FC Porto v Napoli prediction

UEFA Champions League ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: FC Porto · Napoli

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for FC Porto v Napoli, UEFA Champions League on Wed, 04 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 66.8% of 578 landed (95% range 62.8–70.5%); it had given them 76.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

FC Porto host Napoli in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

Form and the table

Seven of FC Porto’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in six of FC Porto’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, FC Porto have six wins, no draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.25 points per game, scoring 1.38 and conceding 0.63.

Nine of Napoli’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Napoli’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Napoli have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 1.86 and conceding 1.29.

Napoli are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. FC Porto (34th) and Napoli (22nd) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Napoli the stronger side, 63 rating points above FC Porto (Napoli 1598, FC Porto 1536, after at least 51 rated matches each).

Team news

Predicted FC Porto XI (4-3-3): D. Costa, J. Kiwior, A. Baio, J. Bednarek, F. Moura, V. Froholdt, P. Rosario, G. Veiga, P. Aquino, A. Silva, B. Sainz — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Gabri Veiga (4.8 per match over 13 appearances, five goals and three assists) and William (4.1 per match over nine appearances, two goals and two assists) have been FC Porto’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for FC Porto (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Gabri Veiga averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 839 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. William averages 2.3 shots per 90 over 589 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last nine appearances.

Predicted Napoli XI (3-4-2-1): A. Meret, R. Marín, A. Rrahmani, G. Di Lorenzo, S. McTominay, K. De Bruyne, B. Gilmour, A. Zambo Anguissa, S. Lobotka, L. Spinazzola, R. Højlund — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Scott McTominay (4.7 per match over eight appearances, four goals) and Kevin De Bruyne (4.0 per match over 12 appearances, four goals and two assists) have been Napoli’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Napoli (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Scott McTominay averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 1051 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances. Kevin De Bruyne averages 3.1 key passes per 90 over 1644 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

  • Kick-off: · UEFA Champions League
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: FC Porto 3W 0D 2L · Napoli 2W 1D 2L

FC Porto v Napoli (UEFA Champions League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 2.13
Goals
against 1.25 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
5.13 / 5.38
Corners
against 3.38 / 3.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.13 / 6.63
Shots on target
against 4.5 / 3.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.5 / 1.13
Cards
against 3 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 28 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameFC Porto for / againstLineNapoli for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.25 against n 8
2.75our book
2.13 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
5.13 for · 3.38 against n 8
9.5standard
5.38 for · 3.75 against n 8
Shots
15.13 for · 13.25 against n 8
19.5standard
16.75 for · 14.5 against n 8
Shots on target
5.13 for · 4.5 against n 8
8.5standard
6.63 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.75 for · 13.63 against n 8
21.5standard
9 for · 9.75 against n 8
Cards shown
1.5 for · 3 against n 8
3.5standard
1.13 for · 1.88 against n 8

FC Porto

FC Porto Goalkeeper

FC Porto — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Diogo Costa12901080 min332.8 /9050.4 /9000 /90
FC Porto — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Porto before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Diogo Costa n 890
3.16/4

FC Porto Defensive

FC Porto — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Kiwior12901080 min121 /90100.8 /9030.3 /90504.2 /90121 /9010.1 /90
Alberto Baio1177842 min131.4 /9070.7 /9040.4 /90475 /90212.2 /9000 /90
J. Bednarek1085853 min80.8 /90212.2 /9070.7 /90495.2 /9090.9 /9000 /90
Z. Sanusi675447 min20.4 /9020.4 /9000 /90163.2 /9010.2 /9000 /90
Martim Fernandes662373 min102.4 /9041 /9000 /90204.8 /9030.7 /9000 /90
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FC Porto — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Porto before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Kiwior n 890
0.95/1
0.64/1
—
Diogo Costa n 890
00/0
00/0
—
Pepê Aquino n 887.4
1.26/2
1.77/5
—
P. Rosario n 882.1
1.86/4
1.87/4
—
Gabri Veiga n 859.4
1.56/2
1.96/4
—
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FC Porto — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Porto before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Kiwior n 890
16/2
Pepê Aquino n 887.4
1.76/4
P. Rosario n 882.1
1.26/2
Gabri Veiga n 859.4
2.15/3
André Silva n 863.9
0.41/1
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FC Porto Attacking

