Benfica v Lech Poznan prediction

UEFA Europa League · Thu, 05 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT

Updated 1 Nov 2026, 03:18 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Benfica v Lech Poznan, UEFA Europa League on Thu, 05 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT.

Free pick

Home win

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 78.3% of 263 landed (95% range 73–82.9%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Benfica host Lech Poznan in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Benfica to win, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

12 of Benfica’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%).

Benfica have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions. Benfica have won their last four matches in all competitions. Lech Poznan are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Both teams scored in 10 of Benfica’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Benfica have five wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 2.67 points per game, scoring 2.67 and conceding 1.00.

13 of Lech Poznan’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (87%). Both teams scored in 10 of Lech Poznan’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Lech Poznan have four wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.86 points per game, scoring 2.43 and conceding 1.71.

Benfica (first) and Lech Poznan (32nd) are eight points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Benfica the stronger side, 493 rating points above Lech Poznan (Benfica 2007, Lech Poznan 1514, after at least 31 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 3 December 2020, finished Benfica 4–0 Lech Poznan.

Team news

Predicted Benfica XI (4-2-3-1): S. Soares, T. Araújo, A. Bah, S. Dahl, C. Lenglet, J. Palhinha, F. Aursnes, G. Prestianni, Rafa, H. Sudakov, V. Pavlidis — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, G. Prestianni (8.1 per match over 12 appearances, seven goals and six assists) and Vangelis Pavlidis (6.7 per match over 12 appearances, 11 goals and three assists) have been Benfica’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Benfica (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), G. Prestianni averages 3.2 key passes per 90 over 983 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Vangelis Pavlidis averages 2.9 shots per 90 over 1277 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Lech Poznan XI (4-2-3-1): M. Lis, M. Gurgul, J. Pereira, M. Skrzypczak, T. Yegbe, R. Murawski, A. Kozubal, P. Wålemark, P. Rodríguez, L. Bengtsson, Y. Agnero — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Pablo Rodríguez (5.7 per match over 17 appearances, six goals and seven assists) and P. Wålemark (4.6 per match over 17 appearances, eight goals and three assists) have been Lech Poznan’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Lech Poznan (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Pablo Rodríguez averages 2.6 key passes per 90 over 1234 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. P. Wålemark averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 1266 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · UEFA Europa League
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 2): Benfica 2 · draws 0 · Lech Poznan 0 · 5 goals/game
Recent form: Benfica 4W 0D 1L · Lech Poznan 3W 1D 1L

Benfica v Lech Poznan (UEFA Europa League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 1 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.75 / 2.63

Goals

against 0.88 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.75

over 8 matches

6.5 / 5.38

Corners

against 4.25 / 5.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.75 / 6

Shots on target

against 4 / 6.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

3.75 / 1.38

Cards

against 2.75 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 31 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Benfica for / against	Line	Lech Poznan for / against
Goals scored	2.75 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.75our book	2.63 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.5 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.38 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	18.63 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	16 for · 16.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.75 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	6 for · 6.63 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.88 for · 15.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	9.63 for · 12.38 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	3.75 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5

Benfica

Benfica Goalkeeper

Benfica — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Samuel Soares	9	91817 min	151.7 /90	70.8 /90	00 /90
A. Trubin	3	90270 min	144.7 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Benfica — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Benfica before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Samuel Soares n 8	90	1.6 2/2
A. Trubin n 8	90	3.8 7/7

Benfica Defensive

Benfica — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Tomás Araújo	12	871048 min	161.4 /90	121 /90	60.5 /90	393.3 /90	161.4 /90	50.4 /90
S. Dahl	10	86864 min	151.6 /90	141.5 /90	00 /90	384 /90	101 /90	20.2 /90
Clément Lenglet	9	85762 min	70.8 /90	111.3 /90	20.2 /90	283.3 /90	121.4 /90	20.2 /90
A. Bah	9	78702 min	121.5 /90	121.5 /90	20.3 /90	314 /90	91.2 /90	30.4 /90
A. Circati	5	70350 min	41 /90	30.8 /90	20.5 /90	133.3 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90
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Benfica — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Benfica before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Tomás Araújo n 8	89	1 5/1	0.3 2/0	—
G. Prestianni n 8	67.5	0.2 1/0	3 7/4	—
V. Pavlidis n 8	74	1.1 4/1	2 5/4	—
A. Schjelderup n 8	52.1	0.2 1/0	1.9 5/3	—
S. Dahl n 8	84.6	0.7 2/2	0.8 5/1	—
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Benfica — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Benfica before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Tomás Araújo n 8	89	1.5 4/3
G. Prestianni n 8	67.5	1.8 5/4
V. Pavlidis n 8	74	1.4 5/3
A. Schjelderup n 8	52.1	1.1 3/2
S. Dahl n 8	84.6	1.6 5/3
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Benfica Attacking

