Estrela v Benfica result

Full-time · Estrela 0–1 Benfica

Primeira Liga · · Estádio José Gomes

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Estrela · Benfica · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Estrela 0–1 Benfica — Benfica won this Primeira Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick
Draw or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 67.3% of 1371 landed (95% range 64.7–69.7%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Benfica won 1–0 at Estádio José Gomes in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 16 August. Benfica have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Benfica: Vangelis Pavlidis (60’ pen).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Vangelis Pavlidis’s goal on 60 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Estrela 1.27, Benfica 2.30, from 15 shots to 14 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

H. Carvalho showed six yellow cards — against 3.7 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Estrela: João Gastão (25’), A. Chernev (58’) and Rodrigo Pinho (90+6’); Benfica: N. Otamendi (53’), Enzo Barrenechea (63’) and R. Rios (84’).

What it changes

Estrela move down from seventh to 12th (two league matches played).

Benfica are eighth after this result (one league match played).

Estrela are winless in their last five matches in all competitions. Benfica have won their last three matches in all competitions. Benfica have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica) 6.4, Jovane Cabral (Estrela) 5.2 and Bernardo Schappo (Estrela) 4.6 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or Benfica, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 67.3% of the time in the last 90 days (922 of 1371).

Next up

Estrela next host Casa Pia on 24 October 2026.

Benfica next travel to Omonia Nicosia on 22 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Estrela: Estrela v Casa Pia, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Benfica: Omonia Nicosia v Benfica, Thursday 22 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Estrela 0–1 Benfica · Primeira Liga
  • Venue: Estádio José Gomes · Amadora
  • Referee: H. Carvalho
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Estrela 0 · draws 0 · Benfica 6 · 4 goals/game
  • Recent form: Estrela 1W 1D 3L · Benfica 4W 0D 1L

Estrela 0–1 Benfica (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.5 / 2
Goals
against 1.25 / 1.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.71 / 4.71
Corners
against 5.86 / 5.43 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
3.71 / 6.29
Shots on target
against 4.29 / 3.86 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.86 / 3.14
Cards
against 3 / 2.14 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
3.67 yellows
Referee · H. Carvalho
1.89 home / 1.78 away
over 9 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameEstrela for / againstLineBenfica for / against
Goals scored
0.5 for · 1.25 against n 8
2.5standard
2 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
3.71 for · 5.86 against n 7
9.5standard
4.71 for · 5.43 against n 7
Shots
10 for · 15 against n 7
19.5standard
13.86 for · 12 against n 7
Shots on target
3.71 for · 4.29 against n 7
8.5standard
6.29 for · 3.86 against n 7
Fouls committed
14.43 for · 15 against n 7
21.5standard
11.86 for · 11.57 against n 7
Cards shown
2.86 for · 3 against n 7
3.5standard
3.14 for · 2.14 against n 7

Referee: H. Carvalho — 3.67 yellow cards a game, 0.22 red cards, 26.78 fouls over 9 matches (1.89 to the home side, 1.78 to the away side).

