Sassuolo v Fiorentina prediction

Serie A · · MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Sassuolo · Fiorentina · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Sassuolo v Fiorentina, Serie A on Mon, 02 Nov 2026 17:30 GMT.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.62 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 66.8% of 578 landed (95% range 62.8–70.5%); it had given them 76.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Predicted on 25 October 2026, before the fixture moved
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 501 of 772 times (64.9%), against an average rating of 67.9%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Sassuolo host Fiorentina in Serie A on Monday 2 November (kick-off 17:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Fiorentina have scored in eight consecutive matches in all competitions. Sassuolo are winless in their last five matches in all competitions. Fiorentina are winless in their last five matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

10 of Sassuolo’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 11 of Sassuolo’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). At home, Sassuolo have four wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.75 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.75. Sassuolo have scored 14 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Sassuolo have conceded 22 goals, the second-most of the 20 clubs.

11 of Fiorentina’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in nine of Fiorentina’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Fiorentina have two wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.33 and conceding 2.33. Fiorentina have scored 11 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Fiorentina have conceded 21 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs.

Sassuolo (15th) and Fiorentina (18th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Sassuolo the stronger side, 33 rating points above Fiorentina (Sassuolo 1489, Fiorentina 1456, after at least 313 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 26 April 2026, finished Fiorentina 0–0 Sassuolo.

Team news

Sassuolo have five names on the availability list: D. Boloca (out, Muscle Injury), F. Leysen (out, Knee Injury), I. Kone (out, Broken Leg), K. Thorstvedt (out, Red Card) and Y. Paz (out, Knee Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-31. Predicted Sassuolo XI (4-3-3): A. Murić, D. Ćaleta-Car, J. Doig, C. Odenthal, S. Cinquegrano, D. Bakola, N. Matić, L. Lipani, A. Laurienté, S. Esposito, K. Bowie — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Darryl Bakola (4.8 per match over 10 appearances, three assists) and Vasilije Adžić (4.1 per match over eight appearances, four goals and one assist) have been Sassuolo’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Sassuolo (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Darryl Bakola averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 712 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances. Vasilije Adžić averages 2.3 key passes per 90 over 712 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Fiorentina have five names on the availability list: A. Atta (out, Abdominal strain), F. Parisi (out, Knee Injury), M. Pongracic (out, Muscle Injury), R. Sottil (out, Back Injury) and L. Ranieri (doubtful, Leg Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-31. Predicted Fiorentina XI (4-2-3-1): D. de Gea, R. Drăgușin, Á. Jiménez, Viery, Valde, C. Ndour, N. Fagioli, M. Brescianini, C. Inao Oulaï, Pote, M. Pellegrino — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Franco Mastantuono (4.9 per match over 11 appearances, three goals) and Álex Jiménez (4.5 per match over nine appearances, two goals and three assists) have been Fiorentina’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Fiorentina (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Franco Mastantuono averages 2.7 shots per 90 over 962 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. Álex Jiménez averages 2.9 tackles per 90 over 624 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last nine appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A · MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Sassuolo 2 · draws 1 · Fiorentina 3 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: Sassuolo 0W 1D 4L · Fiorentina 0W 2D 3L

Sassuolo v Fiorentina (Serie A): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 1.75
Goals
against 2.5 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
4 / 4.75
Corners
against 6.29 / 3.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.57 / 5.38
Shots on target
against 7 / 5 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.57 / 2.13
Cards
against 2.29 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 29 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 29 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSassuolo for / againstLineFiorentina for / against
Goals scored
1.5 for · 2.5 against n 8
3.25our book
1.75 for · 1.75 against n 8
Corners won
4 for · 6.29 against n 7
9.5standard
4.75 for · 3.5 against n 8
Shots
12.14 for · 16.71 against n 7
19.5standard
16 for · 13.13 against n 8
Shots on target
4.57 for · 7 against n 7
8.5standard
5.38 for · 5 against n 8
Fouls committed
9 for · 13 against n 7
21.5standard
11.63 for · 10.88 against n 8
Cards shown
1.57 for · 2.29 against n 7
3.5standard
2.13 for · 1.75 against n 8

Sassuolo

Sassuolo Goalkeeper

Sassuolo — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
A. Murić890720 min374.6 /90131.6 /9000 /90
S. Turati290180 min63 /9021 /9000 /90
Sassuolo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sassuolo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Murić n 890
4.68/8
S. Turati n 889.1
2.97/4

Sassuolo Defensive

Sassuolo — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Josh Doig1078777 min151.7 /90111.3 /9020.2 /90263 /9050.6 /9000 /90
S. Cinquegrano690540 min61 /9061 /9030.5 /90172.8 /9071.2 /9000 /90
F. Leysen667402 min92 /9040.9 /9051.1 /90235.1 /9040.9 /9010.2 /90
D. Ćaleta-Car588442 min71.4 /9071.4 /9051 /90193.9 /9040.8 /9000 /90
C. Odenthal585424 min71.5 /9020.4 /9010.2 /90132.8 /9030.6 /9000 /90
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Sassuolo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sassuolo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Laurienté n 878.9
13/2
27/5
—
Josh Doig n 874.6
0.64/0
0.52/1
—
Kieron Bowie n 848.3
1.65/2
2.14/3
—
D. Bakola n 876.5
0.73/2
1.56/2
—
N. Matić n 875.8
0.63/1
0.74/1
—
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Sassuolo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sassuolo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Laurienté n 878.9
0.43/0
Josh Doig n 874.6
1.46/3
Kieron Bowie n 848.3
0.73/0
D. Bakola n 876.5
3.17/5
N. Matić n 875.8
1.85/5
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Sassuolo Attacking

