Atletico-MG v Bahia result
Team pages: Atletico-MG · Bahia · Head-to-head
The model’s pre-match pick
Atletico-MG 1–1 Bahia — this Serie A – Brazil match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.
The result
Atletico-MG and Bahia drew 1–1 at MRV Arena in Serie A – Brazil on Tuesday 21 July. Bahia have scored in 10 consecutive matches in all competitions.
The goals
Atletico-MG led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Atletico-MG: Ruan Tressoldi (45’, assisted by Bernard); Bahia: Ademir (57’, assisted by Rodrigo Nestor).
How it turned
Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Ademir’s goal on 57 minutes.
Discipline
The bookings — Bahia: Zé Guilherme (77’) and Erick (87’).
What it changes
Atletico-MG move down from ninth to 10th (19 league matches played).
Bahia stay sixth after this result (19 league matches played).
Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Bahia are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.
What the model said
The model’s free pick, Atletico-MG or Bahia (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.3% of the time in the last 90 days (3366 of 4357).
Next up
Atletico-MG next travel to Atletico Torque on 21 October 2026.
Bahia next host Flamengo on 18 October 2026.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
Next for Atletico-MG: Atletico Torque v Atletico-MG, Wednesday 21 October — the preview. Next for Bahia: Bahia v Flamengo, Sunday 18 October — the preview.
The numbers
- Result: Atletico-MG 1–1 Bahia · Serie A – Brazil
- Venue: MRV Arena · Belo Horizonte
- Referee: B. Machado
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Atletico-MG 2 · draws 1 · Bahia 3 · 2.83 goals/game
- Recent form: Atletico-MG 4W 0D 1L · Bahia 2W 1D 2L
Atletico-MG 1–1 Bahia (Serie A – Brazil): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 July 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Atletico-MG for / against | Line | Bahia for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.38 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.75our book | 1.63 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4.63 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 7.75 for · 5.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 11.63 for · 13.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 16.13 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.5 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 5.5 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 10.25 for · 13.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 14.88 for · 14.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 3.25 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
Referee: B. Machado.
Atletico-MG
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyanco n 8 | 59.3 | 2.8 | 1.3 | — |
| Mamady Cisse n 8 | 20.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | — |
| A. Franco n 8 | 57.5 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Alexsander n 8 | 37.9 | 1.8 | 3 | — |
| Bernard n 8 | 66.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | Ademir |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Scarpa n 8 | 38 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| A. Minda n 8 | 57.3 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Cuello n 8 | 79 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Victor Hugo n 8 | 68.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Mamady Cisse n 8 | 20.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| M. Cassierra n 8 | 87.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Bernard n 8 | 66.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Gustavo Scarpa n 8 | 38 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Mamady Cisse n 8 | 20.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Vitor Hugo n 8 | 82.1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Alexsander n 8 | 37.9 | 3.3 |
| A. Franco n 8 | 57.5 | 2.5 |
| Lyanco n 8 | 59.3 | 2.3 |
| T. Perez n 8 | 66.5 | 2.2 |
| K. Pascini n 7 | 41.4 | 1.9 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Everson n 8 | 91.4 | 3.9 |
Bahia
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ademir n 8 | 37 | 3.6 | 1.8 | Bernard |
| Jean Lucas n 8 | 69.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | — |
| Michel Araújo n 8 | 23.1 | 2.4 | 1.5 | — |
| Caio Alexandre n 8 | 58 | 2.1 | 1.7 | — |
| Iago Borduchi n 8 | 42.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Nestor n 8 | 38.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 |
| Mateo Sanabria n 8 | 31.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Michel Araújo n 8 | 23.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| Everaldo n 8 | 37 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| Cristian Olivera n 8 | 51.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Sanabria n 8 | 31.4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Luciano Juba n 8 | 87.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Everton Ribeiro n 8 | 62.4 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Erick n 8 | 75.5 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Willian Jose n 8 | 72.3 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Michel Araújo n 8 | 23.1 | 4.9 |
| Ademir n 8 | 37 | 2.4 |
| Nicolás Acevedo n 8 | 92 | 2.3 |
| Zé Guilherme n 8 | 48.6 | 2.3 |
| Everton Ribeiro n 8 | 62.4 | 1.8 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Leo Vieira n 8 | 85.5 | 3.6 |
| Ronaldo n 8 | 87.3 | 2.1 |
The next free picks, by email
The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.
Match statistics & details
| Atletico-MG | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| 53% | Possession | 47% |
| 16 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 8 | Shots off target | 12 |
| 4 | Blocked shots | 5 |
| 13 | Shots inside the box | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 399 | Passes | 406 |
Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Atletico-MG v Bahia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2025-11-05 Atletico-MG 3–0 Bahia
- 2025-07-13 Bahia 2–1 Atletico-MG
- 2024-09-15 Bahia 3–0 Atletico-MG
- 2024-06-02 Atletico-MG 1–1 Bahia
- 2023-12-07 Bahia 4–1 Atletico-MG
- 2023-08-13 Atletico-MG 1–0 Bahia
The full post-match picture
Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.
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Frequently asked questions
- What was the model’s pick for Atletico-MG v Bahia?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Atletico-MG v Bahia was Home or Away.
- What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Bahia?
- In their last 6 meetings, Atletico-MG won 2, Bahia won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Atletico-MG and Bahia?
- Recent form — Atletico-MG 4W 0D 1L; Bahia 2W 1D 2L.
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