FC Porto — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Pepê Aquino12861028 min00 /9050.4 /90111 /9020.2 /90171.5 /9070.6 /90
André Silva1265775 min30.3 /9020.2 /90182.1 /9070.8 /9091 /9030.3 /90
Borja Sainz1134370 min30.7 /9000 /9092.2 /9071.7 /9061.5 /9020.5 /90
William965589 min20.3 /9020.3 /90152.3 /9081.2 /90101.5 /9050.8 /90
Samu436144 min10.6 /9000 /9021.3 /9010.6 /9021.3 /9010.6 /90
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FC Porto — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Porto before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Kiwior n 890
0.43/0
0.32/0
Diogo Costa n 890
00/0
00/0
Pepê Aquino n 887.4
0.85/1
0.32/0
P. Rosario n 882.1
15/2
0.32/0
Gabri Veiga n 859.4
2.78/3
0.84/0
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FC Porto — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Porto before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Kiwior n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
Diogo Costa n 890
00/0
00/0
Pepê Aquino n 887.4
00/0
0.43/0
P. Rosario n 882.1
00/0
0.11/0
Gabri Veiga n 859.4
0.42/0
0.21/0
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Napoli

Napoli Goalkeeper

Napoli — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
A. Meret884675 min222.9 /9060.8 /9000 /90
V. Milinković-Savić581405 min143.1 /9040.9 /9000 /90
Napoli — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Meret n 884.4
2.96/5
V. Milinković-Savić n 884.4
3.26/5

Napoli Defensive

Napoli — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Giovanni Di Lorenzo12891070 min191.6 /90100.8 /9020.2 /90484 /9070.6 /9030.3 /90
Rafa Marín1188963 min252.3 /90181.7 /9050.5 /90464.3 /90151.4 /9020.2 /90
Amir Rrahmani1186945 min181.7 /9080.8 /9080.8 /90686.5 /9090.9 /9010.1 /90
L. Spinazzola872576 min60.9 /9010.2 /9010.2 /90101.6 /9040.6 /9000 /90
M. Olivera583416 min132.8 /9051.1 /9000 /90194.1 /9081.7 /9000 /90
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Napoli — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 888.8
0.64/1
14/3
—
R. Højlund n 872.6
0.95/1
1.45/3
—
K. De Bruyne n 873.8
1.45/3
0.93/2
—
Rafa Marín n 887.8
15/2
0.43/0
—
Amir Rrahmani n 884.4
0.53/1
0.74/1
—
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Napoli — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 888.8
1.16/1
R. Højlund n 872.6
00/0
K. De Bruyne n 873.8
1.44/2
Rafa Marín n 887.8
2.68/6
Amir Rrahmani n 884.4
1.36/3
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Napoli Attacking

Napoli — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
R. Højlund1274887 min30.3 /9000 /90212.1 /9090.9 /9080.8 /9070.7 /90
M. Politano1163691 min30.4 /9040.5 /90111.4 /9091.2 /90162.1 /9050.7 /90
N. Lang959533 min10.2 /9010.2 /90162.7 /9081.4 /90101.7 /9071.2 /90
L. Lucca628166 min00 /9000 /9031.6 /9000 /9031.6 /9000 /90
Alisson Santos555274 min00 /9000 /9082.6 /9041.3 /9051.6 /9051.6 /90
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Napoli — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 888.8
0.63/2
0.43/0
R. Højlund n 872.6
2.57/6
0.95/1
K. De Bruyne n 873.8
1.26/2
0.63/1
Rafa Marín n 887.8
0.43/0
0.11/0
Amir Rrahmani n 884.4
0.94/2
0.31/1
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Napoli — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 888.8
00/0
0.11/0
R. Højlund n 872.6
0.21/0
00/0
K. De Bruyne n 873.8
0.52/1
0.21/0
Rafa Marín n 887.8
0.11/0
00/0
Amir Rrahmani n 884.4
0.11/0
00/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind FC Porto v Napoli — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
FC PortoWWLLW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
NapoliLLWDW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2.4 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
FC Porto#34 pos0 pts3 pl-4 GD
Napoli#22 pos3 pts3 pl-2 GD
Goals per game
FC Porto scored0.67
Napoli scored1.67
FC Porto conceded2
Napoli conceded2.33

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win FC Porto v Napoli?
TACTIX’s free model pick for FC Porto v Napoli is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of FC Porto and Napoli?
Recent form — FC Porto 3W 0D 2L; Napoli 2W 1D 2L.

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