Sassuolo — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Laurienté1081811 min00 /9010.1 /90232.6 /9070.8 /90161.8 /90151.7 /90
Kieron Bowie1054540 min10.2 /9000 /90132.2 /9061 /90111.8 /9010.2 /90
D. Berardi866530 min20.3 /9000 /90101.7 /9091.5 /90101.7 /9030.5 /90
B. Domínguez728193 min00 /9000 /9031.4 /9010.5 /9020.9 /9073.3 /90
S. Esposito566332 min20.5 /9000 /9041.1 /9030.8 /9082.2 /9020.5 /90
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Sassuolo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sassuolo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Laurienté n 878.9
2.16/3
0.63/1
Josh Doig n 874.6
0.64/0
0.21/0
Kieron Bowie n 848.3
1.96/2
0.94/0
D. Bakola n 876.5
0.95/1
0.32/0
N. Matić n 875.8
0.32/0
00/0
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Sassuolo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sassuolo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Laurienté n 878.9
00/0
0.11/0
Josh Doig n 874.6
0.21/0
00/0
Kieron Bowie n 848.3
0.21/0
00/0
D. Bakola n 876.5
00/0
0.32/0
N. Matić n 875.8
00/0
0.11/0
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Fiorentina

Fiorentina Goalkeeper

Fiorentina — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
David de Gea1190990 min363.3 /90201.8 /9000 /90
Fiorentina — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
David de Gea n 890
3.26/4

Fiorentina Defensive

Fiorentina — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
R. Drăgușin1186942 min90.9 /90242.3 /9090.9 /90383.6 /90111.1 /9010.1 /90
Álex Jiménez969624 min202.9 /9020.3 /9010.1 /90365.2 /9020.3 /9010.1 /90
Viery960537 min162.7 /9050.8 /9030.5 /90233.9 /90101.7 /9030.5 /90
Valde874593 min71.1 /9020.3 /9010.2 /90253.8 /9091.4 /9020.3 /90
João Mário669413 min71.5 /9030.7 /9030.7 /90163.5 /9051.1 /9000 /90
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Fiorentina — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
David de Gea n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
R. Drăgușin n 884.4
0.95/2
0.73/2
—
C. Ndour n 885.6
0.85/1
0.43/0
—
Franco Mastantuono n 875.9
1.55/4
2.87/6
—
N. Fagioli n 876.6
0.74/1
1.35/3
—
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Fiorentina — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
R. Drăgușin n 884.4
0.85/1
C. Ndour n 885.6
2.18/5
Franco Mastantuono n 875.9
3.17/5
N. Fagioli n 876.6
2.26/5
Mateo Pellegrino n 867.8
0.74/0
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Fiorentina Attacking

Fiorentina — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Franco Mastantuono1172792 min30.3 /9000 /90263 /90101.1 /90192.2 /90202.3 /90
Mateo Pellegrino1072722 min30.4 /9000 /90131.6 /9060.7 /90111.4 /9050.6 /90
A. Njie870556 min10.2 /9020.3 /90121.9 /9050.8 /90152.4 /90152.4 /90
W. Gnonto744309 min10.3 /9000 /9072 /9030.9 /9030.9 /9020.6 /90
Beto442167 min00 /9010.5 /9042.2 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9010.5 /90
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Fiorentina — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
David de Gea n 890
00/0
00/0
R. Drăgușin n 884.4
0.43/0
0.11/0
C. Ndour n 885.6
1.15/2
0.32/0
Franco Mastantuono n 875.9
2.77/4
1.35/1
N. Fagioli n 876.6
1.25/2
0.63/1
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Fiorentina — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
David de Gea n 890
00/0
00/0
R. Drăgușin n 884.4
00/0
0.11/0
C. Ndour n 885.6
00/0
0.11/0
Franco Mastantuono n 875.9
0.41/1
00/0
N. Fagioli n 876.6
00/0
0.32/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Sassuolo v Fiorentina — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SassuoloLDLLL
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 1.2 scored / 3 conceded per game
FiorentinaDLLLD
Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 1.2 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Sassuolo 2 · 1 draw · Fiorentina 3 · 3 goals/game
  • 2026-04-26 Fiorentina 0–0 Sassuolo
  • 2025-12-06 Sassuolo 3–1 Fiorentina
  • 2024-04-28 Fiorentina 5–1 Sassuolo
  • 2024-01-06 Sassuolo 1–0 Fiorentina
  • 2023-06-02 Sassuolo 1–3 Fiorentina
  • 2023-01-07 Fiorentina 2–1 Sassuolo
League standing · 2026/27
Sassuolo#15 pos8 pts9 pl-8 GD
Fiorentina#18 pos5 pts9 pl-10 GD
Goals per game
Sassuolo scored1.56
Fiorentina scored1.22
Sassuolo conceded2.44
Fiorentina conceded2.33

See the full prediction

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Sassuolo v Fiorentina?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Sassuolo v Fiorentina is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.62 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Fiorentina?
In their last 6 meetings, Sassuolo won 2, Fiorentina won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Sassuolo and Fiorentina?
Recent form — Sassuolo 0W 1D 4L; Fiorentina 0W 2D 3L.

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