Jagiellonia v Ararat-Armenia result

Full-time · Jagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-Armenia

UEFA Europa League · Thu, 15 Oct 2026 20:00 BST · Stadion Miejski

Updated 18 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Jagiellonia · Ararat-Armenia

The model’s pre-match pick

Jagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-Armenia — Jagiellonia won this UEFA Europa League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.62 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 643 landed (95% range 61.9–69.2%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Jagiellonia beat Ararat-Armenia 3–1 at Stadion Miejski in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October.

The goals

Jagiellonia led 2–1 at half-time. The goals — Ararat-Armenia: Zidane Banjaqui (11’, assisted by Maxence Carlier); Jagiellonia: Kamil Jozwiak (13’), Rodrigo Conceição (38’, assisted by Ferslev Anders Klynge) and Ousmane Sow (51’, assisted by Jesús Imaz).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Rodrigo Conceição’s goal on 38 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Jagiellonia 2.10, Ararat-Armenia 1.02, from 13 shots to 15 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Rodrigo Conceição (Jagiellonia) 11.1, Ferslev Anders Klynge (Jagiellonia) 7.7 and Maxence Carlier (Ararat-Armenia) 7.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Jagiellonia next travel to Zaglebie Lubin on 18 October 2026.

Ararat-Armenia next host AZ Alkmaar on 22 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Jagiellonia: Zaglebie Lubin v Jagiellonia, Sunday 18 October — the preview. Next for Ararat-Armenia: Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar, Thursday 22 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Jagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-Armenia · UEFA Europa League
Venue: Stadion Miejski · Białystok
Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Jagiellonia 1W 0D 4L · Ararat-Armenia 2W 1D 2L

Jagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-Armenia (UEFA Europa League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.63 / 1.25

Goals

against 2 / 1.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

3 / 4

Corners

against 7.13 / 8.4 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 5 matches

3.75 / 2.4

Shots on target

against 5.63 / 7.4 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 5 matches

1.25 / 2.4

Cards

against 1.75 / 3.6 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 5 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Jagiellonia for / against	Line	Ararat-Armenia for / against
Goals scored	1.63 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	1.25 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3 for · 7.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4 for · 8.4 against n 5 Last 5
Shots	12.13 for · 17.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	4.8 for · 12.2 against n 5 Last 5
Shots on target	3.75 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	2.4 for · 7.4 against n 5 Last 5
Fouls committed	14.38 for · 10.25 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.5 for · 15.75 against n 4 Last 5
Cards shown	1.25 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.4 for · 3.6 against n 5 Last 5

Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou.

Jagiellonia

Jagiellonia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Dimitris Rallis n 8	13.1	4.3 5/0	0.9 1/0	—
Jeremy Agbonifo n 8	24.5	3.7 4/3	3.2 4/3	—
Eryk Kozlowski n 8	55	2.7 6/4	1 4/1	—
D. Drachal n 8	37.9	2.7 5/3	1.8 4/2	—
Ferslev Anders Klynge n 8	55.5	2.2 7/4	0.6 3/0	—

Jagiellonia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Jesús Imaz n 8	68.4	2.5 5/5	1.3 5/3
Sergio Lozano n 8	39.3	2.3 6/2	0.6 2/0
A. Cirkovic n 8	60.1	1.9 6/2	0.6 3/0
K. Szmyt n 8	77.5	1.5 5/3	0.4 3/0
O. Sow n 8	38.3	1.5 4/1	0.9 3/0

Jagiellonia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Nik Prelec n 8	74.8	0.2 1/0	0.5 3/0
O. Sow n 8	38.3	0.6 2/0	0 0/0
Jesús Imaz n 8	68.4	0.5 3/0	0 0/0
Y. Sylla n 8	25.8	0.4 1/0	0 0/0
K. Szmyt n 8	77.5	0.3 2/0	0 0/0

Jagiellonia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
K. Jozwiak n 8	26	3.9 4/2
T. Romanczuk n 8	84.4	3.7 7/7
D. Drachal n 8	37.9	3.3 7/3
Rodrigo Conceição n 8	67.8	3 7/4
Sergio Lozano n 8	39.3	2.9 6/3

