Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense prediction
Team pages: Vitoria · Atletico Paranaense · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense, Serie A – Brazil on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 20:30 BST.
The match
Vitoria host Atletico Paranaense in Serie A – Brazil on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 20:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Vitoria or Atletico Paranaense (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.
The key numbers
Vitoria have scored in five consecutive matches.
Form and the table
Seven of Vitoria’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in four of Vitoria’s last 15 results (27%). At home, Vitoria have four wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 8 home matches — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.38 and conceding 1.38. Vitoria have scored 33 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Vitoria have conceded 44 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.
Nine of Atletico Paranaense’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Atletico Paranaense’s last 15 results (60%). Away from home, Atletico Paranaense have four wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.75 points per game, scoring 1.88 and conceding 1.75. Atletico Paranaense have scored 49 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Atletico Paranaense have conceded 37 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.
Vitoria (13th) and Atletico Paranaense (third) are 17 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Atletico Paranaense the stronger side, 182 rating points above Vitoria (Atletico Paranaense 1667, Vitoria 1485, after at least 182 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 6 August 2026, finished Vitoria 4–0 Atletico Paranaense.
Team news
Predicted Vitoria XI (4-2-3-1): L. Arcanjo, L. Candido, Jamerson, Mateusinho, E. Brítez, Erick, Matheuzinho, D. Tarzia, E. Martinez, C. Goncalves, Rene — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Ze Vitor (3.9 per match over 26 appearances, one goal) and Erick (3.5 per match over 34 appearances, eight goals and six assists) have been Vitoria’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Vitoria (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Ze Vitor averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 1754 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances. Erick averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 2381 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Atletico Paranaense XI (3-4-2-1): Mycael, A. Dias, F. Aguirre, Dantas, S. Mendoza, Jadson, L. Gustavo, Gilberto, G. Benavidez, L. Esquivel, K. Viveros — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, K. Viveros (4.5 per match over 33 appearances, 21 goals and four assists) and L. Esquivel (4.0 per match over 23 appearances, two goals and five assists) have been Atletico Paranaense’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Atletico Paranaense (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), K. Viveros averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 3063 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. L. Esquivel averages 2.5 tackles per 90 over 1866 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Serie A – Brazil · Barradao
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Vitoria 2 · draws 0 · Atletico Paranaense 4 · 2.83 goals/game
- Recent form: Vitoria 2W 1D 2L · Atletico Paranaense 2W 2D 1L
Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense (Serie A – Brazil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Vitoria for / against | Line | Atletico Paranaense for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.25 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5our book | 2.25 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4.25 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.75 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 14.88 for · 15.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 16.5 for · 17.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 7 for · 6.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 12.63 for · 15.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 13 for · 12.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.13 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.88 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
Vitoria
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marinho n 8 | 35 | 2.9 | 5.5 | — |
| Ze Vitor n 8 | 71.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | — |
| Renato Kayzer n 8 | 29.1 | 2.3 | 1.5 | — |
| Walace n 8 | 36.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | — |
| D. Tarzia n 8 | 68.5 | 2.1 | 3.3 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rene n 8 | 64 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Osvaldo n 8 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Marinho n 8 | 35 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| Ze Vitor n 8 | 71.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| Lucas Silva n 8 | 26.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matheuzinho n 8 | 74.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Erick n 8 | 67.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Rene n 8 | 64 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Mateusinho n 8 | 65.5 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Lucas Arcanjo n 8 | 90.6 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Ze Vitor n 8 | 71.4 | 4.7 |
| Marinho n 8 | 35 | 4.5 |
| T. Pochettino n 8 | 31.3 | 4 |
| Edenilson n 8 | 26.9 | 2.9 |
| Mateusinho n 8 | 65.5 | 2.7 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas Arcanjo n 8 | 90.6 | 4 |
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan Peixoto n 8 | 32.9 | 5.5 | 0.7 | — |
| Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto n 7 | 19.1 | 4 | 1.3 | — |
| K. Viveros n 8 | 72.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | — |
| Leo n 8 | 76.8 | 2.1 | 0.3 | — |
| Felipinho n 8 | 57.5 | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto n 7 | 19.1 | 4.7 | 1.3 |
| B. Zapelli n 8 | 17.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 |
| Leozinho n 8 | 56 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| Renan Peixoto n 8 | 32.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| K. Viveros n 8 | 72.1 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| K. A. Calderon Vargas n 8 | 47.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| K. Viveros n 8 | 72.1 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto n 7 | 19.1 | 0.7 | 0 |
| João Cruz n 8 | 64.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Dudu Kogitzki n 8 | 24.6 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| B. Zapelli n 8 | 17.9 | 3.8 |
| L. Esquivel n 8 | 76.5 | 2.5 |
| Claudinho n 8 | 56.8 | 2.2 |
| Dantas n 8 | 78.1 | 2 |
| J. Portilla n 8 | 45 | 2 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-08-06 Vitoria 4–0 Atletico Paranaense
- 2026-08-04 Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Vitoria
- 2026-04-26 Atletico Paranaense 3–1 Vitoria
- 2024-11-02 Atletico Paranaense 1–2 Vitoria
- 2024-06-30 Vitoria 0–1 Atletico Paranaense
- 2018-11-17 Vitoria 1–2 Atletico Paranaense
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense is Home or Away.
- What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense?
- In their last 6 meetings, Vitoria won 2, Atletico Paranaense won 4 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense?
- Recent form — Vitoria 2W 1D 2L; Atletico Paranaense 2W 2D 1L.
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