Lille v Galatasaray prediction
Team pages: Lille · Galatasaray
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Lille vs Galatasaray, UEFA Champions League on Wed, 21 Oct 2026 17:45 BST.
The match
Lille host Galatasaray in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 21 October (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
Form and the table
Five of Lille’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in five of Lille’s last 15 results (33%). At home, Lille have two wins, four draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches — 1.25 points per game, scoring 1.13 and conceding 1.13.
11 of Galatasaray’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in eight of Galatasaray’s last 15 results (53%). Away from home, Galatasaray have three wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 7 away matches — 1.29 points per game, scoring 1.43 and conceding 2.00.
Lille (34th) and Galatasaray (35th) are level on points, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Galatasaray the stronger side, 2 rating points above Lille (Galatasaray 1684, Lille 1682, after at least 30 rated matches each).
Team news
Predicted Lille XI (4-4-2): B. Özer, A. Ribeiro, N. Ngoy, R. Perraud, T. Santos, B. André, N. Bentaleb, N. Mukau, M. Goffi, A. Ueda, D. Bakwa — derived from the last 2 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Tiago Santos (4.3 per match over seven appearances, two goals) and Alexsandro Ribeiro (3.7 per match over eight appearances, one goal) have been Lille’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Lille (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Tiago Santos averages 2.1 tackles per 90 over 562 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last seven appearances. Alexsandro Ribeiro averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 810 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last nine appearances.
Predicted Galatasaray XI (4-4-2): U. Çakır, D. Sánchez, E. Elmalı, I. Jakobs, R. Sallai, L. Torreira, Y. Akgün, A. Batrakov, G. Sara, V. Osimhen, B. Yılmaz — derived from the last 2 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Victor Osimhen (6.9 per match over seven appearances, six goals and three assists) and Gabriel Sara (4.6 per match over 10 appearances, two goals and two assists) have been Galatasaray’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Galatasaray (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Victor Osimhen averages 6.3 shots per 90 over 499 minutes, with a shot in six of the last seven appearances. Gabriel Sara averages 3.7 key passes per 90 over 735 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Champions League · Stade Pierre-Mauroy
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Recent form: Lille 2W 1D 2L · Galatasaray 3W 0D 2L
TACTIX runs Lille v Galatasaray (UEFA Champions League) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 17 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Lille for / against | Line | Galatasaray for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.25 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 3our book | 1.63 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 3.13 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.75 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 10.25 for · 15.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 18.13 for · 12.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 6.25 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 11 for · 14.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 12 for · 12.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.25 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.38 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5 |
Lille
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Bakwa n 8 | 54.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | — |
| B. André n 8 | 68.1 | 2 | 1.8 | — |
| C. Verdonk n 8 | 22.5 | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| A. Ueda n 8 | 56.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | — |
| G. Perrin n 8 | 29.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ueda n 8 | 56.6 | 3 | 2.2 |
| M. Kjærgaard n 8 | 40.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| E. Mbappé n 8 | 56.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Tiago Santos n 8 | 71.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Félix Correia n 8 | 65.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ueda n 8 | 56.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| O. Giroud n 8 | 45.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| D. Bakwa n 8 | 54.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| M. Kjærgaard n 8 | 40.6 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Félix Correia n 8 | 65.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| C. Verdonk n 8 | 22.5 | 4.5 |
| B. André n 8 | 68.1 | 2.8 |
| N. Mukau n 8 | 53.4 | 2.7 |
| G. Perrin n 8 | 29.1 | 2.7 |
| R. Perraud n 8 | 76 | 2.2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando Gill n 8 | 91.8 | 4 |
| B. Özer n 8 | 90 | 3.2 |
Galatasaray
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Gül n 8 | 31.4 | 4.3 | 0.7 | — |
| R. Sallai n 8 | 76.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | — |
| Renato Nhaga n 8 | 27 | 1.7 | 5 | — |
| M. Lemina n 8 | 54.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | — |
| W. Singo n 8 | 50.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| V. Osimhen n 8 | 73.5 | 6.7 | 3.4 |
| D. Gül n 8 | 31.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| Gabriel Sara n 8 | 69.4 | 2.8 | 1 |
| L. Sané n 8 | 45.9 | 2 | 0.2 |
| R. Sallai n 8 | 76.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| V. Osimhen n 8 | 73.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| A. Batrakov n 8 | 56.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| K. Karataş n 8 | 61.1 | 0 | 0.4 |
| M. Lemina n 8 | 54.9 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Renato Nhaga n 8 | 27 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| E. Elmalı n 8 | 60.6 | 2.6 |
| M. Lemina n 8 | 54.9 | 2.3 |
| L. Torreira n 8 | 77.1 | 2.2 |
| L. Ugochukwu n 8 | 30.6 | 2.2 |
| K. Karataş n 8 | 61.1 | 2 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Lille v Galatasaray — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Lille vs Galatasaray?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Lille v Galatasaray is Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the recent form of Lille and Galatasaray?
- Recent form — Lille 2W 1D 2L; Galatasaray 3W 0D 2L.
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