FC Thun v FC Lugano prediction

Super League · · Stockhorn Arena

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: FC Thun · FC Lugano · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Away win the free pick for FC Thun v FC Lugano, Super League on Sun, 25 Oct 2026 13:00 GMT.

Free pick
Away win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Away win in the last 90 days, 84.8% of 92 landed (95% range 76.1–90.7%); it had given them 76.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

FC Thun host FC Lugano in the Super League (Switzerland) on Sunday 25 October (kick-off 13:00 UK); the model’s free pick is FC Lugano to win.

The key numbers

FC Lugano have conceded seven goals, the fewest of the 12 clubs (2026/27 so far).

FC Lugano are unbeaten in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions. FC Lugano have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

12 of FC Thun’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%). Both teams scored in nine of FC Thun’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, FC Thun have one win, two draws and three defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 0.83 points per game, scoring 1.17 and conceding 2.17. FC Thun have scored 17 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 12 clubs (2026/27 so far). FC Thun have conceded 27 goals, the most of the 12 clubs.

12 of FC Lugano’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%). Both teams scored in 10 of FC Lugano’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, FC Lugano have five wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 2.43 points per game, scoring 3.00 and conceding 1.00. FC Lugano have scored 31 goals, the second-most of the 12 clubs (2026/27 so far).

FC Thun (ninth) and FC Lugano (first) are 18 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have FC Lugano the stronger side, 512 rating points above FC Thun (FC Lugano 1915, FC Thun 1403, after at least 162 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

FC Lugano are unbeaten in the last three meetings with FC Thun. The most recent meeting, on 25 April 2026, finished FC Thun 0–1 FC Lugano.

Team news

Predicted FC Thun XI (4-4-2): N. Steffen, J. Bamert, F. Fehr, N. Burgy, T. Strannegård, J. Roth, N. Reichmuth, N. Zoukit, F. Saiz, B. Labeau, F. Dursun — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Fabio Fehr (5.2 per match over 11 appearances, one goal and four assists) and Fabio Saiz (4.1 per match over nine appearances, two goals and one assist) have been FC Thun’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for FC Thun (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Fabio Fehr averages 3.6 tackles per 90 over 823 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances. Fabio Saiz averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 683 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last nine appearances.

Predicted FC Lugano XI (3-5-1-1): D. von Ballmoos, A. Papadopoulos, L. Mai, H. Delcroix, A. Grgic, Y. Cimignani, D. Dos Santos, U. Bislimi, B. Karimov, M. Zanotti, D. Moncada — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Kevin Behrens (5.0 per match over 10 appearances, eight goals and two assists) and Anto Grgic (4.3 per match over 17 appearances, two goals and four assists) have been FC Lugano’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for FC Lugano (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Kevin Behrens averages 3.5 shots per 90 over 622 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. Anto Grgic averages 2.2 key passes per 90 over 1414 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Super League · Stockhorn Arena
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): FC Thun 2 · draws 1 · FC Lugano 3 · 2.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: FC Thun 1W 0D 4L · FC Lugano 4W 1D 0L

