SenegalSudan

Senegal v Sudan prediction

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Senegal v Sudan, Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 78.5% of 274 landed (95% range 73.2–82.9%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Senegal host Sudan in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Wednesday 11 November (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Senegal to win, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Both teams scored in three of Sudan’s last 15 results in all competitions (20%).

Senegal are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Sudan, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

11 of Senegal’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in six of Senegal’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, Senegal have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.38 points per game, scoring 2.38 and conceding 0.63.

Four of Sudan’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (27%). Away from home, Sudan have one win, one draw and seven defeats in their last 9 away matches in all competitions — 0.44 points per game, scoring 0.33 and conceding 1.78.

Senegal (first) and Sudan (second) are eight points apart, the most recent table TACTIX holds. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Senegal the stronger side, 437 rating points above Sudan (Senegal 1800, Sudan 1363, after at least 18 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 3 January 2026, finished Senegal 3–1 Sudan.

Team news

Predicted Senegal XI (4-4-2): M. Diaw, M. Niakhaté, K. Diatta, E. Diouf, I. Jakobs, I. Gueye, P. Gueye, L. Camara, H. Diarra, S. Mané, N. Jackson — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven.

Predicted Sudan XI (4-4-2): M. Elneel, B. Khamis, M. Erneq, M. Karshoum, S. Barglan, W. Khedr, M. Abdelrahman, A. Abdalla, S. Alhassan, M. Eisa, A. Nooh — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

  • Kick-off: · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
  • Model coverage: 182 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 5): Senegal 4 · draws 1 · Sudan 0 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Senegal 1W 0D 4L · Sudan 1W 0D 4L

Senegal v Sudan (Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 0.25
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.67 / 1.71
Corners
against 4 / 3.86 · 2 of the last 3 over 9.5
over 6 matches
6.5 / 1.14
Shots on target
against 3.67 / 3.14 · 3 of the last 3 over 8.5
over 6 matches
1.83 / 2
Cards
against 1.67 / 1.86 · 1 of the last 3 over 3.5
over 6 matches
182
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 1 July 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 1 July 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameSenegal for / againstLineSudan for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5standard
0.25 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
6.67 for · 4 against n 6
9.5standard
1.71 for · 3.86 against n 7
Shots
15.83 for · 8.33 against n 6
19.5standard
5.29 for · 7.57 against n 7
Shots on target
6.5 for · 3.67 against n 6
8.5standard
1.14 for · 3.14 against n 7
Fouls committed
11.67 for · 10.83 against n 6
21.5standard
5.57 for · 9.14 against n 7
Cards shown
1.83 for · 1.67 against n 6
3.5standard
2 for · 1.86 against n 7

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Senegal v Sudan — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SenegalLLLWL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 2 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
SudanLLWLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.4 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 5
Senegal 4 · 1 draw · Sudan 0 · 2 goals/game
  • 2026-01-03 Senegal 3–1 Sudan
  • 2025-09-05 Senegal 2–0 Sudan
  • 2025-03-22 Sudan 0–0 Senegal
  • 2018-10-16 Sudan 0–1 Senegal
  • 2018-10-13 Senegal 3–0 Sudan
League standing · 2025/26
Last recorded position from an earlier season — not updated during the season.
Senegal#1 pos16 pts6 pl+9 GD
Sudan#2 pos8 pts6 pl-2 GD
Goals per game
Senegal scored1.67
Sudan scored0.67
Senegal conceded0.17
Sudan conceded1

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Senegal v Sudan?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Senegal v Sudan is Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Senegal and Sudan?
In their last 5 meetings, Senegal won 4, Sudan won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Senegal and Sudan?
Recent form — Senegal 1W 0D 4L; Sudan 1W 0D 4L.

Today’s Boards

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