EgyptMalawi

Egypt v Malawi prediction

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification ·

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TACTIX’s model makes Under 2.5 goals the free pick for Egypt v Malawi, Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 54.9% of 144 landed (95% range 46.7–62.8%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Egypt host Malawi in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Wednesday 11 November (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Under 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Egypt have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Six of Egypt’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in eight of Egypt’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Egypt have five wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.43 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 0.71.

Seven of Malawi’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in five of Malawi’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). Away from home, Malawi have two wins, one draw and five defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.88 points per game, scoring 0.50 and conceding 1.50.

Egypt are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Egypt (first) and Malawi (third) are 10 points apart, the most recent table TACTIX holds. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Egypt the stronger side, 322 rating points above Malawi (Egypt 1824, Malawi 1502, after at least 18 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 28 March 2023, finished Malawi 0–4 Egypt.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

  • Kick-off: · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
  • Model coverage: 182 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 2): Egypt 2 · draws 0 · Malawi 0 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: Egypt 1W 3D 1L · Malawi 1W 1D 3L

Egypt v Malawi (Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

182
Markets analysed

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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Egypt v Malawi — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
EgyptDWDDL
Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
MalawiLLWDL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 2
Egypt 2 · 0 draws · Malawi 0 · 3 goals/game
  • 2023-03-28 Malawi 0–4 Egypt
  • 2023-03-24 Egypt 2–0 Malawi
League standing · 2025/26
Last recorded position from an earlier season — not updated during the season.
Egypt#1 pos14 pts6 pl+10 GD
Malawi#3 pos4 pts6 pl-5 GD
Goals per game
Egypt scored2
Malawi scored1
Egypt conceded0.33
Malawi conceded1.83

See the full prediction

Pro members unlock all 182 markets for this match — result, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and player props — plus advanced & key match statistics, expected goals and value against the bookmakers.

Expected goals (xG)
Pro
Win probability & value
Pro
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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Egypt v Malawi?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Egypt v Malawi is Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Egypt and Malawi?
In their last 2 meetings, Egypt won 2, Malawi won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Egypt and Malawi?
Recent form — Egypt 1W 3D 1L; Malawi 1W 1D 3L.

Today’s Boards

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