Burkina FasoMauritania

Burkina Faso v Mauritania prediction

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Burkina Faso v Mauritania, Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.6% of 5130 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Burkina Faso host Mauritania in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Wednesday 11 November (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Burkina Faso or Mauritania (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Two of Mauritania’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (13%). Both teams scored in two of Mauritania’s last 15 results in all competitions (13%).

Form and the table

Nine of Burkina Faso’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in six of Burkina Faso’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, Burkina Faso have five wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.29 points per game, scoring 2.29 and conceding 0.86.

Away from home, Mauritania have no wins, three draws and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.43 points per game, scoring 0.43 and conceding 1.71.

Mauritania are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Mauritania have failed to score in their last three matches in all competitions. Burkina Faso (second) and Mauritania (third) are three points apart, the most recent table TACTIX holds. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Mauritania the stronger side, 132 rating points above Burkina Faso (Mauritania 1598, Burkina Faso 1467, after at least 18 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Burkina Faso are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Mauritania. The most recent meeting, on 16 January 2024, finished Burkina Faso 1–0 Mauritania.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

  • Kick-off: · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
  • Model coverage: 182 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 5): Burkina Faso 3 · draws 1 · Mauritania 1 · 1.4 goals/game
  • Recent form: Burkina Faso 3W 0D 2L · Mauritania 1W 2D 2L

Burkina Faso v Mauritania (Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 0.75
Goals
against 0.75 / 1.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.83 / 0
Corners
against 2.33 / 0 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 3 matches
2 / 0
Shots on target
against 1.83 / 0 · 0 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 3 matches
1.83 / 1
Cards
against 1.67 / 3.33 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 3 matches
182
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 January 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 January 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameBurkina Faso for / againstLineMauritania for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 0.75 against n 8
2.5standard
0.75 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
3.83 for · 2.33 against n 6
9.5standard
0 for · 0 against n 3
Shots
8 for · 7.67 against n 6
19.5standard
0 for · 0 against n 3
Shots on target
2 for · 1.83 against n 6
8.5standard
0 for · 0 against n 3
Fouls committed
10.67 for · 9.83 against n 6
21.5standard
0 for · 0 against n 3
Cards shown
1.83 for · 1.67 against n 6
3.5standard
1 for · 3.33 against n 3

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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Burkina Faso v Mauritania — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Burkina FasoWWLWL
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
MauritaniaLWDDL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 0.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 5
Burkina Faso 3 · 1 draw · Mauritania 1 · 1.4 goals/game
  • 2024-01-16 Burkina Faso 1–0 Mauritania
  • 2023-10-17 Mauritania 1–2 Burkina Faso
  • 2021-12-30 Mauritania 0–0 Burkina Faso
  • 2019-03-22 Burkina Faso 1–0 Mauritania
  • 2018-09-08 Mauritania 2–0 Burkina Faso
League standing · 2025/26
Last recorded position from an earlier season — not updated during the season.
Burkina Faso#2 pos10 pts6 pl+3 GD
Mauritania#3 pos7 pts6 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
Burkina Faso scored1.67
Mauritania scored0.5
Burkina Faso conceded1.17
Mauritania conceded1

See the full prediction

Pro members unlock all 182 markets for this match — result, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and player props — plus advanced & key match statistics, expected goals and value against the bookmakers.

Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Burkina Faso v Mauritania?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Burkina Faso v Mauritania is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Burkina Faso and Mauritania?
In their last 5 meetings, Burkina Faso won 3, Mauritania won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 1.4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Burkina Faso and Mauritania?
Recent form — Burkina Faso 3W 0D 2L; Mauritania 1W 2D 2L.

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