South Africa v Kenya prediction
Team pages: South Africa · Kenya
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Under 3.5 goals the free pick for South Africa v Kenya, Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT.
The match
South Africa host Kenya in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Wednesday 11 November (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Under 3.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.
Form and the table
Six of South Africa’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in five of South Africa’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). At home, South Africa have four wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.86 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 0.71.
Eight of Kenya’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Kenya’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Kenya have three wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.57 points per game, scoring 1.86 and conceding 1.71.
South Africa (first) and Kenya (third) are eight points apart, the most recent table TACTIX holds. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have South Africa the stronger side, 297 rating points above Kenya (South Africa 1760, Kenya 1463, after at least 12 rated matches each).
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The Numbers
- Kick-off: · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
- Model coverage: 182 markets priced for this fixture
- Recent form: South Africa 1W 1D 3L · Kenya 2W 0D 3L
South Africa v Kenya (Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →
Key Stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 June 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | South Africa for / against | Line | Kenya for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 1.5 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 3.5 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 0 for · 0 against n 3 Last 5 |
| Shots | 12.63 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 0 for · 0 against n 3 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.25 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 0 for · 0 against n 3 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 11.13 for · 13.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 0 for · 0 against n 3 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.25 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2 for · 1.67 against n 3 Last 5 |
The day’s free picks, by email
Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.
Form, Head-to-Head & Standings
The numbers behind South Africa v Kenya — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is predicted to win South Africa v Kenya?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for South Africa v Kenya is Under 3.5 goals.
- What is the recent form of South Africa and Kenya?
- Recent form — South Africa 1W 1D 3L; Kenya 2W 0D 3L.
Today’s Boards
Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.
This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.