Rosenborg v FSV Mainz 05 result

Full-time · Rosenborg 2–1 FSV Mainz 05

UEFA Europa Conference League · Thu, 21 Aug 2025 17:00 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Rosenborg 2–1 FSV Mainz 05 — Rosenborg won this UEFA Europa Conference League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4357 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Rosenborg beat FSV Mainz 05 2–1 in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 21 August. FSV Mainz 05 have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — FSV Mainz 05: Nadiem Amiri (26’); Rosenborg: Dino Islamović (43’ pen) and O. Saeter (90’, assisted by Ole Selnaes).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with O. Saeter’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Rosenborg 0.00, FSV Mainz 05 0.00, from 13 shots to 13 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Oleksiy Derevinskyi, Ukraine showed two yellow cards — against 3.2 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — FSV Mainz 05: Stefan Bell (34’) and Dominik Kohr (36’).

What it changes

Rosenborg are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Nadiem Amiri (FSV Mainz 05) 8.7, Ole Selnaes (Rosenborg) 7.4 and J. Reitan-Sunde (Rosenborg) 6.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Rosenborg or FSV Mainz 05 (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.3% of the time in the last 90 days (3366 of 4357).

Next up

Rosenborg next travel to Ham-Kam on 24 October 2026.

FSV Mainz 05 next host Werder Bremen on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Rosenborg: Ham-Kam v Rosenborg, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for FSV Mainz 05: FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Rosenborg 2–1 FSV Mainz 05 · UEFA Europa Conference League
Referee: Oleksiy Derevinskyi, Ukraine
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Rosenborg 3W 1D 1L · FSV Mainz 05 2W 2D 1L

Rosenborg 2–1 FSV Mainz 05 (UEFA Europa Conference League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.13 / 1.38

Goals

against 0.88 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.25 / 6

Corners

against 5 / 3.75 · 1 of the last 2 over 9.5

over 4 matches

4 / 4.63

Shots on target

against 3.5 / 4.88 · 0 of the last 2 over 8.5

over 4 matches

2 / 1.88

Cards

against 2.67 / 3 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 6 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Rosenborg for / against	Line	FSV Mainz 05 for / against
Goals scored	2.13 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.25 for · 5 against n 4 Last 5	9.5standard	6 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	9.5 for · 11.75 against n 4 Last 5	19.5standard	14.88 for · 11.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4 for · 3.5 against n 4 Last 5	8.5standard	4.63 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.75 for · 15.5 against n 4 Last 5	21.5standard	12.63 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 2.67 against n 6 Last 5	3.5standard	1.88 for · 3 against n 8 Last 5

Rosenborg

Rosenborg — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
H. Sletsjoe n 6	35.8	3.3 5/2	2.1 4/1	—
Dino Islamović n 8	80.1	1.8 7/4	1.5 5/4	B. Hollerbach
Noah Jean Holm n 8	51.4	1.8 4/3	2 7/2	—
Simen Nordli n 8	78.3	1.3 5/3	2.3 6/4	—
Santeri Väänänen n 8	67.8	1.2 5/2	0.7 4/0	—

Rosenborg — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Dino Islamović n 8	80.1	2.7 7/5	2.1 7/5
O. Sæter n 8	30.1	2.2 4/2	1.1 2/1
Noah Jean Holm n 8	51.4	1.3 4/2	0.4 2/0
Adrian Nilsen Pereira n 8	77	0.9 3/2	0.4 2/1
Emil Konradsen Ceide n 8	80.3	0.8 3/2	0.7 3/1

Rosenborg — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Dino Islamović n 8	80.1	1.1 5/1	0 0/0
Emil Konradsen Ceide n 8	80.3	0.1 1/0	0.4 3/0
Simen Nordli n 8	78.3	0.1 1/0	0.3 1/1
O. Sæter n 8	30.1	0.4 1/0	0 0/0
Ole Selnaes n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0

Rosenborg — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
H. Sletsjoe n 6	35.8	3.3 4/3
Santeri Väänänen n 8	67.8	3.2 6/6
Aslak Witry n 8	79.6	2.5 8/5
Ole Selnaes n 8	90	2.4 7/6
Adrian Nilsen Pereira n 8	77	1.6 7/3

