FSV Mainz 05 v Union Berlin result

Full-time · FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin

Bundesliga · Sun, 10 May 2026 18:30 BST · MEWA ARENA

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: FSV Mainz 05 · Union Berlin · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin — Union Berlin won this Bundesliga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.7% of 492 landed (95% range 64.5–72.6%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 596 of 928 times (64.2%), against an average rating of 67.4%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Union Berlin: 2.94 to 2.11 in expected goals, from 16 shots to 14, ahead on xG from the 87th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Union Berlin won 3–1 at MEWA ARENA in the Bundesliga on Sunday 10 May. Union Berlin have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Union Berlin led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Union Berlin: A. Ilić (38’, assisted by Aljoscha Kemlein), O. Burke (88’, assisted by A. Ilić) and Josip Juranović (90’, assisted by Tim Skarke); FSV Mainz 05: Sheraldo Becker (48’, assisted by P. Nebel).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with O. Burke’s goal on 88 minutes.

Discipline

Florian Exner, Germany showed three yellow cards — against 3.9 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — FSV Mainz 05: Anthony Caci (7’) and Lee Jae-Sung (75’); Union Berlin: Derrick Köhn (80’).

What it changes

FSV Mainz 05 stay 10th after this result (33 league matches played). FSV Mainz 05 have scored 42 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 33 games). FSV Mainz 05 have conceded 53 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Union Berlin stay 12th after this result (33 league matches played). Union Berlin have scored 40 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 18 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 33 games). Union Berlin have conceded 58 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, A. Ilić (Union Berlin) 8.8, O. Burke (Union Berlin) 6.4 and Diogo Leite (Union Berlin) 5.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

Union Berlin are unbeaten in the last six meetings with FSV Mainz 05, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.7% of the time in the last 90 days (338 of 492).

Next up

FSV Mainz 05 next travel to FC Augsburg on 21 November 2026.

Union Berlin next host RB Leipzig on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for FSV Mainz 05: FC Augsburg v FSV Mainz 05, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Union Berlin: Union Berlin v RB Leipzig, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin · Bundesliga
Venue: MEWA ARENA · Mainz
Referee: Florian Exner, Germany
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): FSV Mainz 05 0 · draws 3 · Union Berlin 3 · 3.17 goals/game
Recent form: FSV Mainz 05 1W 1D 3L · Union Berlin 0W 2D 3L

FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin (Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 1

Goals

against 1.63 / 2.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

5.38 / 4.13

Corners

against 4.25 / 5.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.13 / 3.63

Shots on target

against 4.25 / 5.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.88 / 1.5

Cards

against 3.13 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

3.9 yellows

Referee · Florian Exner, Germany

20.7 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 10 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 3 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	FSV Mainz 05 for / against	Line	Union Berlin for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	1 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.38 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.13 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.38 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.5 for · 14.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.13 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.63 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.63 for · 10.25 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.63 for · 8.75 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.88 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.5 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Florian Exner, Germany — 3.9 yellow cards a game, 0.2 red cards, 20.7 fouls over 10 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 Goalkeeper

FSV Mainz 05 — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
D. Batz	26	902340 min	813.1 /90	321.2 /90	10 /90
R. Zentner	17	851441 min	503.1 /90	171.1 /90	10.1 /90
L. Rieß	5	71357 min	153.8 /90	133.3 /90	00 /90

FSV Mainz 05 — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FSV Mainz 05 before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
D. Batz n 8	90	2.5 7/4
R. Zentner n 8	81.8	3.2 6/5

FSV Mainz 05 Defensive

FSV Mainz 05 — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. da Costa	41	883601 min	631.6 /90	411 /90	190.5 /90	1694.2 /90	260.6 /90	30.1 /90
D. Kohr	39	843287 min	742 /90	621.7 /90	200.5 /90	1855.1 /90	631.7 /90	160.4 /90
S. Bell	22	631392 min	161 /90	241.6 /90	130.8 /90	1056.8 /90	171.1 /90	60.4 /90
A. Hanche-Olsen	21	671403 min	151 /90	261.7 /90	151 /90	946 /90	201.3 /90	50.3 /90
N. Veratschnig	20	44870 min	222.3 /90	151.6 /90	20.2 /90	515.3 /90	181.9 /90	40.4 /90
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FSV Mainz 05 — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FSV Mainz 05 before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
K. Sano n 8	90	0.6 4/1	1 6/2	R. Khedira
D. da Costa n 8	88.1	0.3 2/0	0.5 3/1	D. Doekhi
D. Kohr n 8	81.8	1.9 6/5	1.1 6/2	D. Doekhi
P. Nebel n 8	85.1	1.3 5/3	1.1 7/1	R. Khedira
Lee Jae-Sung n 8	77.8	0.7 4/1	0.6 3/1	—
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FSV Mainz 05 — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FSV Mainz 05 before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
K. Sano n 8	90	1.6 5/3
D. da Costa n 8	88.1	1.3 6/2
D. Kohr n 8	81.8	1.8 6/4
P. Nebel n 8	85.1	1.9 6/4
Lee Jae-Sung n 8	77.8	1.4 6/3
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FSV Mainz 05 Attacking

