Ethiopia v Mozambique prediction
Team pages: Ethiopia · Mozambique
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Ethiopia v Mozambique, Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tue, 17 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT.
The match
Ethiopia host Mozambique in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday 17 November (kick-off 13:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Ethiopia or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.
Form and the table
Six of Ethiopia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in five of Ethiopia’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). At home, Ethiopia have two wins, no draws and five defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 0.86 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.86.
10 of Mozambique’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in eight of Mozambique’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Mozambique have four wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 2.13.
TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Mozambique the stronger side, 313 rating points above Ethiopia (Mozambique 1674, Ethiopia 1361, after at least 18 rated matches each).
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The Numbers
- Kick-off: · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
- Model coverage: 182 markets priced for this fixture
- Recent form: Ethiopia 2W 0D 3L · Mozambique 2W 0D 3L
Ethiopia v Mozambique (Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →
Key Stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 January 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Ethiopia for / against | Line | Mozambique for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.25 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 1 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 0 for · 0 against n 3 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 1.29 for · 3.71 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Shots | 0 for · 0 against n 3 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 4.14 for · 10.29 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 0 for · 0 against n 3 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 1.29 for · 4.29 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 0 for · 0 against n 3 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 5.14 for · 10 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.67 for · 0.67 against n 3 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 0.86 for · 1.86 against n 7 Last 5 |
The day’s free picks, by email
Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.
Form, Head-to-Head & Standings
The numbers behind Ethiopia v Mozambique — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is predicted to win Ethiopia v Mozambique?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Ethiopia v Mozambique is Home or Draw.
- What is the recent form of Ethiopia and Mozambique?
- Recent form — Ethiopia 2W 0D 3L; Mozambique 2W 0D 3L.
Today’s Boards
Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.
This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.