Leganes v Mallorca prediction

Segunda División · · Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Leganes vs Mallorca, Segunda División on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:15 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4315 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Leganes host Mallorca in Segunda División on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 15:15 UK); the model’s free pick is Leganes or Mallorca (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Leganes have lost their last four matches. Leganes have failed to score in their last four matches.

Mallorca are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Leganes.

Form and the table

Six of Leganes’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in four of Leganes’s last 15 results (27%). At home, Leganes have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 home matches — 1.43 points per game, scoring 0.86 and conceding 1.00. Leganes have scored six goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 22 clubs (2026/27 so far). Leganes have conceded 15 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 22 clubs.

Mallorca are unbeaten in their last three matches. Four of Mallorca’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in four of Mallorca’s last 15 results (27%). Away from home, Mallorca have two wins, three draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.13 points per game, scoring 0.50 and conceding 1.00. Mallorca have scored 12 goals, the 11th-fewest (shared) of the 22 clubs (2026/27 so far). Mallorca have conceded five goals, the second-fewest of the 22 clubs.

Leganes (17th) and Mallorca (fifth) are seven points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Mallorca the stronger side, 347 rating points above Leganes (Mallorca 1718, Leganes 1370, after at least 96 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 19 April 2025, finished Mallorca 0–0 Leganes.

Team news

Predicted Leganes XI (3-4-2-1): L. Zidane, L. Aguilar, Marvel, I. Miquel, Y. Kechta, M. Atienza, Z. Buurmeester, D. Rodríguez, N. García, Á. Sancris, Á. Morata — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Ismaël Gharbi (4.5 per match over nine appearances, two goals and one assist) and L. Zidane (4.1 per match over nine appearances) have been Leganes’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Leganes (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Ismaël Gharbi averages 1.7 shots per 90 over 956 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. L. Zidane averages 3.5 saves per 90 over 1238 minutes, with two or more saves in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Mallorca XI (4-4-2): A. Tenas, Raíllo, M. Valjent, J. Nwankwo, A. Souhmahoro, Á. Sala, M. Morlanes, A. Liso, Darder, Fuentes, A. Buksa — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Arnau Tenas (3.7 per match over 10 appearances, one assist) and Fuentes (3.7 per match over 10 appearances, six goals and one assist) have been Mallorca’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Mallorca (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Arnau Tenas averages 2.9 saves per 90 over 900 minutes, with two or more saves in seven of the last 10 appearances. Fuentes averages 2.2 shots per 90 over 831 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Segunda División · Estadio Municipal de Butarque
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Leganes 1 · draws 2 · Mallorca 3 · 1 goals/game
  • Recent form: Leganes 1W 0D 4L · Mallorca 2W 2D 1L

TACTIX runs Leganes v Mallorca (Segunda División) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.5 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.75 / 0.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.63 / 5.5
Corners
against 5.25 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.5 / 4.13
Shots on target
against 5.38 / 3.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
3 / 3.25
Cards
against 2.13 / 1.88 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLeganes for / againstLineMallorca for / against
Goals scored
0.5 for · 1.75 against n 8
2.5our book
1.25 for · 0.38 against n 8
Corners won
3.63 for · 5.25 against n 8
9.5standard
5.5 for · 4.25 against n 8
Shots
11.88 for · 16.88 against n 8
19.5standard
12.25 for · 10.5 against n 8
Shots on target
3.5 for · 5.38 against n 8
8.5standard
4.13 for · 3.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
16.75 for · 12.63 against n 8
21.5standard
14.63 for · 13.5 against n 8
Cards shown
3 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
3.25 for · 1.88 against n 8
Leganes
Leganes — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Álvaro Morata n 855.5
4.17/6
1.63/3
—
Y. Kechta n 880.3
3.18/6
14/3
—
Dani Rodríguez n 838.4
2.94/1
3.27/2
—
Álex Millán n 824.8
2.76/0
2.35/0
—
Álvaro Tejero n 856.9
25/4
2.27/3
—
Leganes — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Álex Millán n 824.8
3.66/2
2.34/1
P. Soko n 849.3
2.35/4
1.44/2
Lucas Pasquoto n 832.3
2.12/2
0.31/0
Sule n 621.8
2.12/1
00/0
Naim García n 882.6
28/5
0.54/0
Leganes — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Sule n 621.8
00/0
1.42/0
Álex Millán n 824.8
0.51/0
00/0
Ismaël Gharbi n 879.6
0.32/0
0.11/0
U. del Cura n 862.1
0.41/1
00/0
P. Soko n 849.3
0.21/0
00/0
Leganes — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Rubén Peña n 844.4
35/3
Enric Franquesa n 864.9
2.84/3
Marvel n 880.6
2.77/5
Y. Kechta n 880.3
2.48/4
Álex Sancris n 846.4
2.46/2
Leganes — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
L. Zidane n 890
3.67/5
Mallorca
Mallorca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Guille Fernández n 415.5
5.82/1
1.51/0
—
John Nwankwo n 854.8
2.55/2
0.63/0
—
Manu Morlanes n 881
2.28/6
0.43/0
—
Fuentes n 884
2.16/4
1.58/3
—
Toni Lato n 862.1
26/4
1.34/2
—
Mallorca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Álex Sala n 882.9
2.78/7
1.46/2
Fuentes n 884
2.48/7
1.36/3
Antoniu Roca n 837
1.84/1
0.62/0
Zito Luvumbo n 860.4
1.57/1
0.74/0
Pablo Torre n 863.1
1.14/2
0.53/0
Mallorca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Fuentes n 884
0.85/1
0.11/0
Josep Cerdà n 848.1
00/0
0.52/0
A. Buksa n 823.4
0.51/0
00/0
Álex Sala n 882.9
0.32/0
0.11/0
Pablo Torre n 863.1
0.21/0
00/0
Mallorca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
John Nwankwo n 854.8
3.36/4
Antoniu Roca n 837
3.37/4
Manu Morlanes n 881
3.27/6
Toni Lato n 862.1
2.98/6
Guille Fernández n 415.5
2.91/1
Mallorca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Arnau Tenas n 890
2.96/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Leganes v Mallorca — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LeganesWLLLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.6 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
MallorcaWLDWD
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Leganes 1 · 2 draws · Mallorca 3 · 1 goals/game
  • 2025-04-19 Mallorca 0–0 Leganes
  • 2024-08-31 Leganes 0–1 Mallorca
  • 2021-04-01 Mallorca 1–0 Leganes
  • 2020-12-12 Leganes 0–1 Mallorca
  • 2020-06-19 Mallorca 1–1 Leganes
  • 2019-10-26 Leganes 1–0 Mallorca
League standing · 2026/27
Leganes#17 pos11 pts10 pl-9 GD
Mallorca#5 pos18 pts10 pl+7 GD
Goals per game
Leganes scored0.6
Mallorca scored1.2
Leganes conceded1.5
Mallorca conceded0.5

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Leganes vs Mallorca?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Leganes v Mallorca is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Mallorca?
In their last 6 meetings, Leganes won 1, Mallorca won 3 and there were 2 draws, averaging 1 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Leganes and Mallorca?
Recent form — Leganes 1W 0D 4L; Mallorca 2W 2D 1L.

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