1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV result

Full-time · 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV

Bundesliga · Sat, 10 Oct 2026 14:30 BST · PreZero Arena

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: 1899 Hoffenheim · Hamburger SV

The model’s pre-match pick

1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV — Hamburger SV won this Bundesliga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.44 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.5% of 505 landed (95% range 64.3–72.4%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 589 of 919 times (64.1%), against an average rating of 67.5%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Hamburger SV: 1.56 to 0.93 in expected goals, from 16 shots to 17, ahead on xG from the 11th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Hamburger SV won 3–2 at PreZero Arena in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October. It is Hamburger SV’s first win over 1899 Hoffenheim since 26 November 2017, after three meetings without one (the 4 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals TACTIX’s match events name — Hamburger SV: Yussuf Poulsen (12’), an own goal by Sebastiaan Bornauw (45’), Teremas Moffi (83’, assisted by M. Muheim) and M. Muheim (90’); 1899 Hoffenheim: Bambasé Conté (53’, assisted by Fisnik Asllani). Bernardo (65’) was sent off.

Discipline

Harm Osmers, Germany showed three yellow cards and one red — against 4.4 yellows a game across the last 12 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — 1899 Hoffenheim: Bernardo (55’), Bernardo (65’) and Leon Avdullahu (80’).

What it changes

1899 Hoffenheim move down from 14th to 16th (five league matches played). 1899 Hoffenheim have scored nine goals, the ninth-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). 1899 Hoffenheim have conceded 13 goals, the fourth-most of the 18 clubs.

Hamburger SV move up from 15th to 10th (five league matches played). Hamburger SV have scored five goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). Hamburger SV have conceded 15 goals, the third-most of the 18 clubs.

1899 Hoffenheim have lost their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Bambasé Conté (1899 Hoffenheim) 11.3, M. Muheim (Hamburger SV) 9.7 and Yussuf Poulsen (Hamburger SV) 6.5 led the match.

Head-to-head

1899 Hoffenheim are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Hamburger SV.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

1899 Hoffenheim next travel to Eintracht Frankfurt on 21 November 2026.

Hamburger SV next travel to Werder Bremen on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for 1899 Hoffenheim: Eintracht Frankfurt v 1899 Hoffenheim, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Hamburger SV: Werder Bremen v Hamburger SV, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV · Bundesliga
Venue: PreZero Arena · Sinsheim
Referee: Harm Osmers, Germany
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 4): 1899 Hoffenheim 3 · draws 0 · Hamburger SV 1 · 3.25 goals/game
Recent form: 1899 Hoffenheim 1W 0D 4L · Hamburger SV 2W 0D 3L

1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 24 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 1.38

Goals

against 2 / 2.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

8.38 / 3.13

Corners

against 4.13 / 5.38 · 5 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.5 / 4.5

Shots on target

against 4 / 5.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.38 / 1.38

Cards

against 1.5 / 2.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

4.42 yellows

Referee · Harm Osmers, Germany

20.58 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 12 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 20 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	1899 Hoffenheim for / against	Line	Hamburger SV for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3.5our book	1.38 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	8.38 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.13 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	18.88 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.25 for · 15.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.5 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.5 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13 for · 7.25 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.5 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.38 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.38 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Harm Osmers, Germany — 4.42 yellow cards a game, 0.17 red cards, 20.58 fouls over 12 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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1899 Hoffenheim

1899 Hoffenheim Goalkeeper

1899 Hoffenheim — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
O. Baumann	5	90450 min	122.4 /90	102 /90	00 /90

1899 Hoffenheim — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1899 Hoffenheim before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
O. Baumann n 8	90	2.3 7/2