FC Thun v FC Lugano (Super League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.5 / 2.88
Goals
against 2.13 / 0.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.25 / 5.88
Corners
against 5.38 / 4.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.38 / 5.5
Shots on target
against 4.75 / 4.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.75 / 3.13
Cards
against 1.75 / 2.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameFC Thun for / againstLineFC Lugano for / against
Goals scored
1.5 for · 2.13 against n 8
2.5standard
2.88 for · 0.88 against n 8
Corners won
5.25 for · 5.38 against n 8
9.5standard
5.88 for · 4.38 against n 8
Shots
14.38 for · 16.5 against n 8
19.5standard
17.25 for · 13.75 against n 8
Shots on target
3.38 for · 4.75 against n 8
8.5standard
5.5 for · 4.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
17.88 for · 10.75 against n 8
21.5standard
12.38 for · 11.38 against n 8
Cards shown
2.75 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
3.13 for · 2.25 against n 8
FC Thun
FC Thun — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Reichmuth n 871.6
2.88/5
1.14/3
—
P. Kristal n 852.5
2.86/6
1.94/3
—
Simon Lengen n 448.3
2.83/2
00/0
—
F. Dursun n 856.8
2.65/4
1.64/3
—
Nico Maier n 837.4
2.45/2
0.93/0
—
FC Thun — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
R. Braschi n 626.3
2.84/1
0.61/0
N. Reichmuth n 871.6
2.76/3
0.83/1
F. Fehr n 870.1
2.16/3
0.53/0
Nico Maier n 837.4
2.13/3
0.31/0
F. Dursun n 856.8
25/3
0.63/0
FC Thun — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
F. Dursun n 856.8
0.42/0
0.83/1
D. Derbaci n 555.4
0.31/0
0.31/0
Fabio Saiz n 873.4
0.31/1
0.21/0
F. Fehr n 870.1
0.21/0
0.32/0
Simon Lengen n 448.3
0.51/0
00/0
FC Thun — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Louis Passavant  n 411.5
5.92/1
F. Fehr n 870.1
3.57/6
N. Zoukit n 864.1
3.37/5
Nico Maier n 837.4
3.35/3
Tom Strannegård n 860.1
37/4
FC Thun — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
N. Steffen n 890
2.56/5
FC Lugano
FC Lugano — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Steffen n 864.8
2.46/5
1.97/3
—
M. Zanotti n 855.3
2.45/4
1.65/3
—
D. Moncada n 853.9
2.38/2
2.15/3
—
Joao Carbone n 723.4
2.23/1
0.51/0
—
A. Ajeti n 834.4
23/2
2.93/2
—
FC Lugano — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Beckham Castro n 823.1
4.47/2
2.45/0
K. Behrens n 865.3
3.16/3
2.26/3
D. Moncada n 853.9
2.98/3
15/0
A. Ajeti n 834.4
2.95/3
24/2
Daniel Dos Santos n 876
2.57/4
0.94/1
FC Lugano — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Beckham Castro n 823.1
12/0
1.53/0
K. Behrens n 865.3
1.45/2
0.21/0
D. Moncada n 853.9
0.84/0
0.21/0
A. Ajeti n 834.4
13/0
00/0
A. Kendouci n 825.3
0.41/0
0.41/0
FC Lugano — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
E. Pihlstrom n 842.8
3.24/3
M. Zanotti n 855.3
3.16/3
A. Kendouci n 825.3
3.14/2
Martim Marques n 830.9
2.96/2
E. Alioski n 865.9
2.68/4
FC Lugano — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
D. von Ballmoos n 884.4
3.67/6
F. Gebhardt n 684.3
2.74/3

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind FC Thun v FC Lugano — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
FC ThunLLWLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1.2 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
FC LuganoDWWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 3.4 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
FC Thun 2 · 1 draw · FC Lugano 3 · 2.17 goals/game
  • 2026-04-25 FC Thun 0–1 FC Lugano
  • 2026-04-04 FC Lugano 1–0 FC Thun
  • 2025-11-22 FC Thun 0–1 FC Lugano
  • 2025-07-27 FC Lugano 1–2 FC Thun
  • 2020-07-15 FC Lugano 1–1 FC Thun
  • 2020-02-09 FC Thun 3–2 FC Lugano
League standing · 2026/27
FC Thun#9 pos10 pts10 pl-10 GD
FC Lugano#1 pos28 pts10 pl+24 GD
Goals per game
FC Thun scored1.7
FC Lugano scored3.1
FC Thun conceded2.7
FC Lugano conceded0.7

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win FC Thun v FC Lugano?
TACTIX’s free model pick for FC Thun v FC Lugano is Away win.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Lugano?
In their last 6 meetings, FC Thun won 2, FC Lugano won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of FC Thun and FC Lugano?
Recent form — FC Thun 1W 0D 4L; FC Lugano 4W 1D 0L.

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