Sporting CP v LASK prediction

UEFA Champions League ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Sporting CP vs LASK, UEFA Champions League on Wed, 21 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 190 landed (95% range 70.9–82.7%); it had given them 75.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Sporting CP host LASK in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 21 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Sporting CP to win, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last 10 matches. Sporting CP have scored in 15 consecutive matches — every result checked.

LASK are winless in their last four matches.

Form and the table

12 of Sporting CP’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (80%). Both teams scored in 11 of Sporting CP’s last 15 results (73%). At home, Sporting CP have six wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 9 home matches — 2.22 points per game, scoring 2.67 and conceding 1.22.

12 of LASK’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (80%). Both teams scored in eight of LASK’s last 15 results (53%). Away from home, LASK have four wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.63 points per game, scoring 2.13 and conceding 1.38.

Sporting CP (second) and LASK (27th) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Sporting CP the stronger side, 537 rating points above LASK (Sporting CP 2086, LASK 1550, after at least seven rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 1 October 2020, finished Sporting CP 1–4 LASK.

Team news

By TACTIX Impact, L. Suárez (5.2 per match over 10 appearances, nine goals and one assist) and Sergi Altimira (5.0 per match over 10 appearances, one goal) have been Sporting CP’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Sporting CP (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), L. Suárez averages 2.0 shots per 90 over 1262 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. Sergi Altimira averages 0.2 key passes per 90 over 897 minutes, with a key pass in two of the last 10 appearances.

By TACTIX Impact, A. Andrade (5.3 per match over 11 appearances, two goals and one assist) and Samuel Adeniran (4.8 per match over seven appearances, six goals and one assist) have been LASK’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for LASK (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), A. Andrade averages 2.0 tackles per 90 over 1919 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances. Samuel Adeniran averages 4.3 shots per 90 over 462 minutes, with a shot in five of the last seven appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · UEFA Champions League
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 3): Sporting CP 1 · draws 0 · LASK 2 · 3.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Sporting CP 3W 2D 0L · LASK 1W 1D 3L

TACTIX runs Sporting CP vs LASK (UEFA Champions League) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 14 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.5 / 1.88
Goals
against 0.75 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4 / 6.88
Corners
against 3.38 / 3.5 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 5.75
Shots on target
against 3.13 / 4.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2 / 1.75
Cards
against 2.38 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 13 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 13 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameSporting CP for / againstLineLASK for / against
Goals scored
2.5 for · 0.75 against n 8
2.5standard
1.88 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
4 for · 3.38 against n 8
9.5standard
6.88 for · 3.5 against n 8
Shots
12.75 for · 10.63 against n 8
19.5standard
21.13 for · 11.75 against n 8
Shots on target
5.38 for · 3.13 against n 8
8.5standard
5.75 for · 4.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.5 for · 11.5 against n 8
21.5standard
11.13 for · 10.88 against n 8
Cards shown
2 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
1.75 for · 2 against n 8
Sporting CP
Sporting CP — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Iván Fresneda n 880.1
2.18/5
0.85/1
—
F. Ioannidis n 838.9
1.76/0
3.56/3
—
Sergi Altimira n 889.6
1.57/3
16/2
—
G. Vagiannidis n 865.8
1.55/3
1.56/2
—
N. Irankunda n 851.6
1.54/1
0.93/1
—
Sporting CP — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Suárez n 861.1
2.67/3
1.87/3
Pedro Lima n 855.9
2.27/3
1.44/2
J. Derry n 717.3
2.22/1
1.52/0
R. Zalazar n 843.9
2.15/2
1.34/1
M. Araújo n 882.4
1.96/3
0.84/2
Sporting CP — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
L. Suárez n 861.1
1.16/0
00/0
Flávio Gonçalves n 856.1
0.63/0
0.21/0
R. Zalazar n 843.9
0.83/0
00/0
M. Araújo n 882.4
0.42/1
0.32/0
Rafael Ferreira Nel n 815.5
0.71/0
00/0
Sporting CP — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Derry n 717.3
3.74/1
Eduardo Quaresma n 874
3.65/5
Sergi Altimira n 889.6
2.68/6
Pedro Lima n 855.9
2.67/4
Flávio Gonçalves n 856.1
2.45/4
Sporting CP — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Kaique n 890
3.66/5
Rui Silva n 890
2.16/3
LASK
LASK — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Kane n 48
5.62/0
5.62/0
—
M. Bogarde n 879.9
2.16/4
1.55/3
—
A. Schopf n 833.1
1.73/2
23/1
—
Alemão n 885.1
1.66/4
0.54/0
—
R. Ljubičić n 870.6
1.46/2
1.87/2
—
LASK — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Kane n 48
5.62/0
5.62/0
S. Adeniran n 869
3.86/4
25/4
S. Kalajdzic n 847.8
2.47/1
1.23/1
M. Usor n 872.3
2.37/5
0.95/1
A. Andrade n 893.8
2.27/6
0.53/1
LASK — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
F. Flecker n 827.1
0.82/0
0.82/0
S. Adeniran n 869
1.14/3
0.21/0
C. Lang n 861
0.73/1
0.21/0
K. Daněk n 850.8
0.21/0
0.42/0
S. Horvath n 875.8
0.11/0
0.43/0
LASK — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Kane n 48
5.62/0
M. Bogarde n 879.9
2.77/6
G. Bello n 882.3
2.17/4
Alemão n 885.1
1.97/6
F. Flecker n 827.1
1.74/0
LASK — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Lukas Jungwirth n 893.8
2.36/3

The day’s free picks, by email

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Sporting CP v LASK — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Sporting CPWDDWW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 2.2 scored / 1 conceded per game
LASKWLLDL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.4 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 3
Sporting CP 1 · 0 draws · LASK 2 · 3.67 goals/game
  • 2020-10-01 Sporting CP 1–4 LASK
  • 2019-12-12 LASK 3–0 Sporting CP
  • 2019-10-03 Sporting CP 2–1 LASK
League standing · 2026/27
Sporting CP#2 pos6 pts2 pl+4 GD
LASK#27 pos0 pts1 pl-1 GD
Goals per game
Sporting CP scored2.5
LASK scored0
Sporting CP conceded0.5
LASK conceded1

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Sporting CP vs LASK?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Sporting CP vs LASK is Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and LASK?
In their last 3 meetings, Sporting CP won 1, LASK won 2 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Sporting CP and LASK?
Recent form — Sporting CP 3W 2D 0L; LASK 1W 1D 3L.

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