Our Championship predicted table 2026/27 makes Southampton favourites to finish top at 44.0%, from 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures run on 4 November 2026, after 165 of 552 matches. With twenty-four clubs and a long season, the spread is wide: automatic promotion, the play-off places and the drop are all shown club by club below.
Who Does the Model Make Favourite in the Championship 2026/27?
As of 4 November 2026, the TACTIX model makes Southampton favourites to finish top at 44.0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons after 165 of 552 matches. West Ham are next on 23.0%; the table gives every club's projected points and promotion and relegation chances.
Championship Predicted Table 2026/27
| # | Club | Pts now | Proj pts | Title | Top 2 | Play-offs (3–8) | Rel | Likely finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 28 | 90.2 | 44.0% | 69.6% | 30.0% | <0.1% | 2nd (1st–5th) |
| 2 | West Ham | 22 | 86.2 | 23.0% | 48.3% | 50.0% | <0.1% | 3rd (1st–7th) |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 28 | 85.8 | 20.0% | 43.4% | 54.6% | <0.1% | 3rd (1st–7th) |
| 4 | Wolves | 24 | 82.1 | 9.1% | 23.7% | 70.3% | <0.1% | 4th (1st–9th) |
| 5 | Birmingham | 26 | 76.9 | 2.4% | 8.1% | 74.6% | <0.1% | 5th (2nd–11th) |
| 6 | Swansea | 26 | 71.9 | 0.4% | 1.9% | 55.3% | <0.1% | 8th (3rd–14th) |
| 7 | Sheffield Utd | 22 | 71.6 | 0.5% | 2.1% | 55.8% | <0.1% | 8th (3rd–14th) |
| 8 | Norwich | 18 | 69.5 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 45.5% | <0.1% | 9th (4th–15th) |
| 9 | West Brom | 25 | 69.2 | 0.2% | 0.8% | 42.5% | <0.1% | 9th (4th–16th) |
| 10 | Millwall | 18 | 66.5 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 29.9% | 0.2% | 10th (5th–17th) |
| 11 | Stoke City | 26 | 66.1 | <0.1% | 0.3% | 26.1% | 0.1% | 11th (5th–17th) |
| 12 | QPR | 21 | 64.6 | <0.1% | 0.3% | 21.3% | 0.3% | 12th (6th–18th) |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 22 | 64.2 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 19.3% | 0.3% | 12th (6th–18th) |
| 14 | Wrexham | 14 | 60.6 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 10.1% | 1.7% | 14th (7th–20th) |
| 15 | Bristol City | 18 | 59.9 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 7.7% | 2.0% | 14th (8th–20th) |
| 16 | Blackburn | 18 | 57.2 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 16th (9th–21st) |
| 17 | Burnley | 10 | 53.4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1.6% | 10.4% | 17th (11th–22nd) |
| 18 | Cardiff | 14 | 52.9 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1.1% | 11.7% | 18th (11th–23rd) |
| 19 | Bolton | 17 | 50.5 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 20.3% | 19th (13th–23rd) |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 48.6 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 29.0% | 20th (14th–23rd) |
| 21 | Derby | 7 | 48.3 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 30.8% | 20th (14th–24th) |
| 22 | Charlton | 14 | 45.0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 49.6% | 21st (16th–24th) |
| 23 | Lincoln | 15 | 44.9 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 51.0% | 22nd (16th–24th) |
| 24 | Preston | 5 | 36.4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 88.4% | 24th (20th–24th) |
Projection generated on 4 November 2026, after 165 of 552 matches of the 2026/27 Championship season (387 fixtures still to play). Current points are shown next to each club for contrast.
TACTIX Championship projected table, 2026/27, as of 4 November 2026: the model makes Southampton title favourite at 44.0% across 10,000 simulated seasons, after 165 of 552 matches, over a 24-club table. A projection, not a prediction of the result.
Biggest Movers vs the Current Table
The model has West Ham finishing 2nd, 6 places above their current 8th, while Stoke City is projected to slip from 4th today to 11th.
Projection, Not Prophecy
In 5,595 of the 10,000 simulated seasons — 56.0% of them — somebody other than Southampton finished top. A 44.0% title probability measures how open the race is — it is not a verdict. These are the same calibrated probabilities TACTIX grades in public every night on the live scoreboard, losers included — so you can check whether numbers like these deserve your trust before you lean on them.
How This Projection Works
- Each of the 387 remaining Championship fixtures is priced as a full scoreline distribution by TACTIX's Dixon-Coles engine — team attack and defence strengths fitted on the trailing 12 months of matches, plus a per-league low-score correction.
- For 15 fixtures inside the priced window (roughly the next seven days), the simulation re-uses the calibrated 1X2 probabilities already published on TACTIX's prediction pages, so this page and the fixture pages never disagree.
- The season is then played out 10,000 times. Ties are broken by points, then goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; head-to-head tie-break rules (used in some leagues) are approximated by goal difference.
- Zones on this page: automatic promotion (top two); play-offs = 3rd–8th; relegation = bottom 3.
- The current table is derived from fixture results; any points deductions are not reflected.
- Scope: TACTIX projects the six major domestic leagues. The Champions League and Europa League are excluded — team strengths are fitted per league and do not transfer honestly across competitions.
- Read more: how the TACTIX models work · methodology.
Championship Predicted Table — FAQs
Who is most likely to win the 2026/27 Championship title, according to the model?
The model's favourite is Southampton, with a 44.0% title probability from 10,000 season simulations as of 4 November 2026. That is a probability, not a promise — the projected table on this page shows every club's chances.
How is the Championship predicted table calculated?
TACTIX simulates every remaining Championship fixture 10,000 times with its Dixon-Coles scoreline model, using team strengths fitted on the last 12 months of matches. Ties are broken by points, goal difference then goals scored. Only the six major domestic leagues are projected — the Champions League and Europa League are excluded because team strengths do not transfer across competitions.
How often is this page updated?
Weekly. TACTIX re-runs the full 10,000-simulation projection every Wednesday morning, and the dateline under the title shows the exact run date. Probabilities move as results arrive — that is the projection working, not failing.
Where can I check whether these title and relegation probabilities are reliable?
Every probability TACTIX publishes is graded against real results on the public scoreboard, losers included. The projection on this page comes from the same calibrated model.
More From TACTIX
- Championship predictions for every fixture
- Live model scoreboard — accuracy by league & market
- Championship top scorers — the Golden Boot race
- How accurate is TACTIX? The honest, graded answer
How we model this: TACTIX grades every fixture by model confidence and reports its accuracy in the open. See the live track record and how the model works.
18+. TACTIX previews, predictions and reviews are model-informed analysis — not betting advice or guarantees. Please gamble responsibly — support at BeGambleAware.org.
This post is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically. How it works →
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