Estoril v Nacional result
Team pages: Estoril · Nacional
Estoril 1–1 Nacional — this Primeira Liga match was drawn.
The result
Estoril and Nacional drew 1–1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 26 October. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Estoril out-shot Nacional 13 to 9 and created the better chances, 1.76 xG to 1.20 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Context.
The goals
Nacional led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Nacional: Zé Vitor (37’); Estoril: Yanis Begraoui (60’ pen).
Discipline
Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca, Portugal showed six yellow cards — against 3.8 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Estoril: Gonçalo Costa (63’), Jordan Holsgrove (85’) and João Carvalho (90+7’); Nacional: C. Ramírez (40’), Paulinho Bóia (45+2’) and José Gomes (90+8’).
What it changes
Estoril stay 15th after this result (nine league matches played).
Nacional move down from seventh to ninth (nine league matches played).
Estoril are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Nacional are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions. Nacional have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.
Who stood out
By TACTIX Impact for this match, João Carvalho (Estoril) 5.7, Liziero (Nacional) 5.4 and Yanis Begraoui (Estoril) 5.3 led the match.
Next up
Estoril next travel to Salgueiros on 18 October 2026.
Nacional next host SC Braga on 25 October 2026.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
Next for Estoril: Salgueiros v Estoril, Sunday 18 October — the preview. Next for Nacional: Nacional v SC Braga, Sunday 25 October — the preview.
The numbers
- Result: Estoril 1–1 Nacional · Primeira Liga
- Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota · Estoril
- Referee: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca, Portugal
- Head-to-head (last 2): Estoril 1 · draws 1 · Nacional 0 · 2.5 goals/game
- Recent form: Estoril 2W 1D 2L · Nacional 3W 0D 2L
Estoril 1–1 Nacional (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across every major market, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 October 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Estoril for / against | Line | Nacional for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.38 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 3.14 for · 5.43 against n 7 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 3.57 for · 5.86 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Shots | 12.29 for · 13.43 against n 7 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 10.71 for · 13.71 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 3.86 for · 3.71 against n 7 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4 for · 4.57 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 13.29 for · 12.86 against n 7 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 14.43 for · 11.43 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 3.13 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 3.13 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5 |
Referee: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca, Portugal — 3.83 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 23.83 fouls over 6 matches (1.17 to the home side, 2.67 to the away side).
Estoril
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Brito n 7 | 21.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | — |
| Patrick de Paula n 8 | 51.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | — |
| Alejandro Marqués n 8 | 34.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | — |
| Tiago Parreira Parente n 7 | 48.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | — |
| Ricard Sánchez n 8 | 50.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| André Lacximicant n 8 | 34.8 | 3.2 | 1 |
| João Carvalho n 8 | 87.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| R. Guitane n 8 | 52.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| J. Holsgrove n 8 | 86.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Nodar Lominadze n 8 | 52.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| João Carvalho n 8 | 87.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| R. Guitane n 8 | 52.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Nodar Lominadze n 8 | 52.1 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Ricard Sánchez n 8 | 50.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Tiago Parreira Parente n 7 | 48.7 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Tiago Brito n 7 | 21.9 | 6.5 |
| Ferro n 8 | 62.5 | 3.4 |
| Nodar Lominadze n 8 | 52.1 | 2.8 |
| Ricard Sánchez n 8 | 50.1 | 2.7 |
| Tiago Parreira Parente n 7 | 48.7 | 2.4 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Robles n 8 | 90 | 2.3 |
Nacional
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martim Watts n 4 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 0 | — |
| André Carreira Sousa n 8 | 19.3 | 4.1 | 2.3 | — |
| Filipe Soares n 8 | 27 | 2.5 | 1.3 | — |
| Ulisses n 8 | 61.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | — |
| Zé Vitor n 8 | 87 | 2.2 | 0.6 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| André Carreira Sousa n 8 | 19.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| C. Ramírez n 8 | 86.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Lucas João n 8 | 37.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Pablo Ruan n 6 | 62.5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Witi n 8 | 36.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ramírez n 8 | 86.6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| André Carreira Sousa n 8 | 19.3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| José Gomes n 8 | 87.9 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Léo Santos n 8 | 84.1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Liziero n 8 | 79.6 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Martim Watts n 4 | 10.8 | 4.2 |
| João Aurélio n 8 | 84.4 | 2.8 |
| C. Labidi n 8 | 68.3 | 2.6 |
| A. Núñez n 4 | 71.8 | 2.5 |
| Joel da Silva n 8 | 53.8 | 2.5 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas França n 8 | 90 | 3 |
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Match statistics & details
| Estoril | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| 59% | Possession | 41% |
| 1.76 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.20 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 7 | Shots off target | 4 |
| 2 | Blocked shots | 1 |
| 10 | Shots inside the box | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 2 | Offsides | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 399 | Passes | 271 |
| 74% | Pass accuracy | 68% |
Estoril player stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Robles | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 |
| A. Tsoungui | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
| K. Boma | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| F. Bacher | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| J. Holsgrove | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | Y | 6.7 |
| João Carvalho | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | Y | 6.9 |
| Y. Begraoui | 81 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Pedro Carvalho | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.2 |
| André Lacximicant | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Gonçalo Costa | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Y | 6.2 |
| Jandro Orellana | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Nodar Lominadze sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| Tiago Parreira Parente sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Peixinho sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Alejandro Marqués sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Pizzi sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
Nacional player stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaique | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| João Aurélio | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Léo Santos | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7.9 |
| Zé Vitor | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| José Gomes | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Y | 5.9 |
| Liziero | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7.3 |
| Matheus Dias | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
| C. Ramírez | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Y | 6.2 |
| Paulinho Bóia | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | Y | 6.9 |
| C. Labidi | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Pablo Ruan | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Filipe Soares sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| Witi sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Martim Watts sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Lucas João sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.
Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Estoril v Nacional — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2025-02-15 Nacional 2–2 Estoril
- 2024-09-15 Estoril 1–0 Nacional
The full post-match picture
Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.
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Frequently asked questions
- What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Nacional?
- In their last 2 meetings, Estoril won 1, Nacional won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Estoril and Nacional?
- Recent form — Estoril 2W 1D 2L; Nacional 3W 0D 2L.
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