AS Roma v Real Madrid prediction
Team pages: AS Roma · Real Madrid
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for AS Roma v Real Madrid, UEFA Champions League on Wed, 14 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.
The match
AS Roma host Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 14 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 14 matches.
Real Madrid have scored in five consecutive matches.
Form and the table
Eight of AS Roma’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in six of AS Roma’s last 15 results (40%). At home, AS Roma have five wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 7 home matches — 2.43 points per game, scoring 2.57 and conceding 0.57.
Eight of Real Madrid’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in eight of Real Madrid’s last 15 results (53%). Away from home, Real Madrid have four wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.63 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.13.
AS Roma (17th) and Real Madrid (14th) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Real Madrid the stronger side, 300 rating points above AS Roma (Real Madrid 1984, AS Roma 1685, after at least 21 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 27 November 2018, finished AS Roma 0–2 Real Madrid.
Team news
AS Roma have four names on the availability list: B. Cristante (out, Injury), K. Koulierakis (out, Knock), M. Bah (out, Knee Injury) and M. Svilar (out, Toe Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-12. By TACTIX Impact, Donyell Malen (5.8 per match over seven appearances, six goals and one assist) and Paulo Dybala (5.0 per match over seven appearances, four assists) have been AS Roma’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for AS Roma (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Donyell Malen averages 3.3 shots per 90 over 892 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. Paulo Dybala averages 3.2 shots per 90 over 586 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last seven appearances.
Real Madrid have four names on the availability list: Eder Militao (out, Hamstring Injury), F. Mendy (out, Hip Injury), R. Asencio (out, Broken Leg) and Rodrygo (out, Knee Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-12. By TACTIX Impact, Kylian Mbappé (7.4 per match over nine appearances, eight goals and two assists) and Jude Bellingham (6.1 per match over nine appearances, three goals and two assists) have been Real Madrid’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Real Madrid (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Kylian Mbappé averages 4.3 shots per 90 over 1719 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. Jude Bellingham averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 1726 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Champions League · Stadio Olimpico
- Referee: Francois Letexier
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 2): AS Roma 0 · draws 0 · Real Madrid 2 · 2.5 goals/game
- Recent form: AS Roma 2W 3D 0L · Real Madrid 4W 0D 1L
AS Roma v Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 12 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | AS Roma for / against | Line | Real Madrid for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 2.13 for · 0.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5our book | 2.38 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.63 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 17.38 for · 10.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 17.25 for · 14.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5.88 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 7.13 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 12.88 for · 9.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 9 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.88 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.38 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
AS Roma
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Koné n 8 | 58.8 | 2.9 | 2.1 | — |
| M. de Roon n 8 | 38.8 | 2.6 | 0 | — |
| E. Ndicka n 8 | 73 | 2.5 | 0.5 | — |
| B. Cristante n 8 | 86.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | — |
| Z. Çelik n 8 | 86.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. Malen n 8 | 69.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| P. Dybala n 8 | 84.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| S. Castro n 8 | 46.9 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| Rodrigo Mora n 8 | 46.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| M. Soulé n 8 | 55.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. Malen n 8 | 69.6 | 1 | 0.2 |
| P. Dybala n 8 | 84.5 | 0 | 0.8 |
| L. Pellegrini n 8 | 63.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| N. Pisilli n 8 | 47.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| M. Soulé n 8 | 55.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| D. Ghilardi n 8 | 37.6 | 4.5 |
| Nahuel Molina n 8 | 56 | 3.8 |
| M. de Roon n 8 | 38.8 | 2.9 |
| Z. Çelik n 8 | 86.8 | 2.6 |
| E. Lulli n 5 | 64.6 | 2.5 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Svilar n 8 | 90 | 2.8 |
| P. Gollini n 8 | 90 | 2.1 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernardo Silva n 8 | 37.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | — |
| Vinícius Júnior n 8 | 63.8 | 1.8 | 2.3 | — |
| Carlos Espí n 8 | 37.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | — |
| Dean Huijsen n 8 | 85.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | — |
| I. Konaté n 8 | 90 | 1.3 | 0.4 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Espí n 8 | 37.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 |
| Kylian Mbappé n 8 | 86 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| Vinícius Júnior n 8 | 63.8 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| A. Güler n 8 | 68.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| J. Bellingham n 8 | 69.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Espí n 8 | 37.6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Kylian Mbappé n 8 | 86 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| J. Bellingham n 8 | 69.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Y. Diomande n 8 | 44.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Brahim Díaz n 8 | 61.4 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Marc Cucurella n 8 | 73.3 | 2.9 |
| A. Tchouaméni n 8 | 68.6 | 2.8 |
| D. Dumfries n 8 | 66.9 | 2.5 |
| Bernardo Silva n 8 | 37.6 | 2.4 |
| Eduardo Camavinga n 8 | 43.1 | 2.3 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Thibaut Courtois n 8 | 90 | 3.8 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind AS Roma v Real Madrid — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2018-11-27 AS Roma 0–2 Real Madrid
- 2018-09-19 Real Madrid 3–0 AS Roma
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win AS Roma v Real Madrid?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for AS Roma v Real Madrid is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.44 at Betano).
- What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Real Madrid?
- In their last 2 meetings, AS Roma won 0, Real Madrid won 2 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of AS Roma and Real Madrid?
- Recent form — AS Roma 2W 3D 0L; Real Madrid 4W 0D 1L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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