VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid prediction
Team pages: VfB Stuttgart · Atletico Madrid
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid, UEFA Champions League on Tue, 20 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.
The match
VfB Stuttgart host Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 20 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
Atletico Madrid have scored in seven consecutive matches. Atletico Madrid have won their last six matches.
Form and the table
11 of VfB Stuttgart’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in nine of VfB Stuttgart’s last 15 results (60%). At home, VfB Stuttgart have four wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 6 home matches — 2.17 points per game, scoring 2.17 and conceding 1.00.
10 of Atletico Madrid’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in seven of Atletico Madrid’s last 15 results (47%). Away from home, Atletico Madrid have five wins, no draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.88 points per game, scoring 1.63 and conceding 1.63.
VfB Stuttgart (fourth) and Atletico Madrid (15th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Atletico Madrid the stronger side, 173 rating points above VfB Stuttgart (Atletico Madrid 1977, VfB Stuttgart 1804, after at least 10 rated matches each).
Team news
Predicted VfB Stuttgart XI (4-4-2): F. Bredlow, J. Chabot, F. Jeltsch, J. Vagnoman, R. Hendriks, G. Prömel, D. Undav, A. Stiller, B. El Khannouss, D. Pejčinović, C. Führich — derived from the last 2 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Maximilian Mittelstädt (5.7 per match over seven appearances, one goal and one assist) and Julian Chabot (4.5 per match over nine appearances, one goal) have been VfB Stuttgart’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for VfB Stuttgart (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Maximilian Mittelstädt averages 2.3 tackles per 90 over 704 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last eight appearances. Julian Chabot averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 776 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last nine appearances.
Predicted Atletico Madrid XI (4-4-2): J. Oblak, D. Hancko, C. Romero, Á. Grimaldo, M. Pubill, G. Simeone, A. Baena, P. Barrios, J. Cardoso, J. Alvarez, L. Kang-In — derived from the last 2 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Álex Grimaldo (5.0 per match over 10 appearances, three goals and one assist) and Alex Baena (4.2 per match over 11 appearances, five goals and three assists) have been Atletico Madrid’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atletico Madrid (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Álex Grimaldo averages 2.1 tackles per 90 over 925 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Alex Baena averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 1420 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Champions League · MHPArena
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Recent form: VfB Stuttgart 2W 0D 3L · Atletico Madrid 5W 0D 0L
VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid (UEFA Champions League): TACTIX’s calibrated model has priced this fixture across 246 markets — the full record, losers included, is published live (as of 17 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | VfB Stuttgart for / against | Line | Atletico Madrid for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.25our book | 1.88 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 6.5 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.38 for · 3.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 17 for · 16.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 16.63 for · 8.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5.75 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 6.5 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 10.88 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 10.63 for · 10.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.13 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.88 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Spalt n 3 | 21.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | — |
| José María Andrés Baixauli n 8 | 60.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | — |
| D. Undav n 8 | 73.5 | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| A. Karazor n 8 | 69.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | — |
| J. Chabot n 8 | 85.8 | 1.4 | 1 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Tomás n 8 | 36.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| D. Undav n 8 | 73.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| D. Pejčinović n 8 | 49.3 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| L. Sauer n 8 | 26.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| E. Demirović n 8 | 64 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Tomás n 8 | 36.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| L. Sauer n 8 | 26.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| José María Andrés Baixauli n 8 | 60.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| A. Stiller n 8 | 81.5 | 0 | 0.6 |
| N. Nartey n 8 | 33.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Y. Spalt n 3 | 21.3 | 4.2 |
| L. Stergiou n 8 | 27.6 | 3.3 |
| A. Karazor n 8 | 69.5 | 2.8 |
| B. El Khannouss n 8 | 54.4 | 2.7 |
| Tiago Tomás n 8 | 36.4 | 2.5 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| D. Seimen n 8 | 93.8 | 3.4 |
| F. Bredlow n 8 | 90 | 3.2 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnau Ortiz n 8 | 22.6 | 3 | 2 | — |
| Alex Baena n 8 | 50.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | — |
| Rodrigo Mendoza n 8 | 45.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | — |
| Alexander Sørloth n 8 | 61.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | — |
| Lee Kang-In n 8 | 70 | 1.6 | 0.8 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julián Alvarez n 8 | 55.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| Alex Baena n 8 | 50.5 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| Jonathan David n 8 | 60.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Dávid Hancko n 8 | 69.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Álex Grimaldo n 8 | 76.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Baena n 8 | 50.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Jonathan David n 8 | 60.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Julián Alvarez n 8 | 55.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Álex Grimaldo n 8 | 76.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Giuliano Simeone n 8 | 71.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Koke n 8 | 53.6 | 2.9 |
| Marcos Llorente n 8 | 79.4 | 2.6 |
| Álex Grimaldo n 8 | 76.3 | 1.8 |
| Dávid Hancko n 8 | 69.8 | 1.8 |
| Giuliano Simeone n 8 | 71.1 | 1.7 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Jan Oblak n 8 | 90 | 3.1 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid is Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the recent form of VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid?
- Recent form — VfB Stuttgart 2W 0D 3L; Atletico Madrid 5W 0D 0L.
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