent form: Estoril 2W 1D 2L · Estrela 1W 0D 4L
Estoril 1–1 Estrela (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 182 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
The next free picks, by email
The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.
Match statistics & details
| Estoril | Estrela | |
|---|---|---|
| 65% | Possession | 35% |
| 0.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.37 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 0 | Shots off target | 3 |
| 5 | Blocked shots | 1 |
| 5 | Shots inside the box | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 509 | Passes | 266 |
| 83% | Pass accuracy | 72% |
Estoril player stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Robles | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| K. Boma | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Y | 6.3 |
| F. Bacher | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Pedro Amaral | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Tiago Parreira Parente | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 8.7 |
| João Carvalho | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7.3 |
| Pedro Carvalho | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| J. Holsgrove | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | Y | 6.9 |
| R. Guitane | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Y. Begraoui | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Nodar Lominadze | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Y | 6.5 |
| Patrick de Paula sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Y | 6.6 |
| Pizzi sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| André Lacximicant sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Fabrício Garcia sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Alejandro Marqués sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Tiago Brito sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
Estrela player stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan Ribeiro | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Luan Patrick | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Bernardo Schappo | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Y | 6.3 |
| A. Chernev | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7.7 |
| S. Lopes Cabral | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Paulo Moreira | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Jovane Cabral | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Alan Godoy | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Nilton Varela | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.2 |
| João Gastão | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Robinho | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| A. Marcus sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Kikas sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| I. Stoica sub | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Rodrigo Pinho sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| João Resende sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.
Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Estoril v Estrela — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2025-05-17 Estoril 4–0 Estrela
- 2025-01-05 Estrela 2–4 Estoril
- 2024-02-04 Estoril 1–0 Estrela
- 2023-08-25 Estrela 2–1 Estoril
The full post-match picture
Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.
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Frequently asked questions
- What was the model’s pick for Estoril v Estrela?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Estoril v Estrela was Home or Draw.
- What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Estrela?
- In their last 4 meetings, Estoril won 3, Estrela won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Estoril and Estrela?
- Recent form — Estoril 2W 1D 2L; Estrela 1W 0D 4L.
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