Genoa v AC Milan prediction

Serie A · Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT · Stadio Luigi Ferraris

Updated 5 Nov 2026, 23:48 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Genoa · AC Milan · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Draw or Away the free pick for Genoa v AC Milan, Serie A on Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT.

Free pick

Draw or Away

Best price: 1.23 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.3% of 1454 landed (95% range 65.9–70.6%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated draw or away (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 829 of 1,283 times (64.6%), against an average rating of 69.6%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Genoa host AC Milan in Serie A on Sunday 8 November (kick-off 14:00 UK); the model’s free pick is the draw or AC Milan, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

AC Milan are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Genoa, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

Six of Genoa’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in seven of Genoa’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Genoa have five wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 1.78 points per game, scoring 1.44 and conceding 1.22. Genoa have scored 10 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games). Genoa have conceded 14 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Nine of AC Milan’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of AC Milan’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, AC Milan have three wins, three draws and one defeat in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.71 points per game, scoring 1.71 and conceding 1.14. AC Milan have scored 21 goals, the fifth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games). AC Milan have conceded 12 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Genoa have won their last three matches in all competitions. Genoa (11th) and AC Milan (fifth) are eight points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have AC Milan the stronger side, 163 rating points above Genoa (AC Milan 1789, Genoa 1626, after at least 314 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Genoa 1–2 AC Milan.

Team news

Genoa have one name on the availability list: L. Venturino (out, Jumpers Knee) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-11-05. Predicted Genoa XI (3-4-2-1): J. Bijlow, L. Østigård, J. Vásquez, A. Marcandalli, M. Frendrup, M. Ellertsson, S. Wiafe, H. Traorè, J. Messias, S. El Shaarawy, M. Osmajić — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Junior Messias (4.5 per match over 11 appearances, two goals and one assist) and Mario Mitaj (3.8 per match over four appearances, one assist) have been Genoa’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Genoa (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Junior Messias averages 1.8 shots per 90 over 541 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances. Mario Mitaj averages 1.2 tackles per 90 over 580 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last nine appearances.

Predicted AC Milan XI (3-4-2-1): M. Maignan, K. De Winter, S. Pavlović, M. Gila, Y. Musah, A. Jashari, A. Rabiot, L. Modrić, O. Hutchinson, D. Moreira, G. Ramos — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Diego Moreira (4.8 per match over nine appearances, four goals and three assists) and A. Rabiot (4.5 per match over 12 appearances, five goals and four assists) have been AC Milan’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for AC Milan (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Diego Moreira averages 1.3 shots per 90 over 828 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances. A. Rabiot averages 1.2 key passes per 90 over 1622 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT · Serie A · Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Genoa 0 · draws 3 · AC Milan 3 · 2.5 goals/game
Recent form: Genoa 4W 0D 1L · AC Milan 2W 0D 3L

Genoa v AC Milan (Serie A): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.88

Goals

against 0.88 / 1.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5 / 3

Corners

against 6 / 4.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.75 / 4.63

Shots on target

against 4.25 / 5.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.13 / 2.13

Cards

against 1.63 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Genoa for / against	Line	AC Milan for / against
Goals scored	1.25 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	1.88 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5 for · 6 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.63 for · 14.75 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11 for · 13.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.75 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.63 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.13 for · 13.38 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.13 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.13 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5

Genoa

Genoa Goalkeeper

Genoa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Bijlow	11	90990 min	353.2 /90	141.3 /90	00 /90
F. Stolz	1	9090 min	22 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Genoa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Genoa before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Bijlow n 8	90	3.9 7/7

Genoa Defensive

Genoa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
A. Marcandalli	12	78935 min	212 /90	90.9 /90	60.6 /90	454.3 /90	80.8 /90	10.1 /90
L. Østigård	11	84921 min	171.7 /90	90.9 /90	141.4 /90	605.9 /90	101 /90	50.5 /90
J. Vásquez	10	88881 min	232.3 /90	161.6 /90	50.5 /90	525.3 /90	70.7 /90	40.4 /90
S. Otoa	6	58345 min	71.8 /90	61.6 /90	10.3 /90	225.7 /90	51.3 /90	20.5 /90
K. Ehizibue	6	54324 min	51.4 /90	20.6 /90	00 /90	123.3 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90
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Genoa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Genoa before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
A. Marcandalli n 8	73	1.1 4/1	0.5 3/0	—
J. Bijlow n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
L. Østigård n 8	90	0.8 5/1	0.9 3/2	—
M. Frendrup n 8	81.4	0.4 3/0	0.6 3/1	—
M. Ellertsson n 8	81.5	1.2 6/3	1.2 5/3	—
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Genoa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Genoa before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Marcandalli n 8	73	1.8 7/4
M. Frendrup n 8	81.4	2.2 7/5
L. Østigård n 8	90	1.8 8/4
M. Ellertsson n 8	81.5	2.3 8/5
Junior Messias n 8	57.6	2.7 5/3
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Genoa Attacking