Jagiellonia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Sławomir Abramowicz n 8	90.4	3.4 6/5

Ararat-Armenia

Ararat-Armenia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Zidane Banjaqui n 8	40.3	3.4 4/4	2.2 4/3	—
A. Eloyan n 4	16.3	2.8 2/0	0 0/0	—
Junior Julio n 4	78.8	1.7 3/1	1.4 3/1	—
Karen Muradyan n 7	54.3	1.7 4/2	0.5 2/0	—
Benny n 7	84.4	1.5 5/3	2 7/4	—

Ararat-Armenia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Franca Carlos n 4	19.5	3.5 3/0	0 0/0
A. Eloyan n 4	16.3	2.8 2/0	0 0/0
Zidane Banjaqui n 8	40.3	2.2 5/2	0.3 1/0
A. Serobyan n 8	58.1	1.5 4/3	0.8 3/1
A. Ambartsumyan n 4	33.8	1.3 2/0	0.7 1/0

Ararat-Armenia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Z. Shaghoyan n 8	44.4	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
Benny n 7	84.4	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
Hugo Oliveira n 8	29.8	0.4 1/0	0 0/0
Zidane Banjaqui n 8	40.3	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
Sandro Lima n 8	78.5	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0

Ararat-Armenia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
E. Grigoryan n 6	57.5	2.1 4/3
A. Malis n 8	85.3	2 6/3
K. Hovhannisyan n 8	85	1.9 7/6
A. Serobyan n 8	58.1	1.7 5/2
Zidane Banjaqui n 8	40.3	1.7 4/2

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Jagiellonia		Ararat-Armenia
42%	Possession	58%
2.10	Expected goals (xG)	1.02
13	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	4
5	Shots off target	7
3	Blocked shots	4
9	Shots inside the box	7
2	Corners	3
6	Offsides	0
22	Fouls	14
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	2
388	Passes	524

Jagiellonia player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Rodrigo Conceição	90	1	0	2	1	0	3	0	7.9
Bernardo Vital	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
Y. Kobayashi	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7
Bartłomiej Wdowik	90	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.4
Ferslev Anders Klynge	90	0	1	0	0	3	6	0	7.7
Sławomir Abramowicz	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
T. Romanczuk	80	0	0	0	0	1	1	Y	6
K. Szmyt	79	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.4
Jesús Imaz	68	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	6.9
K. Jozwiak	68	1	0	3	2	0	1	0	7.8
O. Sow	66	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	7.5
Jeremy Agbonifo	24	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6.6
D. Stojinović	22	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	5.9
Eryk Kozlowski	22	0	0	0	0	0	2	Y	6.1
A. Cirkovic	11	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6.8
Sergio Lozano	10	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.3

Ararat-Armenia player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Hugo Oliveira	90	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.3
Bruno Wilson	90	0	0	1	0	1	1	Y	6.3
E. Grigoryan	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.2
J. A. Balanta	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.4
M. Carlier	90	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	7.7
João Victor	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.5
A. Serobyan	76	0	0	5	1	0	2	0	5.9
Sandro Lima	76	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.1
Z. Shaghoyan	73	0	0	1	1	4	3	0	6.7
Luís Felipe	68	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.3
A. Tera	68	0	0	1	0	0	1	Y	5.6
Karen Muradyan	22	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	6
Zidane Banjaqui	17	1	0	2	1	1	0	0	7.2
A. Eloyan	14	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5.9
Franca Carlos	14	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Jagiellonia v Ararat-Armenia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

JagielloniaWLLLL

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Ararat-ArmeniaWLDWL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

League standing · 2026/27

Jagiellonia#17 pos3 pts2 pl+1 GD

Ararat-Armenia#34 pos0 pts2 pl-5 GD

Goals per game

Jagiellonia scored2

Ararat-Armenia scored1

Jagiellonia conceded1.5

Ararat-Armenia conceded3.5

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Jagiellonia v Ararat-Armenia?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Jagiellonia v Ararat-Armenia was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.62 at Betano).
What is the recent form of Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia?: Recent form — Jagiellonia 1W 0D 4L; Ararat-Armenia 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 18 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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