Reading football stats fairly: per-90, sample size and form
Reading football stats fairly: per-90 numbers, sample size, regression to the mean, form, game state, strength of schedule and home advantage explained.
Pressing and territory stats: PPDA, field tilt and xT
Pressing and territory stats explained: PPDA, field tilt, progressive passes, packing, expected threat and possession-adjusted numbers, with what each shows.
Prediction model metrics: Brier score, log loss, calibration
Prediction model metrics explained: the Brier score, log loss and reliability curves, plus overfitting and ensembles, and how to read them on a real record.
How football prediction models work: Poisson to simulation
How football prediction models work: Poisson goals, the Dixon-Coles correction, Elo ratings, Monte Carlo simulation, expected points and in-play probability.
Handicap betting explained: Asian, European and draw no bet
Handicap betting explained: Asian and European handicaps, draw no bet, double chance and void bets, with how each line settles and when stakes are returned.
Goalscorer markets and bet builders explained
Goalscorer markets explained: anytime and first goalscorer bets, how own goals and substitutes are treated, and how bet builders price correlated selections.
Goals markets explained: over/under, clean sheets, correct score
Goals markets explained: over/under lines, clean sheets, correct score and half-time/full-time, with how each settles and what drives the price.
Expected goals metrics explained: npxG, xA, xGOT and more
Expected goals metrics explained in plain English: non-penalty xG, expected assists, xGOT, goals prevented, set-piece xG and shot-creating actions.
Cash out and hedging explained, plus each way and arbitrage
Cash out and hedging explained: what an early settlement costs, how a hedge locks in a position, and how each-way and arbitrage bets work in football.
FPL Gameweek 6 planner: the data, Thu 8 Oct
FPL Gameweek 6 planner: the figures, their window and how they were measured, from TACTIX's published and graded predictions (Thu 8 Oct).
TACTIX model scorecard — August 2026
How closely the TACTIX model’s probabilities matched the results in August 2026, bucket by bucket, and how they compared with the bookmakers’ closing prices. Good months and bad months are published the same way.
FPL Gameweek 5 planner: fixture difficulty, chip timing and projected points
Venue-adjusted fixture difficulty for the next 6 gameweeks from the TACTIX model, the shape of each gameweek, chip guidance against fixed rules, and projected points for GW5.
TACTIX Simulation Report #4 — title race, top four and the drop, by the numbers
Issue #4 of the weekly simulation record: the full Premier League movement table, one line per club, and the biggest movers across the covered leagues. Updated 20 September 2026.
TACTIX Simulation Report #3 — title race, top four and the drop, by the numbers
Issue #3 of the weekly simulation record: the full Premier League movement table, one line per club, and the biggest movers across the covered leagues. Updated 13 September 2026.
Championship midweek review: the model's calls, Tue 27 Oct
Championship midweek review: how the midweek's results played out and how TACTIX's model picks performed — the honest scoreboard.
FPL Gameweek 3 planner: fixture difficulty, chip timing and projected points
Venue-adjusted fixture difficulty for the next 6 gameweeks from the TACTIX model, the shape of each gameweek, chip guidance against fixed rules, and projected points for GW3.
Sofascore alternative: a forecast you can audit
Sofascore alternative for the reader who wants more than live data: a calibrated forecast with a public record and an open player rating. Checked October 2026.
FBref alternative: what the reference does not do
FBref alternative by job: FBref is the football archive, so this covers what it does not publish (forecasts, an open rating, downloads) and where to find each.
Understat alternative: beyond the top-league xG tables
Understat alternative by edge: what Understat publishes, where it stops on coverage, forecasts and downloads, and downloadable expected-points tables elsewhere.
Infogol alternative: where the xG predictions went
Infogol alternative: infogol.net no longer resolves. What Infogol did, which sites cover each part of the job and where xG-based forecasts live now.
Bundesliga week in review
Bundesliga week in review: RB Leipzig 5–2 FC Augsburg was the round’s most one-sided result, a 3-goal margin.
FPL Gameweek 2 planner: fixture difficulty, chip timing and projected points
Venue-adjusted fixture difficulty for the next 6 gameweeks from the TACTIX model, the shape of each gameweek, chip guidance against fixed rules, and projected points for GW2.
Ligue 1 week in review
Ligue 1 week in review: nothing was as emphatic as Toulouse 3–1 Strasbourg, won by 2 goals.
Premier League week in review
Premier League week in review: nothing was as emphatic as Crystal Palace 1–3 Liverpool, won by 2 goals.