BG Pathum United v Adelaide United result

Full-time · BG Pathum United 1–2 Adelaide United

AFC Champions League Two · · BG Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: BG Pathum United · Adelaide United

The model’s pre-match pick

BG Pathum United 1–2 Adelaide United — Adelaide United won this AFC Champions League Two match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.70 at Bet365
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 645 landed (95% range 61.8–69.1%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Adelaide United won 2–1 at BG Stadium in AFC Champions League Two on Thursday 15 October.

BG Pathum United are winless in their last four matches.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — BG Pathum United: M. Jurina (2’, assisted by Patrik Gustavsson); Adelaide United: C. Goodwin (10’) and E. Alagich (77’, assisted by Juan Muñiz).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with E. Alagich’s goal on 77 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: BG Pathum United 1.25, Adelaide United 1.39, from 18 shots to 13 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — BG Pathum United: Sarach Yooyen (55’) and A. Belmonte (80’); Adelaide United: Anselmo (59’), P. Kikianis (70’) and A. Riak (89’).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Juan Muñiz (Adelaide United) 9.5, E. Alagich (Adelaide United) 6.5 and M. Jurina (BG Pathum United) 6.2 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Adelaide United next host Brisbane Roar on 18 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Adelaide United: Adelaide United v Brisbane Roar, Sunday 18 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: BG Pathum United 1–2 Adelaide United · AFC Champions League Two
  • Venue: BG Stadium · Pathum Thani
  • Referee: Mohammed Ahmed Al Shammari
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: BG Pathum United 2W 1D 2L · Adelaide United 2W 1D 2L

BG Pathum United 1–2 Adelaide United (AFC Champions League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 17 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.88 / 1.38
Goals
against 1.63 / 1.25 · 0 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
4.67 / 7.33
Corners
against 3.5 / 3.83 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 6 matches
5.5 / 5.83
Shots on target
against 3.67 / 3.67 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 6 matches
1.14 / 2.33
Cards
against 2 / 3.33 · 1 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 6 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 September 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBG Pathum United for / againstLineAdelaide United for / against
Goals scored
0.88 for · 1.63 against n 8
3our book
1.38 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.67 for · 3.5 against n 6
9.5standard
7.33 for · 3.83 against n 6
Shots
17.67 for · 11.83 against n 6
19.5standard
15.83 for · 13.67 against n 6
Shots on target
5.5 for · 3.67 against n 6
8.5standard
5.83 for · 3.67 against n 6
Fouls committed
10.67 for · 8.17 against n 6
21.5standard
9.33 for · 13.5 against n 6
Cards shown
1.14 for · 2 against n 7
3.5standard
2.33 for · 3.33 against n 6

Referee: Mohammed Ahmed Al Shammari.

BG Pathum United
BG Pathum United — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
C. Tongkiri n 855.4
2.66/4
1.63/2
—
Matheus Fornazari n 345
21/1
1.31/1
—
S. Sareepim n 839.6
1.75/1
0.31/0
—
Waris Choolthong n 757.1
1.64/3
1.13/2
—
Kritsada Kaman n 785.9
1.36/2
0.32/0
P. Kikianis
BG Pathum United — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Matheus Fornazari n 345
6.73/3
2.72/1
J. Emaviwe n 538.4
4.73/3
2.82/2
Tomoyuki Doi n 531.8
2.83/2
1.12/0
J. López n 870.3
2.47/3
0.84/1
S. Sareepim n 839.6
2.34/2
0.62/0
BG Pathum United — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Matheus Fornazari n 345
1.31/1
00/0
S. Sareepim n 839.6
00/0
0.92/1
Sarach Yooyen n 856.1
0.21/0
0.42/0
Tomoyuki Doi n 531.8
0.61/0
00/0
J. Emaviwe n 538.4
0.51/0
00/0
BG Pathum United — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Waris Choolthong n 757.1
2.94/4
C. Tongkiri n 855.4
2.45/4
Gakuto Notsuda n 844.1
2.37/2
S. Sareepim n 839.6
23/3
Kritsada Kaman n 785.9
1.95/5
Adelaide United
Adelaide United — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Juan Muñiz n 844.4
2.86/3
1.34/1
—
A. Riak n 437.5
2.43/1
00/0
—
P. Kikianis n 890
1.67/4
0.84/2
Kritsada Kaman
C. Goodwin n 849.4
1.64/3
1.65/2
—
L. Đuzel n 841.6
1.63/1
1.13/1
—
Adelaide United — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Anselmo n 839
46/4
2.65/1
A. Riak n 437.5
2.43/1
0.61/0
Juan Muñiz n 844.4
2.35/3
14/0
H. Crawford n 734.1
1.93/1
0.81/1
J. Yull n 887
1.87/4
0.95/1
Adelaide United — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Ayoubi n 820.1
0.61/0
0.61/0
Anselmo n 839
0.61/1
0.31/0
C. Goodwin n 849.4
0.21/0
0.52/0
L. Jovanović n 835.3
0.61/1
00/0
E. Alagich n 890
0.32/0
0.11/0
Adelaide United — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Anselmo n 839
3.27/3
L. Đuzel n 841.6
35/3
H. Crawford n 734.1
2.63/1
J. Barnett n 888.8
2.48/7
E. Alagich n 890
2.37/5

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BG Pathum UnitedAdelaide United
49%Possession51%
1.25Expected goals (xG)1.39
18Shots13
7Shots on target6
9Shots off target5
2Blocked shots2
10Shots inside the box7
4Corners2
1Offsides2
8Fouls13
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
4Saves6
377Passes477

BG Pathum United player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Scherzer9900112206.8
Saranon Anuin9000000006.9
Sarach Yooyen90003132Y6.6
T. Yanagi9000000006.2
Kritsada Kaman9000000006.5
M. Jurina9010513008.2
A. Belmonte83000020Y6.6
Patrik Gustavsson7201102006.8
Hugo Rama6600221006.5
Y. Quintana6600101106.7
F. Kaufmann2400200005.9
A. Coffey2400000006.1
Waris Choolthong1800000106
João Magno700000006.3
E. Osmanovic100000000

Adelaide United player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Smits9000000007.7
Sotiri Phillis9000000106.5
Juan Muñiz9001324507.7
P. Kikianis90000000Y6.5
H. Crawford9000000106.2
E. Alagich9010310207.9
C. Goodwin8510322008.2
Anselmo85000001Y6.1
J. Yull7300001006.3
J. Barnett6400000106.7
Brody Burkitt6300110106.3
A. Riak27001010Y6.2
F. Talladira2600000006.8
Joey Garuccio1700000106.6
A. Tatu500200006.7
F. Kasumovic500000006.4

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind BG Pathum United v Adelaide United — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BG Pathum UnitedWWLLD
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Adelaide UnitedWDLLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
BG Pathum United#3 pos1 pts2 pl-1 GD
Adelaide United#1 pos6 pts2 pl+4 GD
Goals per game
BG Pathum United scored1
Adelaide United scored2.5
BG Pathum United conceded1.5
Adelaide United conceded0.5

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for BG Pathum United v Adelaide United?
TACTIX’s free model pick for BG Pathum United v Adelaide United was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.70 at Bet365).
What is the recent form of BG Pathum United and Adelaide United?
Recent form — BG Pathum United 2W 1D 2L; Adelaide United 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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