Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro prediction

Serie A – Brazil · · Arena MRV

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Atletico-MG · Cruzeiro · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro, Serie A – Brazil on Thu, 29 Oct 2026 22:30 GMT.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.80 at Bet365
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67% of 581 landed (95% range 63–70.7%); it had given them 76.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 478 of 727 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.1%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Atletico-MG host Cruzeiro in Serie A – Brazil on Thursday 29 October (kick-off 22:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Both teams scored in 13 of Cruzeiro’s last 15 results in all competitions (87%).

Cruzeiro have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of Atletico-MG’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Atletico-MG’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Atletico-MG have eight wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 2.78 points per game, scoring 2.11 and conceding 0.78. Atletico-MG have scored 44 goals, the ninth-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Atletico-MG have conceded 38 goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

11 of Cruzeiro’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Away from home, Cruzeiro have three wins, no draws and five defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.13 points per game, scoring 1.88 and conceding 2.13. Cruzeiro have scored 51 goals, the fourth-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Cruzeiro have conceded 46 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Atletico-MG (seventh) and Cruzeiro (third) are four points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Atletico-MG the stronger side, 4 rating points above Cruzeiro (Atletico-MG 1725, Cruzeiro 1721, after at least 260 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Atletico-MG are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Cruzeiro. The most recent meeting, on 2 September 2026, finished Atletico-MG 2–1 Cruzeiro.

Team news

Atletico-MG have seven names on the availability list: Cuello (out, Ribs Injury), Everson (out, Foot Injury), Fred (out, Muscle Injury), M. Cassierra (out, Muscle Injury), Ruan Tressoldi (out, Muscle Injury), T. Borbas (out, Muscle Injury) and one more — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-29. Predicted Atletico-MG XI (4-2-3-1): G. Delfim, R. Lodi, Natanael, Lyanco, Vitão, Maycon, Bernard, K. Castaño, V. Hugo, A. Franco, Reinier — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Cuello (4.2 per match over 39 appearances, eight goals and eight assists) and Fred (4.1 per match over 10 appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Atletico-MG’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Atletico-MG (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Cuello averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 2874 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Fred averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 1005 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Cruzeiro have four names on the availability list: Gabriel Pec (out, Broken Leg), L. Sinisterra (out, Muscle Injury), Felipe Morais (doubtful, Muscle Injury) and K. Arroyo (doubtful, Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-29. Predicted Cruzeiro XI (4-2-3-1): O. Costa, J. Jesus, W. Furtado, J. Marcelo, L. Villalba, M. Pereira, Gerson, L. Romero, Z. Lucas, M. Henrique, K. Jorge — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Matheus Pereira (4.6 per match over 43 appearances, 13 goals and nine assists) and Kaiki (4.0 per match over 24 appearances, three assists) have been Cruzeiro’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Cruzeiro (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Matheus Pereira averages 3.2 key passes per 90 over 3649 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Kaiki averages 2.7 tackles per 90 over 2576 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A – Brazil · Arena MRV
  • Referee: Raphael Claus
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Atletico-MG 2 · draws 2 · Cruzeiro 2 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Atletico-MG 3W 0D 2L · Cruzeiro 4W 0D 1L

Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro (Serie A – Brazil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 2.13
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
5.88 / 5.38
Corners
against 7.13 / 7.5 · 5 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
6.5 / 6.38
Shots on target
against 5.13 / 6.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.88 / 2.5
Cards
against 1.63 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 26 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 26 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAtletico-MG for / againstLineCruzeiro for / against
Goals scored
1.5 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.75our book
2.13 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
5.88 for · 7.13 against n 8
9.5standard
5.38 for · 7.5 against n 8
Shots
14.63 for · 18.75 against n 8
19.5standard
15.38 for · 20.25 against n 8
Shots on target
6.5 for · 5.13 against n 8
8.5standard
6.38 for · 6.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.25 for · 10.63 against n 8
21.5standard
13.63 for · 15.75 against n 8
Cards shown
1.88 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.5standard
2.5 for · 1.75 against n 8

Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG Goalkeeper

Atletico-MG — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Everson35913200 min1143.2 /90361 /9000 /90
Gabriel Delfim12921099 min433.5 /9070.6 /9000 /90
Atletico-MG — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Everson n 891.5
3.26/5
Gabriel Delfim n 890.8
3.86/5

Atletico-MG Defensive

Atletico-MG — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Renan Lodi40873492 min491.3 /90431.1 /90130.3 /901844.7 /90541.4 /9050.1 /90
Natanael32812598 min481.7 /90301 /90100.3 /901374.7 /90281 /9030.1 /90
Ruan Tressoldi30852544 min341.2 /90331.2 /90301.1 /901254.4 /90301.1 /9090.3 /90
Vitor Hugo25781945 min221 /90211 /90170.8 /90823.8 /90180.8 /9020.1 /90
Lyanco17861469 min161 /90181.1 /90140.9 /90593.6 /90201.2 /9040.2 /90
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Atletico-MG — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Renan Lodi n 875.8
14/2
16/1
—
Bernard n 877.3
15/2
17/0
—
Cuello n 879.8
1.14/3
1.47/3
—
Victor Hugo n 849.3
0.73/0
0.72/1
—
Everson n 891.5
0.11/0
0.42/1
—
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Atletico-MG — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Renan Lodi n 875.8
1.34/2
Bernard n 877.3
1.25/3
Cuello n 879.8
0.74/1
Victor Hugo n 849.3
1.65/2
A. Franco n 880.1
1.85/4
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Atletico-MG Attacking