1899 Hoffenheim Defensive

1899 Hoffenheim — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
O. Kabak	6	88529 min	61 /90	71.2 /90	71.2 /90	427.1 /90	142.4 /90	20.3 /90
V. Coufal	6	84506 min	71.2 /90	81.4 /90	10.2 /90	244.3 /90	40.7 /90	10.2 /90
A. Hajdari	6	75447 min	61.2 /90	102 /90	40.8 /90	183.6 /90	102 /90	10.2 /90
M. Rots	5	72361 min	61.5 /90	20.5 /90	30.7 /90	184.5 /90	61.5 /90	00 /90
K. Machida	3	52156 min	21.2 /90	95.2 /90	00 /90	63.5 /90	42.3 /90	10.6 /90
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1899 Hoffenheim — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1899 Hoffenheim before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
L. Avdullahu n 8	88.8	0.6 3/2	0.6 3/2	N. Remberg
O. Kabak n 8	88.6	2.2 7/5	0.4 2/1	N. Capaldo
W. Burger n 8	88.6	0.9 5/2	0.9 4/2	N. Remberg
V. Coufal n 8	85.8	0.7 4/1	1.2 4/3	N. Capaldo
A. Hajdari n 8	75.3	1.8 7/4	0.4 2/1	—
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1899 Hoffenheim — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1899 Hoffenheim before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
L. Avdullahu n 8	88.8	1.5 6/3
W. Burger n 8	88.6	1.7 6/3
O. Kabak n 8	88.6	0.9 6/1
V. Coufal n 8	85.8	1.7 8/3
A. Hajdari n 8	75.3	1.2 5/3
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1899 Hoffenheim Attacking

1899 Hoffenheim — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Hložek	6	68406 min	20.4 /90	00 /90	173.8 /90	51.1 /90	51.1 /90	71.6 /90
T. Lemperle	5	69345 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	71.8 /90	51.3 /90	102.6 /90	20.5 /90
Max Moerstedt	3	43128 min	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	74.9 /90	53.5 /90	21.4 /90	00 /90
L. Avdullahu	6	88530 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	40.7 /90	20.3 /90	61 /90	10.2 /90
W. Burger	6	88529 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	91.5 /90	40.7 /90	122 /90	20.3 /90
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1899 Hoffenheim — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1899 Hoffenheim before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
L. Avdullahu n 8	88.8	0.5 4/0	0.3 2/0
W. Burger n 8	88.6	1.5 5/3	0.5 3/1
O. Kabak n 8	88.6	1.1 7/1	0.3 2/0
V. Coufal n 8	85.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Hajdari n 8	75.3	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
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1899 Hoffenheim — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1899 Hoffenheim before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
L. Avdullahu n 8	88.8	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
O. Kabak n 8	88.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
W. Burger n 8	88.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
V. Coufal n 8	85.8	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
A. Hajdari n 8	75.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV Goalkeeper

Hamburger SV — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Daniel Heuer Fernandes	4	90360 min	133.3 /90	133.3 /90	00 /90
S. Tangvik	1	9090 min	44 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Hamburger SV — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Daniel Heuer Fernandes n 8	90	3.6 6/6

Hamburger SV Defensive

Hamburger SV — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
N. Capaldo	5	87435 min	142.9 /90	112.3 /90	00 /90	285.8 /90	112.3 /90	10.2 /90
J. Torunarigha	4	77307 min	30.9 /90	61.8 /90	41.2 /90	133.8 /90	72.1 /90	00 /90
S. Bornauw	3	90270 min	31 /90	51.7 /90	31 /90	93 /90	51.7 /90	00 /90
S. Nandja	3	69208 min	20.9 /90	20.9 /90	20.9 /90	41.7 /90	31.3 /90	10.4 /90
W. Omari	2	54107 min	00 /90	21.7 /90	21.7 /90	43.4 /90	10.8 /90	00 /90
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Hamburger SV — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
N. Remberg n 8	90	1 6/2	0.8 4/2	W. Burger
N. Capaldo n 8	88.1	2 8/6	1.7 5/2	V. Coufal
A. Grønbæk n 8	81.9	0.7 4/1	1.8 6/3	—
P. Daka n 5	59.6	1.2 3/1	1.5 4/1	—
Daniel Heuer Fernandes n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
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Hamburger SV — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
N. Remberg n 8	90	1.5 6/3
N. Capaldo n 8	88.1	2.8 8/6
A. Grønbæk n 8	81.9	2.9 6/5
P. Daka n 5	59.6	1.8 4/2
A. Sambi Lokonga n 8	72.6	1.4 6/3
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Hamburger SV Attacking

