Napoli v Bodo/Glimt prediction

UEFA Champions League · · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Napoli · Bodo/Glimt

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt, UEFA Champions League on Tue, 20 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 645 landed (95% range 61.8–69.1%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Napoli host Bodo/Glimt in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 20 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Bodo/Glimt have scored in five consecutive matches. 13 of Bodo/Glimt’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (87%).

Form and the table

Seven of Napoli’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in five of Napoli’s last 15 results (33%). At home, Napoli have four wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 8 home matches — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.00.

Bodo/Glimt have won their last three matches. Both teams scored in nine of Bodo/Glimt’s last 15 results (60%). Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have five wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 8 away matches — 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.63.

Napoli (32nd) and Bodo/Glimt (24th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Bodo/Glimt the stronger side, 439 rating points above Napoli (Bodo/Glimt 1925, Napoli 1485, after at least 36 rated matches each).

Team news

By TACTIX Impact, Amir Rrahmani (4.0 per match over nine appearances, one goal and one assist) and Kevin De Bruyne (3.6 per match over nine appearances, three goals and one assist) have been Napoli’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Napoli (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Amir Rrahmani averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 810 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last nine appearances. Kevin De Bruyne averages 3.0 key passes per 90 over 1448 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

By TACTIX Impact, Kasper Høgh (5.1 per match over 12 appearances, seven goals and four assists) and Fredrik Sjøvold (4.6 per match over 28 appearances, four goals and three assists) have been Bodo/Glimt’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bodo/Glimt (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Kasper Høgh averages 2.8 shots per 90 over 1713 minutes, with a shot in five of the last 10 appearances. Fredrik Sjøvold averages 2.4 tackles per 90 over 2450 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · UEFA Champions League · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Napoli 2W 1D 2L · Bodo/Glimt 4W 0D 1L

TACTIX runs Napoli v Bodo/Glimt (UEFA Champions League) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 17 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.13 / 2
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
5.5 / 6.25
Corners
against 4.38 / 3.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.13 / 5.25
Shots on target
against 4.63 / 4.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.25 / 0.88
Cards
against 1.25 / 1.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameNapoli for / againstLineBodo/Glimt for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 1.38 against n 8
3.25our book
2 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
5.5 for · 4.38 against n 8
9.5standard
6.25 for · 3.38 against n 8
Shots
15 for · 17.5 against n 8
19.5standard
18 for · 10.13 against n 8
Shots on target
5.13 for · 4.63 against n 8
8.5standard
5.25 for · 4.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.13 for · 8.88 against n 8
21.5standard
8.75 for · 9.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8
3.5standard
0.88 for · 1.63 against n 8
Napoli
Napoli — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Lucca n 823.6
3.87/1
0.51/0
—
Rafa Marín n 886.6
1.76/4
0.65/0
—
K. De Bruyne n 874.6
1.76/4
0.52/1
—
A. Vergara n 841.1
1.64/1
1.43/2
—
B. Badiashile n 867
1.54/2
0.32/0
—
Napoli — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Alisson Santos n 856.8
2.87/3
1.44/2
K. De Bruyne n 874.6
2.47/6
1.24/3
S. McTominay n 874.4
2.46/4
0.94/1
N. Lang n 848.5
2.35/3
0.71/1
R. Højlund n 873.3
26/5
1.25/2
Napoli — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
K. De Bruyne n 874.6
0.62/2
0.21/0
A. Vergara n 841.1
0.31/0
0.31/0
R. Højlund n 873.3
0.53/0
00/0
Billy Gilmour n 870.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
C. Favasuli n 857.4
00/0
0.42/0
Napoli — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Vergara n 841.1
5.26/5
C. Favasuli n 857.4
3.97/5
Rafa Marín n 886.6
2.28/6
M. Olivera n 855.1
2.25/4
B. Badiashile n 867
1.75/3
Napoli — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
V. Milinković-Savić n 884.4
3.66/5
A. Meret n 883.1
37/4
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Andreas Helmersen n 867.8
2.26/4
0.74/0
—
Isak Dybvik Määttä n 830.9
1.52/1
1.11/1
—
U. Saltnes n 822
1.53/0
23/1
—
Haitam Aleesami n 862.8
1.45/2
0.42/0
—
Odin Luras Bjørtuft n 884.8
1.24/3
0.74/1
—
Bodo/Glimt — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
O. Brynhildsen n 844.5
46/4
1.83/2
U. Saltnes n 822
3.64/1
00/0
Andreas Helmersen n 867.8
3.37/6
1.75/3
Jens Hauge n 857.8
3.37/5
1.66/2
Sondre Fet n 873.4
1.88/4
00/0
Bodo/Glimt — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Andreas Helmersen n 867.8
14/2
00/0
Jens Hauge n 857.8
0.42/0
0.42/0
Ole Didrik Blomberg n 869.9
0.32/0
0.32/0
Fredrik André Bjørkan n 871.8
0.31/1
0.21/0
Haitam Aleesami n 862.8
0.42/0
00/0
Bodo/Glimt — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Sondre Auklend n 882.4
48/7
J. Kitolano n 830.5
2.64/3
Patrick Berg n 883.4
2.37/3
Sondre Fet n 873.4
2.36/5
Jostein Gundersen n 870.4
1.94/4
Bodo/Glimt — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Nikita Haikin n 884.4
3.16/4
Julian Lund n 884.4
1.64/1

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Napoli v Bodo/Glimt — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
NapoliWDWLL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1 conceded per game
Bodo/GlimtWLWWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2 scored / 1 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
Napoli#32 pos0 pts2 pl-3 GD
Bodo/Glimt#24 pos3 pts2 pl-4 GD
Goals per game
Napoli scored0.5
Bodo/Glimt scored0.5
Napoli conceded2
Bodo/Glimt conceded2.5

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Napoli v Bodo/Glimt is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Napoli and Bodo/Glimt?
Recent form — Napoli 2W 1D 2L; Bodo/Glimt 4W 0D 1L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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