FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · · AIL Arena

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: FC Lugano · FK Crvena Zvezda

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda, UEFA Europa Conference League on Thu, 15 Oct 2026 17:45 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.33 at Bet365
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.2% of 4285 landed (95% range 75.9–78.4%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

FC Lugano host FK Crvena Zvezda in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is FC Lugano or FK Crvena Zvezda (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 15 matches — every result checked. FC Lugano have scored in 15 consecutive matches — every result checked. 12 of FC Lugano’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (80%).

Form and the table

Both teams scored in 10 of FC Lugano’s last 15 results (67%). At home, FC Lugano have seven wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 8 home matches — 2.75 points per game, scoring 2.75 and conceding 0.63.

Five of FK Crvena Zvezda’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in three of FK Crvena Zvezda’s last 15 results (20%). Away from home, FK Crvena Zvezda have four wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.13 and conceding 1.25.

TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have FC Lugano the stronger side, 235 rating points above FK Crvena Zvezda (FC Lugano 1814, FK Crvena Zvezda 1579, after at least 24 rated matches each).

Team news

By TACTIX Impact, Kevin Behrens (5.4 per match over nine appearances, eight goals and two assists) and Hannes Delcroix (4.1 per match over 11 appearances, three goals and one assist) have been FC Lugano’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for FC Lugano (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Kevin Behrens averages 3.5 shots per 90 over 595 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last nine appearances. Hannes Delcroix averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 1411 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · UEFA Europa Conference League · AIL Arena
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: FC Lugano 4W 1D 0L · FK Crvena Zvezda 2W 0D 3L

As of 13 October 2026, TACTIX’s model — calibration published live, losing picks included — covers FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda across 246 markets; the key numbers are on this page. See the live track record →

Key stats

2.63 / 1.75
Goals
against 0.75 / 1.13 · 5 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
5.88 / 4.4
Corners
against 4.75 / 4.8 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 5 matches
5.13 / 3.6
Shots on target
against 4.38 / 6.2 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 5 matches
3.63 / 3.4
Cards
against 1.88 / 1.8 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 5 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameFC Lugano for / againstLineFK Crvena Zvezda for / against
Goals scored
2.63 for · 0.75 against n 8
2.75our book
1.75 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
5.88 for · 4.75 against n 8
9.5standard
4.4 for · 4.8 against n 5
Shots
16.13 for · 13.75 against n 8
19.5standard
4.6 for · 4.6 against n 5
Shots on target
5.13 for · 4.38 against n 8
8.5standard
3.6 for · 6.2 against n 5
Fouls committed
12.5 for · 11.5 against n 8
21.5standard
12.6 for · 11.8 against n 5
Cards shown
3.63 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
3.4 for · 1.8 against n 5
FC Lugano
FC Lugano — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Ajeti n 829.9
34/3
4.54/3
—
M. Zanotti n 855.3
2.45/4
1.65/3
—
D. Moncada n 854.1
2.38/2
2.15/3
—
R. Steffen n 867.9
2.26/5
27/4
—
Joao Carbone n 723.4
2.23/1
0.51/0
—
FC Lugano — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Beckham Castro n 823.6
4.37/2
2.96/0
K. Behrens n 864.4
3.16/3
2.15/3
D. Moncada n 854.1
2.98/3
0.84/0
Daniel Dos Santos n 874
2.67/5
0.94/1
E. Pihlstrom n 847.1
2.46/3
13/1
FC Lugano — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Beckham Castro n 823.6
12/0
1.43/0
K. Behrens n 864.4
1.45/2
0.21/0
D. Moncada n 854.1
0.63/0
0.21/0
A. Ajeti n 829.9
0.82/0
00/0
A. Kendouci n 826
0.41/0
0.41/0
FC Lugano — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Zanotti n 855.3
3.16/3
A. Kendouci n 826
34/2
E. Pihlstrom n 847.1
2.94/3
Martim Marques n 830.9
2.96/2
Daniel Dos Santos n 874
2.48/5
FC Lugano — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
D. von Ballmoos n 884.4
3.26/5
F. Gebhardt n 684.3
2.74/3
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Avdić n 424.3
4.63/2
1.91/1
—
M. Arnautović n 844.4
2.35/3
0.82/1
—
V. Lučić n 856.4
2.26/2
14/1
—
A. Katai n 829.1
1.94/1
1.23/0
—
T. Elšnik n 871.5
1.66/3
0.94/1
—
FK Crvena Zvezda — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Enem n 436.3
2.54/0
1.22/0
A. Katai n 829.1
1.52/1
1.22/1
V. Lučić n 856.4
1.45/2
00/0
Bruno Duarte n 863.1
1.25/2
0.42/0
M. Arnautović n 844.4
13/1
13/1
FK Crvena Zvezda — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Bruno Duarte n 863.1
0.42/0
0.42/0
J. Enem n 436.3
0.61/0
00/0
M. Arnautović n 844.4
0.52/0
00/0
A. Katai n 829.1
0.41/0
00/0
T. Elšnik n 871.5
00/0
0.32/0
FK Crvena Zvezda — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Avdić n 424.3
5.63/2
R. Krunić n 892.6
2.87/7
N. Stanković n 858
2.77/4
Rodrigão n 883.1
2.48/4
Miloš Veljković n 872.9
1.95/4
FK Crvena Zvezda — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Matheus n 893.8
25/2

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
FC LuganoWDWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 3.4 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
FK Crvena ZvezdaWLLWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
FC Lugano#24 pos0 pts0 pl0 GD
FK Crvena Zvezda#25 pos0 pts0 pl0 GD

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda?
TACTIX’s free model pick for FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda is Home or Away (best price 1.33 at Bet365).
What is the recent form of FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda?
Recent form — FC Lugano 4W 1D 0L; FK Crvena Zvezda 2W 0D 3L.

Today’s boards

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