Estrela
Estrela — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Chico Banza n 850.1
46/6
1.65/2
—
Manuel Keliano n 855.9
36/3
1.85/3
—
A. Ruiz n 860.1
2.85/4
2.67/5
—
Leonel Bucca n 842.9
2.47/2
2.15/3
—
Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia n 870.8
2.15/4
13/1
—
Estrela — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Kikas n 873.4
2.68/5
1.55/3
Rodrigo Pinho n 831.3
2.53/3
1.13/0
Jovane Cabral n 866.5
2.27/4
14/2
A. Ruiz n 860.1
1.37/0
0.74/0
Chico Banza n 850.1
1.13/2
00/0
Estrela — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Kikas n 873.4
0.21/0
0.21/0
Rodrigo Pinho n 831.3
00/0
0.41/0
Rúben Lima n 875
00/0
0.32/0
Leonel Bucca n 842.9
00/0
0.31/0
Jovane Cabral n 866.5
0.21/0
00/0
Estrela — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Ferro n 869.3
3.67/6
Manuel Keliano n 855.9
3.67/6
Jovane Cabral n 866.5
2.97/4
Paulo Moreira n 868.9
2.86/4
Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia n 870.8
2.46/5
Estrela — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Andorinha n 890
3.47/6
Benfica
Benfica — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Belotti n 824.5
4.17/2
4.17/2
—
Tiago Gouveia n 824.9
3.24/3
00/0
—
G. Prestianni n 828.3
2.44/2
1.64/0
—
R. Rios n 892.8
2.37/4
2.88/6
—
Renato Sanches n 839.1
2.35/3
3.25/3
—
Benfica — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Prestianni n 828.3
2.86/1
00/0
Tiago Gouveia n 824.9
2.73/2
1.82/2
A. Di Maria n 890.8
2.17/5
1.56/3
K. Aktürkoğlu n 853.1
1.95/2
1.14/1
V. Pavlidis n 882.8
1.85/4
14/3
Benfica — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Tiago Gouveia n 824.9
0.51/0
0.92/0
A. Di Maria n 890.8
0.75/1
00/0
A. Schjelderup n 849.3
0.52/0
0.21/0
F. Aursnes n 878.3
0.11/0
0.43/0
O. Kökçü n 865
0.21/0
0.32/0
Benfica — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Florentino n 867.9
58/7
Tomás Araújo n 876.5
3.88/7
S. Dahl n 874.5
2.78/7
R. Rios n 892.8
2.47/6
Álvaro Fernández n 882.1
2.36/4
Benfica — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Trubin n 893.8
2.96/4
Samuel Soares n 891.5
1.64/3

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
EstrelaBenfica
43%Possession57%
1.27Expected goals (xG)2.30
15Shots14
2Shots on target3
9Shots off target7
4Blocked shots4
5Shots inside the box9
5Corners4
1Offsides1
14Fouls23
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
2Saves2
275Passes368
76%Pass accuracy79%

Estrela player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Renan Ribeiro9000000006.9
S. Lopes Cabral9000112106.9
Luan Patrick9000000207.2
Bernardo Schappo9000000307.9
A. Chernev90001011Y5.3
Paulo Moreira9000000006.9
A. Marcus8200001206.9
Jovane Cabral8200401307.2
Fábio Ronaldo7400001106.7
João Gastão64001110Y6.2
Alan Godoy6400101106.6
I. Stoica sub2700001006.7
Kikas sub2700100006.3
Rodrigo Pinho sub17002000Y6.3
João Resende sub900000006.7
Jorge Meireles sub900000007.2

Benfica player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Trubin9000000006.9
A. Dedić9000000106.6
António Silva9000000007
N. Otamendi90000010Y7.5
S. Dahl9000201107
F. Aursnes9000103206.9
R. Rios89002001Y6.9
V. Pavlidis8910310107
E. Barrenechea87000003Y7.2
F. Ivanović8700112106.3
A. Schjelderup7000000006.7
G. Prestianni sub2000003006.3
L. Barreiro sub1100000006.2
Florentino sub1100000006.7
Tiago Gouveia sub10000000–
Henrique Araújo sub10011000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Estrela v Benfica — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
EstrelaWLLLD
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
BenficaWWLWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.4 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Estrela 0 · 0 draws · Benfica 6 · 4 goals/game
  • 2025-02-02 Estrela 2–3 Benfica
  • 2024-11-23 Benfica 7–0 Estrela
  • 2024-08-24 Benfica 1–0 Estrela
  • 2024-01-29 Estrela 1–4 Benfica
  • 2023-08-19 Benfica 2–0 Estrela
  • 2021-01-12 Estrela 0–4 Benfica
League standing · 2025/26
Estrela#15 pos30 pts34 pl-18 GD
Benfica#3 pos80 pts34 pl+49 GD
Goals per game
Estrela scored1.12
Benfica scored2.18
Estrela conceded1.65
Benfica conceded0.74

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Estrela v Benfica?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Estrela v Benfica was Draw or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Benfica?
In their last 6 meetings, Estrela won 0, Benfica won 6 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Estrela and Benfica?
Recent form — Estrela 1W 1D 3L; Benfica 4W 0D 1L.

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