Issue #4 · week 2026-W39 · simulations updated 20 September 2026 · 10,000 season simulations per league
The TACTIX Simulation Report is the weekly, numbered record of what our season simulations say — and how they moved. Every number below is the same number the live Supercomputer hub shows; the deltas compare this run with the previous one.
Three Lines You Can Quote
- Manchester City won the Premier League title in 53.3% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026/27 season. (TACTIX Simulation Report #4)
- The gap at the top: Manchester City 53.3% vs Arsenal 45.5% — a 7.8-point difference in title likelihood. (TACTIX Simulation Report #4)
- 2 of 20 Premier League clubs took the title in at least 1% of simulations. (TACTIX Simulation Report #4)
Premier League 2026/27 — The Full Movement Table
| # | Club | Title | Δ | Top 4 | Relegation | Avg pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 53.3% | +790.0pp | 99.8% | 0% | 84.4 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 45.5% | −830.0pp | 99.8% | 0% | 83.6 |
| 3 | Brighton | 0.5% | +10.0pp | 61.3% | 0% | 65 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 0.5% | +20.0pp | 50.4% | <0.1% | 63.2 |
| 5 | Brentford | 0.1% | · | 29.9% | 0.1% | 59.8 |
| 6 | Leeds | <0.1% | · | 14.6% | 0.4% | 55.9 |
| 7 | Liverpool | <0.1% | · | 13.6% | 0.5% | 55.6 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | <0.1% | · | 6.8% | 1.6% | 52.4 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 0% | · | 6.1% | 1.9% | 52 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 0% | · | 5.8% | 2.1% | 51.7 |
| 11 | Everton | 0% | · | 4.2% | 2.0% | 50.7 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 0% | · | 3.8% | 2.5% | 50.6 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 0% | · | 2.9% | 3.2% | 49.7 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 0% | · | 0.5% | 15.0% | 43.8 |
| 15 | Fulham | 0% | · | 0.4% | 16.3% | 43.2 |
| 16 | Hull City | 0% | · | <0.1% | 35.3% | 39.1 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 0% | · | <0.1% | 41.7% | 38 |
| 18 | Ipswich | 0% | · | <0.1% | 50.9% | 36.7 |
| 19 | Coventry | 0% | · | <0.1% | 60.8% | 35 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 0% | · | 0% | 65.7% | 34 |
Club by Club
One line per club, for the beat writer who covers exactly one of them:
- Manchester City (1/20 by simulation) — title 53.3% (+790.0pp on the last run), top four 99.8%, averaging 84.4 pts.
- Arsenal (2/20 by simulation) — title 45.5% (−830.0pp on the last run), top four 99.8%, averaging 83.6 pts.
- Brighton (3/20 by simulation) — top four 61.3% (title +10.0pp), relegation 0%, averaging 65 pts.
- Manchester United (4/20 by simulation) — title 0.5% (+20.0pp on the last run), top four 50.4%, averaging 63.2 pts.
- Brentford (5/20 by simulation) — top four 29.9%, relegation 0.1%, averaging 59.8 pts.
- Leeds (6/20 by simulation) — top four 14.6%, relegation 0.4%, averaging 55.9 pts.
- Liverpool (7/20 by simulation) — top four 13.6%, relegation 0.5%, averaging 55.6 pts.
- Aston Villa (8/20 by simulation) — top four 6.8%, relegation 1.6%, averaging 52.4 pts.
- Bournemouth (9/20 by simulation) — top four 6.1%, relegation 1.9%, averaging 52 pts.
- Chelsea (10/20 by simulation) — top four 5.8%, relegation 2.1%, averaging 51.7 pts.
- Everton (11/20 by simulation) — top four 4.2%, relegation 2.0%, averaging 50.7 pts.
- Newcastle (12/20 by simulation) — top four 3.8%, relegation 2.5%, averaging 50.6 pts.
- Nottingham Forest (13/20 by simulation) — top four 2.9%, relegation 3.2%, averaging 49.7 pts.
- Sunderland (14/20 by simulation) — relegation 15.0% (+80.0pp), top-half push 0.5%, averaging 43.8 pts.
