Atletico-MG v Santos result

Full-time · Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos

Serie A – Brazil · · Arena MRV

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Atletico-MG · Santos · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos — Atletico-MG won this Serie A – Brazil match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.85 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 643 landed (95% range 61.9–69.2%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 402 of 612 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.6%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Atletico-MG beat Santos 2–1 at Arena MRV in Serie A – Brazil on Sunday 11 October. Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Santos: Gabriel Barbosa (88’, assisted by Coutinho); Atletico-MG: Vitor Hugo (90’, assisted by Maycon) and T. Borbas (90’, assisted by A. Minda).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Vitor Hugo’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Atletico-MG 1.44, Santos 1.12, from 21 shots to 10 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Atletico-MG: A. Franco (45+2’), T. Borbas (66’) and Igor Gomes (70’); Santos: Lucas Veríssimo (45+4’), Luan Peres (66’), João Schmidt (85’), Gabriel Barbosa (89’) and Willian Arão (89’).

What it changes

Atletico-MG move up from seventh to sixth (30 league matches played).

Santos stay eighth after this result (30 league matches played).

Atletico-MG have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions. Santos have scored in eight consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Vitor Hugo (Atletico-MG) 8.4, T. Borbas (Atletico-MG) 6.4 and Gustavo Henrique Pereira (Santos) 5.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Atletico-MG next travel to Atletico Torque on 21 October 2026.

Santos next host Bahia on 25 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Atletico-MG: Atletico Torque v Atletico-MG, Wednesday 21 October — the preview. Next for Santos: Santos v Bahia, Sunday 25 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos · Serie A – Brazil
  • Venue: Arena MRV · Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
  • Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Atletico-MG 2 · draws 1 · Santos 3 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Atletico-MG 3W 2D 0L · Santos 3W 1D 1L

Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos (Serie A – Brazil): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.63 / 1.88
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.88 / 5.25
Corners
against 6.75 / 5.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.75 / 4.88
Shots on target
against 5.13 / 4.63 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.13 / 3.25
Cards
against 1.63 / 2.38 · 0 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAtletico-MG for / againstLineSantos for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.5our book
1.88 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
4.88 for · 6.75 against n 8
9.5standard
5.25 for · 5.13 against n 8
Shots
14.63 for · 17.13 against n 8
19.5standard
15.25 for · 12.38 against n 8
Shots on target
5.75 for · 5.13 against n 8
8.5standard
4.88 for · 4.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.75 for · 11.88 against n 8
21.5standard
13.38 for · 13.38 against n 8
Cards shown
1.13 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.5standard
3.25 for · 2.38 against n 8

Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano.

Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Igor Gomes n 821.3
2.65/0
1.12/0
—
Mamady Cisse n 850.5
2.26/3
2.53/3
—
Fred n 880.3
1.87/3
2.57/6
—
A. Franco n 874
1.76/3
0.63/1
Gustavo Henrique Pereira
Cuello n 889
1.56/5
1.47/4
—
Atletico-MG — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Cuello n 889
2.76/5
0.94/3
Gustavo Scarpa n 829.3
2.75/2
1.54/0
Lucas Pasquoto n 832.3
2.12/2
0.31/0
Fred n 880.3
26/4
14/2
Victor Hugo n 857.1
25/3
0.63/0
Atletico-MG — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Igor Gomes n 821.3
00/0
1.12/0
Reinier n 855.8
0.83/1
0.21/0
Cuello n 889
0.32/0
0.32/0
Fred n 880.3
0.11/0
0.42/1
Bernard n 869.3
0.53/0
00/0
Atletico-MG — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Alexsander n 845.1
2.55/4
Reinier n 855.8
2.26/3
Mamady Cisse n 850.5
2.23/3
Natanael n 881.3
2.15/4
Léo Duarte n 882.8
27/5
Atletico-MG — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Gabriel Delfim n 892.4
3.77/5
Santos
Santos — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Rony n 855.9
2.47/4
2.26/2
—
Gustavo Henrique Pereira n 860.6
26/4
2.65/4
A. Franco
Luan Peres n 876.8
1.86/3
0.32/0
—
Neymar n 874.1
1.86/3
3.87/7
—
João Schmidt n 861
1.85/3
00/0
—
Santos — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Neymar n 874.1
3.28/6
1.86/5
Rony n 855.9
3.27/5
0.63/0
Everton n 829.1
3.13/2
1.22/1
Gabriel Barbosa n 884.9
38/8
1.57/3
Coutinho n 880.4
2.26/5
1.14/1
Santos — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Gabriel Barbosa n 884.9
0.84/2
0.42/1
Neymar n 874.1
0.31/1
0.63/1
Everton n 829.1
00/0
0.82/0
Benjamín Rollheiser n 854.6
0.21/0
0.21/0
Arthur n 850.3
00/0
0.42/0
Santos — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Gustavo Henrique Pereira n 860.6
4.16/5
Lima n 820.6
3.84/2
Gonzalo Escobar n 888.4
2.78/6
Luan Peres n 876.8
2.68/6
Igor Vinícius n 859.4
2.56/3
Santos — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Diogenes n 783.4
3.56/6
Gabriel Brazão n 891
2.78/3

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Atletico-MGSantos
58%Possession42%
1.44Expected goals (xG)1.12
21Shots10
5Shots on target3
12Shots off target5
4Blocked shots2
18Shots inside the box5
12Corners3
1Offsides3
10Fouls12
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0
2Saves4
552Passes549

Atletico-MG player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Gabriel Delfim9000000006.5
Léo Duarte9000200107.3
Vitor Hugo9010410308.3
K. Pascini9000403107.1
Igor Gomes90000070Y6.2
T. Borbas90103140Y8.2
Alexsander8200100406.6
Natanael7000111007.4
A. Franco69000003Y6.3
K. Castaño6900000007
A. Minda4501101006.5
Victor Hugo4500310006.9
Maycon2101001006.7
Mamady Cisse2100210106.7
A. Preciado2000001006.8
Dudu800000006.4

Santos player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Diogenes9000000006.9
Rodinei9000100306.9
Lucas Veríssimo90000002Y6.5
Gonzalo Escobar9000001106.6
Christian Oliva9000000006.5
Gabriel Barbosa90105300Y7.5
Everton8500201005.8
Luan Peres82000003Y6.8
Gustavo Henrique Pereira7200002406.6
Gabriel Bontempo7200100206.3
Benjamín Rollheiser4500001006.1
Rony4500000206.3
Coutinho1801102007
João Schmidt18000015Y6.7
Willian Arão8000000Y6.1
Álvaro Barreal500000006.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Atletico-MG v Santos — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Atletico-MGWWDWD
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 2.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
SantosWLWWD
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Atletico-MG 2 · 1 draw · Santos 3 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2026-09-16 Atletico-MG 4–2 Santos
  • 2026-09-09 Santos 2–0 Atletico-MG
  • 2026-04-11 Santos 1–0 Atletico-MG
  • 2025-09-14 Atletico-MG 1–1 Santos
  • 2025-04-17 Santos 2–0 Atletico-MG
  • 2023-08-27 Atletico-MG 2–0 Santos
League standing · 2026
Atletico-MG#6 pos50 pts31 pl+7 GD
Santos#8 pos45 pts31 pl+2 GD
Goals per game
Atletico-MG scored1.35
Santos scored1.55
Atletico-MG conceded1.13
Santos conceded1.48

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Atletico-MG v Santos?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Atletico-MG v Santos was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.85 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Santos?
In their last 6 meetings, Atletico-MG won 2, Santos won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Atletico-MG and Santos?
Recent form — Atletico-MG 3W 2D 0L; Santos 3W 1D 1L.

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