Hamburger SV — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Grønbæk	5	79397 min	20.5 /90	20.5 /90	51.1 /90	40.9 /90	71.6 /90	61.4 /90
P. Daka	5	60298 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	72.1 /90	00 /90	51.5 /90	41.2 /90
T. Moffi	4	44177 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.5 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
M. Adeline	3	67200 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	20.9 /90	00 /90
Y. Poulsen	3	35105 min	10.9 /90	00 /90	32.6 /90	21.7 /90	21.7 /90	21.7 /90
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Hamburger SV — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
N. Remberg n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0.1 1/0
N. Capaldo n 8	88.1	0.8 4/1	0.4 2/1
A. Grønbæk n 8	81.9	1.1 4/3	0.8 3/3
P. Daka n 5	59.6	2.1 4/2	0 0/0
Daniel Heuer Fernandes n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Hamburger SV — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Remberg n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
N. Capaldo n 8	88.1	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
A. Grønbæk n 8	81.9	0.4 2/1	0.5 3/1
P. Daka n 5	59.6	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
Daniel Heuer Fernandes n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
1899 Hoffenheim		Hamburger SV
64%	Possession	36%
0.93	Expected goals (xG)	1.28
17	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	4
5	Shots off target	7
8	Blocked shots	4
9	Shots inside the box	10
7	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
11	Fouls	16
3	Yellow cards	0
1	Red cards	0
1	Saves	3
545	Passes	306
81%	Pass accuracy	69%

1899 Hoffenheim Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
L. Avdullahu	90	0	0	0	0	2	1	Y	7.3
W. Burger	90	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	7
V. Coufal	90	0	0	1	0	4	2	0	7
O. Kabak	90	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.5
O. Baumann	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
B. Conté	87	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	8
K. Machida	74	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
A. Daghim	74	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	7.3
Bernardo	65	0	0	0	0	0	3	RY	5.9
F. Asllani	63	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	6.2
T. Lemperle	63	0	0	4	1	0	1	0	6.6
A. Hložek sub	27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
A. Kramarić sub	27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
R. Hranáč sub	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
A. Prass sub	16	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.2
V. Gendrey sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2

Hamburger SV Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
D. Møller Wolfe	90	0	0	1	0	0	1	6.3
S. Bornauw	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
N. Capaldo	90	0	0	2	0	1	5	7
W. Omari	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.7
Fábio Vieira	90	0	0	2	1	1	1	7.5
Daniel Heuer Fernandes	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
M. Adeline	76	0	0	0	0	0	3	6.9
L. Lemke	76	0	0	0	0	0	2	6.5
A. Sambi Lokonga	76	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.6
Y. Poulsen	59	1	0	2	1	1	2	7
N. Remberg	41	0	0	1	0	0	0	6.9
M. Muheim sub	49	1	1	1	1	3	2	7.6
Otto Emerson Stange sub	31	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.5
Kofi Jeremy Amoako sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
T. Moffi sub	14	1	0	2	1	0	0	7.5
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind 1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

1899 HoffenheimLLWLL

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1.4 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

Hamburger SVWLLLW

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1 scored / 2.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 4

1899 Hoffenheim 3 · 0 draws · Hamburger SV 1 · 3.25 goals/game

2026-04-25 Hamburger SV 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim
2025-12-13 1899 Hoffenheim 4–1 Hamburger SV
2018-04-14 1899 Hoffenheim 2–0 Hamburger SV
2017-11-26 Hamburger SV 3–0 1899 Hoffenheim

League standing · 2026/27

1899 Hoffenheim#14 pos9 pts8 pl-2 GD

Hamburger SV#10 pos12 pts9 pl-10 GD

Goals per game

1899 Hoffenheim scored1.75

Hamburger SV scored1.11

1899 Hoffenheim conceded2

Hamburger SV conceded2.22

Shot Map and Expected Goals

1899 Hoffenheim 0.93 xG from 17 shots, Hamburger SV 1.56 from 16. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

1899 Hoffenheim (attacking right)Hamburger SV (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
1899 Hoffenheim	17	1	0.93
Hamburger SV	16	3	1.56

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: 1899 Hoffenheim 0.53, Hamburger SV 0.86. At full time, Hamburger SV led on xG, 1.56 to 0.93. The widest gap was 0.69 xG to Hamburger SV, in the 19th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)

1899 Hoffenheim 0.93 xGHamburger SV 1.56 xGdots = goals · 33 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for 1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV?: TACTIX’s free model pick for 1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.44 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV?: In their last 4 meetings, 1899 Hoffenheim won 3, Hamburger SV won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.25 goals per game.
What is the recent form of 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV?: Recent form — 1899 Hoffenheim 1W 0D 4L; Hamburger SV 2W 0D 3L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 24 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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