- Fulham (15/20 by simulation) — relegation 16.3% (−60.0pp), top-half push 0.4%, averaging 43.2 pts.
- Hull City (16/20 by simulation) — relegation 35.3% (+480.0pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 39.1 pts.
- Crystal Palace (17/20 by simulation) — relegation 41.7% (−170.0pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 38 pts.
- Ipswich (18/20 by simulation) — relegation 50.9% (+440.0pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 36.7 pts.
- Coventry (19/20 by simulation) — relegation 60.8% (−1200.0pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 35 pts.
- Tottenham (20/20 by simulation) — relegation 65.7% (+720.0pp), top-half push 0%, averaging 34 pts.
Movers Elsewhere
- Bundesliga: Grazer AK — top spots 46.7% (−280.0pp).
- Challenger Pro League: Dender — title 69.6% (−490.0pp).
- Jupiler Pro League: Charleroi — top spots 36.0% (+680.0pp).
- Série A: Atletico-MG — top spots 18.7% (−760.0pp).
- Bundesliga: VfB Stuttgart — top spots 41.9% (−890.0pp).
- Championship: Southampton — top spots 46.9% (−660.0pp).
- Super League: Beijing Guoan — top spots 56.3% (−30.0pp).
- Superliga: FC Midtjylland — title 37.7% (−360.0pp).
- League One: Oxford United — top spots 86.1% (−390.0pp).
- League Two: York — title 44.3% (−1010.0pp).
- National League: AFC Fylde — title 23.0% (−970.0pp).
- Ligue 2: Metz — top spots 22.5% (−400.0pp).
- 2. Bundesliga: Hertha BSC — top spots 44.1% (+440.0pp).
- Super League 1: Atromitos — top spots 28.2% (−1050.0pp).
- Serie B: Catanzaro — top spots 22.9% (−510.0pp).
- La Liga: Barcelona — title 89.2% (+210.0pp).
- Ligue 1: Lyon — top spots 35.8% (+870.0pp).
- Eredivisie: Ajax — top spots 28.6% (−340.0pp).
- Eliteserien: Bodo/Glimt — title 81.1% (+40.0pp).
- Ekstraklasa: Gornik Zabrze — title 26.7% (−370.0pp).
- Primeira Liga: Sporting CP — top spots 54.3% (−630.0pp).
- Saudi Pro League: Al-Hilal Saudi FC — title 68.5% (+60.0pp).
- Serie A: AS Roma — title 17.0% (−260.0pp).
- Segunda División: Tenerife — top spots 37.0% (−1160.0pp).
- Allsvenskan: Sirius — title 62.5% (+1360.0pp).
- Süper Lig: Galatasaray — top spots 63.5% (−740.0pp).
- Premier League: Polessya — title 24.3% (−40.0pp).
- Cymru Premier: Llandudno — top spots 49.9% (−850.0pp).
Model vs the Market, This Week
The model’s settled hit rate against the bookmaker favourite, from the live accuracy leaderboard (last-12-months window, all leagues, losers included):
| Market | Settled picks | Model | Bookmaker favourite | Model − favourite | Δ model since last issue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| player_cards_yellow_under_0_5 | 9,428 | 94.4% | — | — | 0.0 pp (+488 picks) |
| player_tackles_total_under_3_5 | 8,572 | 98.0% | — | — | 0.0 pp (+714 picks) |
| player_shots_on_under_2_5 | 8,153 | 99.8% | — | — | · |
Hit rate answers “who picks winners more often” — it is not a profitability claim; probabilities are odds to weigh, not promises. Definitions and every league’s cells: the leaderboard.
Method, in One Paragraph
Each covered league is simulated thousands of times from the current table and remaining fixtures, using the same calibrated match model that prices every prediction on the site. Probabilities are model estimates — odds to weigh, not promises. The live, always-current version of every table on this page is at tactix.football/supercomputer; embeddable versions are free at /widgets with the credit intact. Cite this issue as “TACTIX Simulation Report #4”.
This post is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically. How it works →
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