Benfica — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
V. Pavlidis	11	75828 min	111.2 /90	30.3 /90	323.5 /90	182 /90	171.8 /90	50.5 /90
A. Schjelderup	11	46508 min	10.2 /90	20.4 /90	132.3 /90	40.7 /90	213.7 /90	81.4 /90
D. Lukebakio	8	37299 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	82.4 /90	51.5 /90	10.3 /90	61.8 /90
J. Duran	5	43217 min	31.2 /90	00 /90	72.9 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90	00 /90
G. Prestianni	12	74882 min	70.7 /90	60.6 /90	383.9 /90	181.8 /90	333.4 /90	313.2 /90
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Benfica — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Benfica before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Tomás Araújo n 8	89	0.6 3/1	0.1 1/0
G. Prestianni n 8	67.5	4 8/6	1.7 6/3
V. Pavlidis n 8	74	3.3 8/8	1.5 6/2
A. Schjelderup n 8	52.1	2.8 6/4	0.9 3/1
S. Dahl n 8	84.6	0.5 3/1	0.3 2/0
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Benfica — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Benfica before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Tomás Araújo n 8	89	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
G. Prestianni n 8	67.5	0.7 4/0	0.8 4/1
V. Pavlidis n 8	74	0.9 5/1	0.3 2/0
A. Schjelderup n 8	52.1	0.2 1/0	0.4 1/1
S. Dahl n 8	84.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan Goalkeeper

Lech Poznan — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Lis	16	901440 min	553.4 /90	90.6 /90	00 /90

Lech Poznan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lech Poznan before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Lis n 8	90	4.9 8/5

Lech Poznan Defensive

Lech Poznan — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
M. Gurgul	16	871395 min	171.1 /90	221.4 /90	80.5 /90	402.6 /90	60.4 /90	20.1 /90
Joel Pereira	16	831335 min	342.3 /90	110.7 /90	30.2 /90	855.7 /90	140.9 /90	20.1 /90
M. Skrzypczak	12	861035 min	70.6 /90	121 /90	50.4 /90	353 /90	100.9 /90	20.2 /90
W. Mońka	12	841005 min	60.5 /90	131.2 /90	60.5 /90	292.6 /90	50.4 /90	10.1 /90
T. Yegbe	10	81808 min	50.6 /90	70.8 /90	40.4 /90	232.6 /90	101.1 /90	10.1 /90
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Lech Poznan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lech Poznan before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Lis n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
M. Gurgul n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.9 5/2	—
Joel Pereira n 8	86.3	0.4 2/1	2.2 7/7	—
Pablo Rodríguez n 8	69.4	1 5/1	2.6 8/5	—
P. Wålemark n 8	65.8	0.5 3/0	2.1 7/3	—
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Lech Poznan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lech Poznan before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
M. Gurgul n 8	90	1.4 6/4
Joel Pereira n 8	86.3	2.2 6/4
Pablo Rodríguez n 8	69.4	1.3 5/2
P. Wålemark n 8	65.8	0.7 4/0
R. Murawski n 8	79.6	3 6/4
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Lech Poznan Attacking

Lech Poznan — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Y. Agnero	14	44617 min	30.4 /90	00 /90	202.9 /90	91.3 /90	50.7 /90	101.5 /90
M. Ishak	12	61729 min	40.5 /90	30.4 /90	263.2 /90	121.5 /90	111.4 /90	00 /90
Pablo Rodríguez	16	721153 min	60.5 /90	70.5 /90	272.1 /90	100.8 /90	352.7 /90	161.2 /90
P. Wålemark	16	681086 min	80.7 /90	30.2 /90	332.7 /90	221.8 /90	272.2 /90	161.3 /90
R. Murawski	15	741107 min	00 /90	10.1 /90	80.7 /90	20.2 /90	121 /90	30.2 /90
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Lech Poznan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lech Poznan before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Lis n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Gurgul n 8	90	0.8 5/1	0.4 3/0
Joel Pereira n 8	86.3	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Pablo Rodríguez n 8	69.4	2.8 8/3	1 4/2
P. Wålemark n 8	65.8	4.1 8/4	2.4 8/4
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Lech Poznan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lech Poznan before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Lis n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Gurgul n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Joel Pereira n 8	86.3	0 0/0	0.4 3/0
Pablo Rodríguez n 8	69.4	0.8 3/2	0.6 2/1
P. Wålemark n 8	65.8	1 4/2	0.2 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Benfica v Lech Poznan — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

BenficaLWWWW

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Lech PoznanLWDWW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 2

Benfica 2 · 0 draws · Lech Poznan 0 · 5 goals/game

2020-12-03 Benfica 4–0 Lech Poznan
2020-10-22 Lech Poznan 2–4 Benfica

League standing · 2026/27

Benfica#1 pos9 pts3 pl+8 GD

Lech Poznan#32 pos1 pts3 pl-8 GD

Goals per game

Benfica scored3.33

Lech Poznan scored0.33

Benfica conceded0.67

Lech Poznan conceded3

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Benfica v Lech Poznan?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Benfica v Lech Poznan is Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Lech Poznan?: In their last 2 meetings, Benfica won 2, Lech Poznan won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Benfica and Lech Poznan?: Recent form — Benfica 4W 0D 1L; Lech Poznan 3W 1D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 1 Nov 2026, 03:18 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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