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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification Predictions: Free Model Picks, Graded
24 Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification fixtures kick off in the next 10 days, starting with Algeria v Togo (Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT). 24 of them carry a free TACTIX model pick, shown with the best bookmaker price.
A free TACTIX model pick for every upcoming Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification fixture, with the best bookmaker price. Our model is calibrated to ±0.2% across 6M+ graded predictions (all markets, player markets included) — the full win probability, xG and value across 240+ markets are part of Pro.
Updated · picks refresh daily · live track record
Key Facts
Figures as of
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is led by Morocco on 18 points from six games, two points clear of Algeria (this season so far).
Across 144 matches (this season so far), Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification has produced 2.22 goals per game.
This Round at a Glance
- Strongest favourite among the free picks: Senegal v Sudan (Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT) — the free pick is Senegal to win.
- Closest call: Burkina Faso v Mauritania (Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT) — the smallest gap of the round between the two sides’ chances of winning, by the model.
- Likeliest draw: Tunisia v Libya (Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT) — the highest draw chance of the round, by the model.
- Most goals among the free picks: Ivory Coast v Gambia (Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT) — the free pick is over 2.5 goals.
Each line ranks the model’s own probabilities for the round’s 24 matches (from Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT); the favourite and goals lines rank the free picks only. The probabilities themselves, and every market, are on each match page with Pro.
Togo are unbeaten in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
Namibia have lost their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
Gambia have scored in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
Mali are winless in their last 8 (all competitions we cover)
Niger are winless in their last 7 (all competitions we cover)
Tanzania are winless in their last 7 (all competitions we cover)
Senegal have scored in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
Tunisia are winless in their last 6 (all competitions we cover)
Uganda have scored in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
Zambia are winless in their last 8 (all competitions we cover)
What the Data Says About Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
TACTIX lists 24 upcoming Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification fixtures in the next ten days, 24 of them with a free model pick — the single strongest lean in the 62–80% probability band — shown with the best bookmaker price at build time. Across the whole estate the model runs at ±0.2% mean calibration error across a 6M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included); the record is published live, losing predictions included, on the scoreboard and as a hash-chained pre-commitment ledger, so any pick can be checked against what was written before kick-off. Expected goals, venue-adjusted team ratings and market prices feed one calibrated probability per market; a prediction is a probability, never a certainty. This page is regenerated daily (figures as of 5 Nov 2026) and every number in this paragraph is computed at build time, never typed in. Scoreboard · Ledger · How accurate is TACTIX?
This matchweek in numbers
24 fixtures in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification fall inside the next 10 days, starting with Algeria v Togo (Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT). TACTIX’s free pick is posted on 24 of the 24 fixtures in the next 10 days; the remaining markets on every match are Pro.
The table so far
Morocco lead Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on 18 points from six games, two points clear of Algeria (this season so far). Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is averaging 2.22 goals a game across 144 matches, this season so far.
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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification Table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | +24 | 18 |
| 2 | Algeria | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 16 |
| 3 | Senegal | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 4 | South Africa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 14 |
| 5 | Egypt | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 14 |
| 6 | Mali | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 14 |
| 7 | Cameroon | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 8 | Angola | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 | Uganda | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Zambia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 11 | Ivory Coast | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 12 |
| 12 | Congo DR | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 12 |
| 13 | Comoros | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 12 |
| 14 | Nigeria | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 11 |
| 15 | Mozambique | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 11 |
| 16 | Burkina Faso | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 17 | Tunisia | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 10 |
| 18 | Tanzania | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 10 |
| 19 | Gabon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Guinea | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 9 |
| 21 | Zimbabwe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 22 | Benin | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 23 | Gambia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 24 | Rwanda | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 8 |
| 25 | Sudan | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 26 | Equatorial Guinea | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 27 | Botswana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 28 | Niger | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 29 | Mauritania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 30 | Kenya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
| 31 | Guinea-Bissau | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 32 | Togo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 33 | Libya | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 34 | Sierra Leone | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 35 | Cape Verde Islands | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 36 | Malawi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 37 | Burundi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 38 | Congo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
| 39 | Liberia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
| 40 | Ethiopia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 4 |
| 41 | Lesotho | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 4 |
| 42 | Ghana | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 43 | South Sudan | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 |
| 44 | Chad | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 3 |
| 45 | Central African Republic | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 3 |
| 46 | Madagascar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 47 | Namibia | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| 48 | Eswatini | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 2 |
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification — final 2025 table. The current season's table appears here once the first results are in.
How These Picks Work
Each card shows the model’s free pick and the best price we can find across UK bookmakers. We surface one pick per match free; the complete forecast — calibrated win probability, expected goals and value vs the market — opens with TACTIX Pro. We lead with calibration, not an inflated accuracy headline, and the live record (losers included) is on the scoreboard. To see the probability a price implies, and its fair odds with the bookmaker’s margin removed, use the odds calculator.
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