Mali v Rwanda prediction
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Under 2.5 goals the free pick for Mali v Rwanda, Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Fri, 13 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT.
The match
Mali host Rwanda in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Friday 13 November (kick-off 19:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Under 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.
The key numbers
Mali are winless in their last five matches in all competitions.
Form and the table
Four of Mali’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in four of Mali’s last 15 results in all competitions (27%). At home, Mali have four wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.29 and conceding 0.57.
Four of Rwanda’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in four of Rwanda’s last 15 results in all competitions (27%). Away from home, Rwanda have three wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.25 points per game, scoring 0.63 and conceding 1.25.
TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Mali the stronger side, 426 rating points above Rwanda (Mali 1819, Rwanda 1393, after at least 18 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 11 November 2021, finished Rwanda 0–3 Mali.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The Numbers
- Kick-off: · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Stade du 26 Mars
- Model coverage: 146 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 2): Mali 2 · draws 0 · Rwanda 0 · 2 goals/game
- Recent form: Mali 0W 4D 1L · Rwanda 1W 1D 3L
Mali v Rwanda (Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →
Key Stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 January 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Mali for / against | Line | Rwanda for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.13 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5our book | 0.5 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 2.17 for · 3.83 against n 6 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 1.33 for · 2.33 against n 3 Last 5 |
| Shots | 6.83 for · 7.67 against n 6 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 1.33 for · 4 against n 3 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 1.67 for · 2.5 against n 6 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 0 for · 1.67 against n 3 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 8.83 for · 10.67 against n 6 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 6.33 for · 4 against n 3 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 3 for · 1.67 against n 6 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.67 for · 2.67 against n 3 Last 5 |
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings
The numbers behind Mali v Rwanda — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2021-11-11 Rwanda 0–3 Mali
- 2021-09-01 Mali 1–0 Rwanda
Elo Ratings Before Kick-Off
- Mali: Elo rating 1819, rising over the last five rated matches.
- Rwanda: Elo rating 1393, rising over the last five rated matches.
Mali are rated 426 points higher.
Ratings come from match results only and are taken before kick-off.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is predicted to win Mali v Rwanda?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Mali v Rwanda is Under 2.5 goals (best price 1.85 at Betfair).
- What is the head-to-head record between Mali and Rwanda?
- In their last 2 meetings, Mali won 2, Rwanda won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Mali and Rwanda?
- Recent form — Mali 0W 4D 1L; Rwanda 1W 1D 3L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.