Rosenborg — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
S. Tangvik n 8	90	2.9 5/5

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
N. Veratschnig n 8	36.9	2.4 6/1	1.8 3/3	—
N. Weiper n 8	29.3	2.3 3/2	0 0/0	—
B. Hollerbach n 8	76	2.2 8/4	1 4/2	Dino Islamović
A. Sieb n 8	22.5	2 2/2	2 3/1	—
M. Jenz n 8	90	1.9 8/5	0.1 1/0	—

FSV Mainz 05 — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Burkardt n 8	84.8	2.9 8/6	1.1 5/2
N. Weiper n 8	29.3	2.7 4/1	1.5 4/0
A. Sieb n 8	22.5	2.5 4/1	0.5 1/0
B. Hollerbach n 8	76	1.9 7/3	1 5/1
N. Amiri n 8	88.3	1.7 7/5	0.8 6/0

FSV Mainz 05 — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Weiper n 8	29.3	0.4 1/0	0.8 2/0
P. Nebel n 8	87.5	0.4 3/0	0.3 2/0
N. Amiri n 8	88.3	0.3 2/0	0.3 2/0
J. Burkardt n 8	84.8	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
Lee Jae-Sung n 8	72.6	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0

FSV Mainz 05 — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
L. Maloney n 8	23.9	3.3 4/2
D. Kohr n 8	65.1	2.8 5/5
M. Jenz n 8	90	2.4 4/4
N. Amiri n 8	88.3	2.3 7/7
P. Mwene n 8	68.3	2.3 5/5

FSV Mainz 05 — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
R. Zentner n 8	90	3.9 8/6

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Rosenborg		FSV Mainz 05
40%	Possession	60%
13	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	4
3	Shots off target	6
2	Blocked shots	3
11	Shots inside the box	7
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
7	Fouls	10
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	6
359	Passes	536
79%	Pass accuracy	86%

Rosenborg player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
S. Tangvik	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.5
Aslak Witry	90	0	0	3	2	0	1	6.6
Mikkel Konradsen Ceide	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	6.6
Tomáš Nemčík	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
Santeri Väänänen	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	7.9
Ole Selnaes	90	0	1	0	0	1	4	8.5
Dino Islamović	90	1	0	2	2	1	1	6.3
Simen Nordli	89	0	0	2	2	0	1	5.9
Emil Konradsen Ceide	89	0	0	1	0	3	2	6.7
Adrian Nilsen Pereira	86	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.2
J. Reitan-Sunde	86	0	0	1	1	0	2	7.5
Ulrik Jenssen sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.9
O. Sæter sub	9	1	0	2	1	0	0	7.2
Iver Fossum sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	–
Noah Jean Holm sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	–

FSV Mainz 05 player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
R. Zentner	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.2
D. da Costa	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
D. Kohr	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.3
A. Caci	90	0	0	1	0	3	4	0	7.2
K. Sano	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.5
N. Amiri	90	1	0	4	1	2	4	0	8.9
P. Mwene	90	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	6.6
P. Nebel	90	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	6
S. Bell	82	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	7
Lee Jae-Sung	82	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.3
B. Hollerbach	63	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.7
A. Hanche-Olsen sub	50	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
A. Sieb sub	28	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	6.2
M. Leitsch sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
A. Nordin sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Rosenborg v FSV Mainz 05 — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

RosenborgWWLDW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1 conceded per game

FSV Mainz 05LDWDW

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

League standing · 2025/26

Last recorded position — not updated during the season.

RosenborgNot in this league table

FSV Mainz 05#7 pos13 pts6 pl+4 GD

Goals per game

Rosenborg scored1.6

FSV Mainz 05 scored1.17

Rosenborg conceded1

FSV Mainz 05 conceded0.5

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Rosenborg v FSV Mainz 05?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Rosenborg v FSV Mainz 05 was Home or Away.
What is the recent form of Rosenborg and FSV Mainz 05?: Recent form — Rosenborg 3W 1D 1L; FSV Mainz 05 2W 2D 1L.

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