Our Bundesliga predicted table 2026/27 makes Bayern München favourites for the Meisterschale at 87.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons run on 4 November 2026, after 72 of 306 matches. The table below also shows each side’s chance of the Champions League places and of the relegation places.
Who Does the Model Make Favourite in the Bundesliga 2026/27?
As of 4 November 2026, the TACTIX model makes Bayern München favourites to finish top at 87.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons after 72 of 306 matches. Borussia Dortmund are next on 11.3%; the table gives every club's projected points and top-four and relegation chances.
Bundesliga Predicted Table 2026/27
| # | Club | Pts now | Proj pts | Title | Top 4 | Rel | Likely finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 18 | 78.8 | 87.4% | >99.9% | <0.1% | 1st (1st–2nd) |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 18 | 69.0 | 11.3% | 96.9% | <0.1% | 2nd (1st–4th) |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 15 | 58.7 | 0.8% | 64.4% | <0.1% | 4th (2nd–8th) |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 13 | 56.9 | 0.3% | 50.6% | <0.1% | 4th (2nd–9th) |
| 5 | SC Freiburg | 16 | 54.2 | <0.1% | 34.2% | 0.1% | 5th (3rd–11th) |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 52.9 | <0.1% | 28.3% | 0.4% | 6th (3rd–12th) |
| 7 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 48.3 | <0.1% | 10.1% | 1.7% | 8th (4th–14th) |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 45.6 | <0.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 10th (5th–15th) |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 10 | 44.0 | <0.1% | 2.9% | 6.3% | 10th (5th–16th) |
| 10 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 43.7 | <0.1% | 2.9% | 7.0% | 10th (5th–16th) |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 11 | 43.0 | <0.1% | 1.9% | 8.9% | 11th (6th–16th) |
| 12 | SV Elversberg | 13 | 43.0 | <0.1% | 1.7% | 9.0% | 11th (6th–16th) |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 42.3 | <0.1% | 1.5% | 9.2% | 11th (6th–16th) |
| 14 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 38.1 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 28.4% | 14th (8th–18th) |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 35.7 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 41.5% | 15th (9th–18th) |
| 16 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 34.4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 49.4% | 15th (10th–18th) |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 34.4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 51.6% | 16th (10th–18th) |
| 18 | FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 28.7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 82.3% | 17th (13th–18th) |
Projection generated on 4 November 2026, after 72 of 306 matches of the 2026/27 Bundesliga season (234 fixtures still to play). Current points are shown next to each club for contrast.
TACTIX Bundesliga projected table, 2026/27, as of 4 November 2026: the model makes Bayern München title favourite at 87.4% across 10,000 simulated seasons, after 72 of 306 matches, over a 18-club table. A projection, not a prediction of the result.
Biggest Movers vs the Current Table
The model has VfB Stuttgart finishing 6th, 5 places above their current 11th, while SV Elversberg is projected to slip from 7th today to 12th.
Projection, Not Prophecy
In 1,256 of the 10,000 simulated seasons — 12.6% of them — somebody other than Bayern München finished top. A 87.4% title probability measures how open the race is — it is not a verdict. These are the same calibrated probabilities TACTIX grades in public every night on the live scoreboard, losers included — so you can check whether numbers like these deserve your trust before you lean on them.
How This Projection Works
- Each of the 234 remaining Bundesliga fixtures is priced as a full scoreline distribution by TACTIX's Dixon-Coles engine — team attack and defence strengths fitted on the trailing 12 months of matches, plus a per-league low-score correction.
- For 9 fixtures inside the priced window (roughly the next seven days), the simulation re-uses the calibrated 1X2 probabilities already published on TACTIX's prediction pages, so this page and the fixture pages never disagree.
- The season is then played out 10,000 times. Ties are broken by points, then goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; head-to-head tie-break rules (used in some leagues) are approximated by goal difference.
- Zones on this page: top four (Champions League places); relegation = bottom 3, counting the relegation play-off place.
- The current table is derived from fixture results; any points deductions are not reflected.
- Scope: TACTIX projects the six major domestic leagues. The Champions League and Europa League are excluded — team strengths are fitted per league and do not transfer honestly across competitions.
- Read more: how the TACTIX models work · methodology.
Bundesliga Predicted Table — FAQs
Who is most likely to win the 2026/27 Bundesliga title, according to the model?
The model's favourite is Bayern München, with a 87.4% title probability from 10,000 season simulations as of 4 November 2026. That is a probability, not a promise — the projected table on this page shows every club's chances.
How is the Bundesliga predicted table calculated?
TACTIX simulates every remaining Bundesliga fixture 10,000 times with its Dixon-Coles scoreline model, using team strengths fitted on the last 12 months of matches. Ties are broken by points, goal difference then goals scored. Only the six major domestic leagues are projected — the Champions League and Europa League are excluded because team strengths do not transfer across competitions.
How often is this page updated?
Weekly. TACTIX re-runs the full 10,000-simulation projection every Wednesday morning, and the dateline under the title shows the exact run date. Probabilities move as results arrive — that is the projection working, not failing.
Where can I check whether these title and relegation probabilities are reliable?
Every probability TACTIX publishes is graded against real results on the public scoreboard, losers included. The projection on this page comes from the same calibrated model.
More From TACTIX
- Bundesliga predictions for every fixture
- Live model scoreboard — accuracy by league & market
- Bundesliga top scorers — the Golden Boot race
- How accurate is TACTIX? The honest, graded answer
How we model this: TACTIX grades every fixture by model confidence and reports its accuracy in the open. See the live track record and how the model works.
18+. TACTIX previews, predictions and reviews are model-informed analysis — not betting advice or guarantees. Please gamble responsibly — support at BeGambleAware.org.
This post is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically. How it works →
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