Chapecoense-sc v Fluminense prediction

Serie A – Brazil · · Arena Condá

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Chapecoense-sc · Fluminense · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Away win the free pick for Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense, Serie A – Brazil on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 23:30 BST.

Free pick
Away win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Away win in the last 90 days, 84.6% of 91 landed (95% range 75.8–90.6%); it had given them 76.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Chapecoense-sc host Fluminense in Serie A – Brazil on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 23:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Fluminense to win.

The key numbers

Chapecoense-sc are winless in their last five matches. Chapecoense-sc have scored 30 goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2026 so far).

Fluminense are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Chapecoense-sc, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

Nine of Chapecoense-sc’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Chapecoense-sc’s last 15 results (53%). At home, Chapecoense-sc have one win, two draws and three defeats in their last 6 home matches — 0.83 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.17. Chapecoense-sc have conceded 61 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far).

Nine of Fluminense’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 10 of Fluminense’s last 15 results (67%). Away from home, Fluminense have one win, three draws and three defeats in their last 7 away matches — 0.86 points per game, scoring 1.43 and conceding 1.71. Fluminense have scored 48 goals, the fourth-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Fluminense have conceded 37 goals, the eighth-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Chapecoense-sc (20th) and Fluminense (fourth) are 33 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Fluminense the stronger side, 398 rating points above Chapecoense-sc (Fluminense 1713, Chapecoense-sc 1315, after at least 181 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 26 April 2026, finished Fluminense 2–1 Chapecoense-sc.

Team news

Predicted Chapecoense-sc XI (4-2-3-1): Anderson, E. Doma, Kauan, B. Pacheco, Heitor, Camilo, Y. Felipe, Marcinho, M. Garcez, G. Augusto, Túlio — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Walter Clar (3.4 per match over 11 appearances, three goals and one assist) and Bruno Pacheco (3.2 per match over 23 appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Chapecoense-sc’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Chapecoense-sc (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Walter Clar averages 1.4 tackles per 90 over 1231 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances. Bruno Pacheco averages 1.8 tackles per 90 over 2257 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Fluminense XI (4-2-3-1): Fabio, J. Millan, Rene, Ignacio, Guga, Martinelli, A. Canobbio, Nonato, P. Ganso, Y. Soteldo, Hulk — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Hulk (4.5 per match over 18 appearances, seven goals and five assists) and Rene (3.8 per match over 27 appearances, two assists) have been Fluminense’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Fluminense (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Hulk averages 2.6 shots per 90 over 2161 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Rene averages 2.7 tackles per 90 over 2239 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A – Brazil · Arena Condá
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Chapecoense-sc 0 · draws 2 · Fluminense 4 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Chapecoense-sc 0W 1D 4L · Fluminense 2W 0D 3L

TACTIX runs Chapecoense-sc v Fluminense (Serie A – Brazil) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 17 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.25 / 1.63
Goals
against 2.25 / 1.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.63 / 2.75
Corners
against 5 / 5.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.38 / 4.25
Shots on target
against 6.13 / 4.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.63 / 2.5
Cards
against 1.75 / 2.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameChapecoense-sc for / againstLineFluminense for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 2.25 against n 8
2.5standard
1.63 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
4.63 for · 5 against n 8
9.5standard
2.75 for · 5.88 against n 8
Shots
14.5 for · 16.25 against n 8
19.5standard
10.25 for · 13.75 against n 8
Shots on target
4.38 for · 6.13 against n 8
8.5standard
4.25 for · 4.5 against n 8
Fouls committed
16 for · 9.63 against n 8
21.5standard
12.13 for · 14.63 against n 8
Cards shown
2.63 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
2.5 for · 2.38 against n 8
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Fernando n 837.4
66/4
2.44/4
—
Yannick Bolasie n 829
3.97/3
0.41/0
—
Túlio n 869
2.47/5
0.72/1
—
Bruno Matias n 828.3
2.44/1
00/0
—
F. Rossi n 826.3
2.14/1
3.46/2
—
Chapecoense-sc — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Carvalho n 619.8
6.85/3
3.83/1
F. Rossi n 826.3
3.93/2
2.62/2
Maurício Garcez n 884.8
3.18/5
0.95/1
Yannick Bolasie n 829
2.71/1
1.61/1
Túlio n 869
2.16/3
14/1
Chapecoense-sc — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Yannick Bolasie n 829
00/0
0.82/0
Marcinho n 881.4
0.31/1
0.32/0
Dudu n 854
00/0
0.63/0
K. Ramírez n 838.5
0.31/0
0.31/0
Maurício Garcez n 884.8
0.43/0
00/0
Chapecoense-sc — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
David Antunes n 817.3
3.32/2
Dudu n 854
2.55/4
Bruno Matias n 828.3
2.45/1
Bruno Pacheco n 886.3
2.37/5
Yago Felipe n 874.5
25/2
Chapecoense-sc — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Anderson n 891.8
46/6
Fluminense
Fluminense — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Riquelme Felipe n 817.9
3.15/0
3.15/0
—
L. Acosta n 836.6
2.25/2
0.62/0
—
Otavio n 843.1
2.15/2
0.52/0
—
A. Canobbio n 872.8
27/4
3.28/4
—
Julio Fidelis n 846
25/2
2.94/4
—
Fluminense — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Hulk n 876.9
3.28/7
1.67/3
Jefferson Savarino n 839.6
2.83/2
1.72/1
L. Acosta n 836.6
2.23/2
0.92/1
K. Serna n 850.4
1.64/1
1.34/1
Guilherme Arana n 853.5
1.54/3
0.42/0
Fluminense — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Hulk n 876.9
0.63/1
0.64/0
Jefferson Savarino n 839.6
0.91/1
00/0
L. Acosta n 836.6
0.62/0
0.31/0
K. Serna n 850.4
0.21/0
0.42/0
Riquelme Felipe n 817.9
00/0
0.61/0
Fluminense — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Riquelme Felipe n 817.9
3.14/1
Julio Fidelis n 846
2.96/2
Rene n 890.8
2.67/5
Guga n 888
2.37/3
Nonato n 883.4
2.37/5
Fluminense — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Fabio n 891.6
3.46/6

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Chapecoense-sc v Fluminense — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Chapecoense-scLDLLL
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.6 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
FluminenseLWWLL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Chapecoense-sc 0 · 2 draws · Fluminense 4 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2026-04-26 Fluminense 2–1 Chapecoense-sc
  • 2021-12-10 Fluminense 3–0 Chapecoense-sc
  • 2021-09-08 Chapecoense-sc 1–2 Fluminense
  • 2019-10-26 Fluminense 1–1 Chapecoense-SC
  • 2019-06-13 Chapecoense-SC 1–1 Fluminense
  • 2018-09-24 Chapecoense-sc 1–2 Fluminense
League standing · 2026
Chapecoense-sc#20 pos18 pts29 pl-31 GD
Fluminense#4 pos51 pts30 pl+11 GD
Goals per game
Chapecoense-sc scored1.03
Fluminense scored1.6
Chapecoense-sc conceded2.1
Fluminense conceded1.23

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Chapecoense-sc v Fluminense is Away win.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense?
In their last 6 meetings, Chapecoense-sc won 0, Fluminense won 4 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense?
Recent form — Chapecoense-sc 0W 1D 4L; Fluminense 2W 0D 3L.

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