Atletico-MG — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
M. Cassierra30611836 min50.2 /9020.1 /90281.4 /90150.7 /90221.1 /9060.3 /90
A. Minda30431290 min40.3 /9030.2 /90302.1 /90171.2 /90221.5 /90332.3 /90
Reinier28581630 min50.3 /9030.2 /90271.5 /90170.9 /90281.5 /90170.9 /90
Dudu2138801 min20.2 /9000 /90161.8 /90101.1 /90131.5 /90151.7 /90
Hulk1470979 min10.1 /9030.3 /90181.7 /9070.6 /90181.7 /9070.6 /90
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Atletico-MG — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Renan Lodi n 875.8
1.35/3
0.64/0
Bernard n 877.3
1.56/2
0.95/1
Cuello n 879.8
2.14/4
0.73/2
Victor Hugo n 849.3
2.36/2
0.94/0
Everson n 891.5
00/0
00/0
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Atletico-MG — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Renan Lodi n 875.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
Bernard n 877.3
0.64/0
00/0
Cuello n 879.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
Victor Hugo n 849.3
00/0
0.52/0
Everson n 891.5
00/0
00/0
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Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro Goalkeeper

Cruzeiro — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Otávio Costa31902805 min1093.5 /90270.9 /9000 /90
Matheus Cunha1186948 min171.6 /90131.2 /9000 /90
Cássio587433 min142.9 /90102.1 /9000 /90
Cruzeiro — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cruzeiro before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Otávio Costa n 890
5.18/7
Matheus Cunha n 890
1.53/1

Cruzeiro Defensive

Cruzeiro — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Fabrício Bruno39893467 min360.9 /90310.8 /90250.6 /901453.8 /90220.6 /90100.3 /90
Jonathan Jesus33842780 min511.7 /90521.7 /90190.6 /901304.2 /90240.8 /9050.2 /90
Fagner26771991 min462.1 /90190.9 /9080.4 /90964.3 /90321.4 /9060.3 /90
Kaiki24892134 min632.7 /90220.9 /9060.3 /901586.7 /90492.1 /9030.1 /90
Lucas Villalba21741544 min191.1 /90271.6 /9070.4 /90553.2 /90231.3 /9010.1 /90
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Cruzeiro — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cruzeiro before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Matheus Pereira n 886.9
1.67/4
2.68/5
—
Gerson n 882
15/2
2.26/6
—
Fabrício Bruno n 884.4
1.27/1
0.32/0
—
Keny Arroyo n 868.3
1.55/4
1.34/2
—
Kaio Jorge n 886
0.84/2
1.46/3
—
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Cruzeiro — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cruzeiro before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Matheus Pereira n 886.9
1.27/2
Gerson n 882
1.46/1
Fabrício Bruno n 884.4
0.85/1
Keny Arroyo n 868.3
0.83/2
Kaio Jorge n 886
0.32/0
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Cruzeiro Attacking

Cruzeiro — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Kaio Jorge38803023 min140.4 /9040.1 /90702.1 /90331 /90371.1 /90210.6 /90
Bruno Rodrigues1644706 min10.1 /9030.4 /90101.3 /9050.6 /9091.1 /9050.6 /90
Wanderson1632505 min20.4 /9000 /90122.1 /9050.9 /9010.2 /9020.4 /90
Néiser Villarreal1553788 min40.5 /9010.1 /90222.5 /9091 /90121.4 /9010.1 /90
Wesley Gassova1247567 min10.2 /9000 /90101.6 /9030.5 /9061 /90152.4 /90
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Cruzeiro — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cruzeiro before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Matheus Pereira n 886.9
37/7
1.25/3
Gerson n 882
1.15/1
0.11/0
Fabrício Bruno n 884.4
0.42/1
0.31/1
Keny Arroyo n 868.3
37/5
1.36/2
Kaio Jorge n 886
2.77/6
1.66/3
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Cruzeiro — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cruzeiro before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Matheus Pereira n 886.9
0.43/0
0.54/0
Gerson n 882
00/0
0.32/0
Fabrício Bruno n 884.4
0.11/0
00/0
Keny Arroyo n 868.3
0.21/0
0.31/1
Kaio Jorge n 886
0.84/1
0.32/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Atletico-MGWWWLL
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
CruzeiroWWLWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Atletico-MG 2 · 2 draws · Cruzeiro 2 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2026-09-02 Atletico-MG 2–1 Cruzeiro
  • 2026-08-26 Cruzeiro 1–1 Atletico-MG
  • 2026-05-03 Cruzeiro 1–3 Atletico-MG
  • 2025-10-16 Atletico-MG 1–1 Cruzeiro
  • 2025-09-11 Cruzeiro 2–0 Atletico-MG
  • 2025-08-27 Atletico-MG 0–2 Cruzeiro
League standing · 2026
Atletico-MG#7 pos50 pts32 pl+6 GD
Cruzeiro#3 pos54 pts32 pl+5 GD
Goals per game
Atletico-MG scored1.38
Cruzeiro scored1.59
Atletico-MG conceded1.19
Cruzeiro conceded1.44

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.80 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro?
In their last 6 meetings, Atletico-MG won 2, Cruzeiro won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro?
Recent form — Atletico-MG 3W 0D 2L; Cruzeiro 4W 0D 1L.

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