AC Milan v Atalanta prediction

The match

AC Milan host Atalanta in Serie A on Sunday 18 October (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is AC Milan or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Atalanta are unbeaten in the last six meetings with AC Milan, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

AC Milan are unbeaten in their last three matches. Eight of AC Milan’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of AC Milan’s last 15 results (47%). At home, AC Milan have two wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 7 home matches — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.14 and conceding 1.43. AC Milan have scored 11 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). AC Milan have conceded five goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Seven of Atalanta’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in nine of Atalanta’s last 15 results (60%). Away from home, Atalanta have two wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 6 away matches — 1.17 points per game, scoring 1.33 and conceding 1.67. Atalanta have scored eight goals, the ninth-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Atalanta have conceded eight goals, the eighth-fewest of the 20 clubs.

AC Milan (sixth) and Atalanta (10th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have AC Milan the stronger side, 119 rating points above Atalanta (AC Milan 1730, Atalanta 1612, after at least 348 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta.

Team news

AC Milan have two names on the availability list: A. Saelemaekers (out, Ankle Injury) and M. Gabbia (out, Thigh Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-17. Predicted AC Milan XI (3-4-2-1): M. Maignan, S. Pavlović, M. Gila, K. De Winter, S. Chukwueze, Y. Musah, L. Modrić, A. Rabiot, P. Estupiñán, D. Moreira, G. Ramos — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Diego Moreira (4.6 per match over five appearances, three goals) and A. Rabiot (4.1 per match over eight appearances, three goals and three assists) have been AC Milan’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for AC Milan (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Diego Moreira averages 1.5 shots per 90 over 529 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances. A. Rabiot averages 1.2 key passes per 90 over 1307 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last 10 appearances.

Atalanta have eight names on the availability list: E. Elmas (out, Red Card), G. Scalvini (out, Thigh Injury), I. Hien (out, Muscle Injury), O. Kossounou (out, Thigh Injury), F. Kessie (doubtful, Calf Injury), G. Raspadori (doubtful, Thigh Injury) and two more — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-17. Predicted Atalanta XI (4-3-3): M. Carnesecchi, D. Zappacosta, S. Kolašinac, L. Bernasconi, T. Kristensen, Éderson, G. Gaetano, L. Samardžić, C. De Ketelaere, N. Krstović, G. Scamacca — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Jonathan Rowe (3.5 per match over three appearances) and Lazar Samardžić (3.2 per match over nine appearances, one goal) have been Atalanta’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atalanta (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Jonathan Rowe averages 2.6 shots per 90 over 280 minutes. Lazar Samardžić averages 3.1 key passes per 90 over 589 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.