Genoa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Junior Messias	11	49541 min	20.3 /90	10.2 /90	111.8 /90	50.8 /90	111.8 /90	162.7 /90
Vítinha	10	58576 min	00 /90	00 /90	162.5 /90	50.8 /90	30.5 /90	40.6 /90
M. Osmajić	9	82735 min	40.5 /90	10.1 /90	131.6 /90	50.6 /90	91.1 /90	20.2 /90
L. Colombo	8	56444 min	10.2 /90	20.4 /90	91.8 /90	51 /90	81.6 /90	30.6 /90
S. El Shaarawy	7	48333 min	00 /90	20.5 /90	71.9 /90	20.5 /90	51.4 /90	51.4 /90
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Genoa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Genoa before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Marcandalli n 8	73	0.6 3/1	0 0/0
J. Bijlow n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Østigård n 8	90	0.8 4/2	0.4 3/0
M. Frendrup n 8	81.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
M. Ellertsson n 8	81.5	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
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Genoa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Genoa before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
A. Marcandalli n 8	73	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Bijlow n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Østigård n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Frendrup n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Ellertsson n 8	81.5	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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AC Milan

AC Milan Goalkeeper

AC Milan — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Maignan	13	851107 min	393.2 /90	70.6 /90	00 /90
L. Torriani	2	74148 min	74.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90

AC Milan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Maignan n 8	82.1	3.7 8/5
L. Torriani n 3	62.3	4.8 2/2

AC Milan Defensive

AC Milan — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
K. De Winter	14	891240 min	231.7 /90	191.4 /90	60.4 /90	594.3 /90	211.5 /90	40.3 /90
S. Pavlović	13	891161 min	292.2 /90	100.8 /90	40.3 /90	866.7 /90	131 /90	30.2 /90
Mario Gila	10	78784 min	131.5 /90	91 /90	10.1 /90	364.1 /90	80.9 /90	10.1 /90
S. Bocoum	5	55275 min	72.3 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90	175.6 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
F. Tomori	4	63251 min	93.2 /90	41.4 /90	00 /90	155.4 /90	20.7 /90	10.4 /90
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AC Milan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
K. De Winter n 8	87.5	1.5 7/4	0.9 4/2	—
S. Pavlović n 8	88.9	0.9 5/2	1.5 6/3	—
M. Maignan n 8	82.1	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0	—
Gonçalo Ramos n 8	81.9	1.5 5/2	1.8 6/3	—
Y. Musah n 8	71	1.1 5/1	1.3 5/3	—
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AC Milan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
K. De Winter n 8	87.5	1.8 7/4
S. Pavlović n 8	88.9	2 8/6
Gonçalo Ramos n 8	81.9	0.5 3/1
Y. Musah n 8	71	1.4 4/4
A. Rabiot n 8	71.6	2 7/3
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AC Milan Attacking

AC Milan — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Gonçalo Ramos	13	851100 min	30.2 /90	10.1 /90	282.3 /90	110.9 /90	80.7 /90	50.4 /90
A. Cissè	9	64574 min	71.1 /90	00 /90	142.2 /90	91.4 /90	40.6 /90	40.6 /90
A. Saelemaekers	5	44218 min	00 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90	00 /90	62.5 /90	20.8 /90
F. Camarda	3	37110 min	00 /90	00 /90	43.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	21.6 /90
Y. Musah	12	74883 min	00 /90	00 /90	30.3 /90	00 /90	40.4 /90	50.5 /90
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AC Milan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
K. De Winter n 8	87.5	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
S. Pavlović n 8	88.9	0.6 5/0	0.3 2/0
M. Maignan n 8	82.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
Gonçalo Ramos n 8	81.9	1.9 5/5	1 4/2
Y. Musah n 8	71	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
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AC Milan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
K. De Winter n 8	87.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Pavlović n 8	88.9	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
M. Maignan n 8	82.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
Gonçalo Ramos n 8	81.9	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
Y. Musah n 8	71	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Genoa v AC Milan — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

GenoaWLWWW

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.4 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

AC MilanLWLWL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.4 scored / 2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Genoa 0 · 3 draws · AC Milan 3 · 2.5 goals/game

2026-05-17 Genoa 1–2 AC Milan
2026-01-08 AC Milan 1–1 Genoa
2025-05-05 Genoa 1–2 AC Milan
2024-12-15 AC Milan 0–0 Genoa
2024-05-05 AC Milan 3–3 Genoa
2023-10-07 Genoa 0–1 AC Milan

League standing · 2026/27

Genoa#11 pos13 pts10 pl-4 GD

AC Milan#5 pos21 pts10 pl+9 GD

Goals per game

Genoa scored1

AC Milan scored2.1

Genoa conceded1.4

AC Milan conceded1.2

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Genoa v AC Milan?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Genoa v AC Milan is Draw or Away (best price 1.23 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AC Milan?: In their last 6 meetings, Genoa won 0, AC Milan won 3 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Genoa and AC Milan?: Recent form — Genoa 4W 0D 1L; AC Milan 2W 0D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 5 Nov 2026, 23:48 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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