Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg prediction
Team pages: Bayer Leverkusen · SC Freiburg · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg, Bundesliga on Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:30 BST.
The match
Bayer Leverkusen host SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga on Sunday 18 October (kick-off 14:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
Bayer Leverkusen have scored in 12 consecutive matches.
SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last nine matches. SC Freiburg have scored in nine consecutive matches.
Form and the table
Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last six matches. 10 of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in eight of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 15 results (53%). At home, Bayer Leverkusen have four wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 7 home matches — 1.86 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 0.86. Bayer Leverkusen have scored 14 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Bayer Leverkusen have conceded eight goals, the fifth-fewest of the 18 clubs.
13 of SC Freiburg’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (87%). Both teams scored in 12 of SC Freiburg’s last 15 results (80%). Away from home, SC Freiburg have three wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 6 away matches — 1.67 points per game, scoring 2.33 and conceding 1.50. SC Freiburg have scored 14 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). SC Freiburg have conceded four goals, the fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.
Bayer Leverkusen (fourth) and SC Freiburg (third) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Bayer Leverkusen the stronger side, 51 rating points above SC Freiburg (Bayer Leverkusen 1781, SC Freiburg 1730, after at least 311 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in the last six meetings with SC Freiburg, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026, finished SC Freiburg 3–3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Team news
Bayer Leverkusen have six names on the availability list: C. Kofane (out, Muscle Injury), E. Ben Seghir (out, Muscle Injury), G. Doue (out, Calf Injury), K. Eichhorn (out, Illness), M. Culbreath (out, Foot Injury) and M. Terrier (doubtful, Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-17. By TACTIX Impact, Patrik Schick (6.1 per match over eight appearances, eight goals and one assist) and Ibrahim Maza (5.4 per match over seven appearances, two goals and two assists) have been Bayer Leverkusen’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bayer Leverkusen (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Patrik Schick averages 3.1 shots per 90 over 720 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. Ibrahim Maza averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1073 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.
SC Freiburg have two names on the availability list: Y. Suzuki (out, Red Card) and J. Beste (doubtful, Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-17. By TACTIX Impact, Igor Matanović (6.8 per match over nine appearances, six goals and three assists) and Matthias Ginter (5.4 per match over nine appearances, two goals and three assists) have been SC Freiburg’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for SC Freiburg (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Igor Matanović averages 3.3 shots per 90 over 899 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Matthias Ginter averages 1.6 tackles per 90 over 798 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last nine appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Bundesliga · BayArena
- Referee: Florian Badstubner
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Bayer Leverkusen 4 · draws 2 · SC Freiburg 0 · 4.33 goals/game
- Recent form: Bayer Leverkusen 4W 1D 0L · SC Freiburg 4W 1D 0L
As of 18 October 2026, TACTIX’s model — calibration published live, losing picks included — covers Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg across 246 markets; the key numbers are on this page. See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Bayer Leverkusen for / against | Line | SC Freiburg for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 3 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.25our book | 3.25 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 6.75 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.13 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 20.5 for · 10 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 19.38 for · 7.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 7.25 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 7.5 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 13.25 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 10.13 for · 14.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.25 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.38 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
Referee: Florian Badstubner.
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tillman n 8 | 55.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | — |
| Christian Kofane n 8 | 31.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | — |
| Lucas Vázquez n 8 | 38.5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | — |
| I. Maza n 8 | 85.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | — |
| G. Doué n 8 | 71.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| V. Boniface n 8 | 31.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 |
| Christian Kofane n 8 | 31.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| P. Schick n 8 | 67.5 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Afonso Moreira n 8 | 68.5 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| N. Tella n 8 | 60.4 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P. Schick n 8 | 67.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| Christian Kofane n 8 | 31.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| N. Tella n 8 | 60.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| M. Tillman n 8 | 55.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| I. Maza n 8 | 85.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| E. Palacios n 8 | 62 | 3.4 |
| E. Fernández n 8 | 51.5 | 3.1 |
| L. Badé n 8 | 65 | 2.4 |
| E. Ben Seghir n 8 | 14.5 | 2.3 |
| G. Doué n 8 | 71.8 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| J. Blaswich n 8 | 90 | 4.5 |
| M. Flekken n 8 | 81.6 | 2.2 |
SC Freiburg
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Goto n 8 | 18.4 | 4.9 | 1.2 | — |
| Cyriaque Kalou Irié n 8 | 34.4 | 2.6 | 1 | — |
| D. Scherhant n 8 | 76.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | — |
| I. Matanović n 8 | 65 | 1.9 | 1.7 | — |
| Y. Engelhardt n 8 | 76.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cyriaque Kalou Irié n 8 | 34.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| I. Matanović n 8 | 65 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| D. Scherhant n 8 | 76.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| V. Grifo n 8 | 33.5 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| L. Höler n 8 | 33.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| K. Goto n 8 | 18.4 | 1.2 | 0 |
| V. Grifo n 8 | 33.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| D. Scherhant n 8 | 76.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| M. Eggestein n 8 | 90 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Y. Suzuki n 8 | 77.3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Rosenfelder n 8 | 60.9 | 3.7 |
| Berkay Yilmaz n 8 | 59.8 | 3 |
| P. Treu n 8 | 78.4 | 2.7 |
| I. Ogbus n 8 | 44.5 | 2 |
| D. Scherhant n 8 | 76.6 | 1.5 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Backhaus n 8 | 90 | 0.9 |
The day’s free picks, by email
Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.
Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-03-07 SC Freiburg 3–3 Bayer Leverkusen
- 2025-10-26 Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC Freiburg
- 2025-05-04 SC Freiburg 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen
- 2024-12-21 Bayer Leverkusen 5–1 SC Freiburg
- 2024-03-17 SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayer Leverkusen
- 2023-10-29 Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.50 at Betano).
- What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg?
- In their last 6 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 4, SC Freiburg won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 4.33 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg?
- Recent form — Bayer Leverkusen 4W 1D 0L; SC Freiburg 4W 1D 0L.
Today’s boards
Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.
This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.