Tondela v Alverca prediction
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 1.5 goals the free pick for Tondela vs Alverca, Taça de Portugal on Sun, 18 Oct 2026 15:00 BST.
The match
Tondela host Alverca in the Taça de Portugal on Sunday 18 October (kick-off 15:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 1.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.
The key numbers
Tondela have scored in five consecutive matches.
Alverca have scored in seven consecutive matches.
Form and the table
Seven of Tondela’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in seven of Tondela’s last 15 results (47%). At home, Tondela have one win, four draws and two defeats in their last 7 home matches — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.14.
Alverca have won their last three matches. Eight of Alverca’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in 10 of Alverca’s last 15 results (67%). Away from home, Alverca have three wins, no draws and five defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.13 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.38.
TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Tondela the stronger side, 25 rating points above Alverca (Tondela 1892, Alverca 1867, after at least 21 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 13 February 2026, finished Tondela 1–1 Alverca.
Team news
By TACTIX Impact, Chiquinho (7.4 per match over six appearances, two goals and two assists) and Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques (5.2 per match over four appearances, three assists) have been Alverca’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Alverca (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Chiquinho averages 2.3 shots per 90 over 467 minutes, with a shot in five of the last six appearances. Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 339 minutes.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Taça de Portugal
- Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 2): Tondela 0 · draws 1 · Alverca 1 · 1.5 goals/game
- Recent form: Tondela 3W 1D 1L · Alverca 3W 1D 1L
As of 17 October 2026, TACTIX’s model — calibration published live, losing picks included — covers Tondela v Alverca across 19 markets; the key numbers are on this page. See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Tondela for / against | Line | Alverca for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.63 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5our book | 1.63 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4.29 for · 6.43 against n 7 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 4.75 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 11.43 for · 14.14 against n 7 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 12.13 for · 12.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 3.57 for · 4.86 against n 7 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.13 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 13.57 for · 13.86 against n 7 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 14.63 for · 11 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 3 for · 3.71 against n 7 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.38 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5 |
Tondela
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Siebatcheu n 8 | 33.3 | 2.4 | 2 | — |
| João Silva n 8 | 87.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | — |
| B. Mbunga Kimpioka n 8 | 28.4 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Christian Marques n 8 | 90.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | — |
| J. Hodge n 8 | 81.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rony Lopes n 8 | 64 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Pedro Maranhão n 8 | 87 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| M. Aïko n 8 | 49.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Hugo Félix n 8 | 52.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| A. van der Heide n 8 | 28.1 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bebeto n 8 | 79.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Cícero n 8 | 68.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Rony Lopes n 8 | 64 | 0.4 | 0 |
| M. Aïko n 8 | 49.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Rodrigo Conceição n 8 | 73.4 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Bebeto n 8 | 79.3 | 3.1 |
| Rodrigo Conceição n 8 | 73.4 | 3.1 |
| João Silva n 8 | 87.3 | 3 |
| S. Sithole n 8 | 67.8 | 2.8 |
| B. Medina n 8 | 88.1 | 2.7 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Bernardo Fontes n 8 | 90.5 | 1.5 |
Alverca
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivaldo Semedo n 8 | 47.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | — |
| D. Gui n 8 | 63.1 | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| Figueiredo n 8 | 78.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | — |
| Francisco Chissumba n 8 | 66.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | — |
| D. Camara n 8 | 52.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. Camara n 8 | 52.4 | 3 | 1.5 |
| M. Essimi Ateba n 8 | 32.5 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Chiquinho n 8 | 79.3 | 2 | 0.9 |
| Matheus França n 8 | 27.8 | 2 | 1.2 |
| Vivaldo Semedo n 8 | 47.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco Moreira n 8 | 12.4 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Vivaldo Semedo n 8 | 47.8 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Chiquinho n 8 | 79.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| D. Camara n 8 | 52.4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques n 8 | 63 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| D. Gui n 8 | 63.1 | 4.3 |
| Chiquinho n 8 | 79.3 | 3.3 |
| Rayan n 7 | 59.3 | 3.3 |
| I. James n 8 | 85.5 | 2.6 |
| Toni Tamarit n 8 | 49.1 | 2.1 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Matheus Mendes n 8 | 90 | 3.1 |
The day’s free picks, by email
Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.
Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Tondela v Alverca — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-02-13 Tondela 1–1 Alverca
- 2025-09-12 Alverca 1–0 Tondela
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Tondela vs Alverca?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Tondela v Alverca is Over 1.5 goals (best price 1.29 at Betvictor).
- What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Alverca?
- In their last 2 meetings, Tondela won 0, Alverca won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 1.5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Tondela and Alverca?
- Recent form — Tondela 3W 1D 1L; Alverca 3W 1D 1L.
Today’s boards
Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.
This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.