FSV Mainz 05 — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Sieb	26	35901 min	20.2 /90	00 /90	212.1 /90	80.8 /90	121.2 /90	101 /90
P. Tietz	21	861805 min	40.2 /90	10 /90	422.1 /90	241.2 /90	190.9 /90	120.6 /90
N. Weiper	20	541072 min	20.2 /90	00 /90	272.3 /90	151.3 /90	100.8 /90	60.5 /90
B. Hollerbach	19	611163 min	20.2 /90	30.2 /90	201.5 /90	90.7 /90	110.9 /90	171.3 /90
A. Nordin	14	53742 min	00 /90	00 /90	141.7 /90	30.4 /90	40.5 /90	50.6 /90
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FSV Mainz 05 — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FSV Mainz 05 before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
K. Sano n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0.1 1/0
D. da Costa n 8	88.1	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
D. Kohr n 8	81.8	0.8 5/1	0.3 2/0
P. Nebel n 8	85.1	0.8 4/2	0.5 3/1
Lee Jae-Sung n 8	77.8	0.9 4/1	0.4 3/0
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FSV Mainz 05 — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FSV Mainz 05 before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
K. Sano n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
D. da Costa n 8	88.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Kohr n 8	81.8	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
P. Nebel n 8	85.1	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0
Lee Jae-Sung n 8	77.8	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
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Union Berlin

Union Berlin Goalkeeper

Union Berlin — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
F. Rønnow	32	872781 min	822.7 /90	571.8 /90
C. Klaus	2	75149 min	63.6 /90	31.8 /90
M. Raab	2	66131 min	106.9 /90	00 /90

Union Berlin — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
F. Rønnow n 8	82.6	2.7 5/3

Union Berlin Defensive

Union Berlin — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Doekhi	34	903060 min	481.4 /90	451.3 /90	240.7 /90	2236.6 /90	290.9 /90	40.1 /90
L. Querfeld	32	902880 min	541.7 /90	401.3 /90	260.8 /90	2267.1 /90	461.4 /90	60.2 /90
Diogo Leite	22	851880 min	321.5 /90	422 /90	90.4 /90	1225.8 /90	261.2 /90	40.2 /90
T. Rothe	18	571032 min	221.9 /90	201.7 /90	30.3 /90	665.8 /90	121 /90	00 /90
S. Nsoki	12	68813 min	131.4 /90	192.1 /90	20.2 /90	424.6 /90	80.9 /90	20.2 /90
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Union Berlin — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Doekhi n 8	90	0.6 4/1	0.3 1/1	D. Kohr
R. Khedira n 8	89.4	1.6 7/4	0.4 2/1	P. Nebel
L. Querfeld n 8	90	1.6 6/4	0.4 2/1	—
F. Rønnow n 8	82.6	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
A. Ilić n 8	73.3	1.7 5/4	1.7 5/3	—
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Union Berlin — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
D. Doekhi n 8	90	1.1 5/3
R. Khedira n 8	89.4	0.8 6/0
L. Querfeld n 8	90	1.6 5/4
A. Ilić n 8	73.3	0.2 1/0
Ilyas Ansah n 8	55.5	1.2 4/1
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Union Berlin Attacking

Union Berlin — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Ilić	31	702170 min	30.1 /90	90.4 /90	542.2 /90	210.9 /90	311.3 /90	70.3 /90
Ilyas Ansah	30	641929 min	50.2 /90	10 /90	261.2 /90	120.6 /90	170.8 /90	281.3 /90
O. Burke	23	671536 min	50.3 /90	10.1 /90	251.5 /90	130.8 /90	181.1 /90	100.6 /90
Jeong Woo-Yeong	23	521187 min	30.2 /90	10.1 /90	151.1 /90	70.5 /90	50.4 /90	60.5 /90
Livan Burcu	13	38493 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	91.6 /90	20.4 /90	71.3 /90	112 /90
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Union Berlin — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Doekhi n 8	90	1.1 3/3	0.6 3/1
R. Khedira n 8	89.4	0.5 3/1	0.1 1/0
L. Querfeld n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0.1 1/0
F. Rønnow n 8	82.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Ilić n 8	73.3	2 6/5	1.1 5/2
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Union Berlin — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Doekhi n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
R. Khedira n 8	89.4	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
L. Querfeld n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
F. Rønnow n 8	82.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Ilić n 8	73.3	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
FSV Mainz 05		Union Berlin
53%	Possession	47%
1.57	Expected goals (xG)	2.68
14	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	9
7	Shots off target	6
4	Blocked shots	1
10	Shots inside the box	12
7	Corners	8
2	Offsides	0
11	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
6	Saves	2
462	Passes	411
84%	Pass accuracy	82%

FSV Mainz 05 Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
R. Zentner	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
S. Posch	90	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6.2
D. Kohr	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.9
K. Sano	90	0	0	2	1	1	1	0	6.9
N. Amiri	90	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	7.2
P. Mwene	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
P. Tietz	81	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
S. Becker	81	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	8.3
A. Caci	70	0	0	1	0	1	1	Y	6.9
P. Nebel	70	0	1	1	0	2	3	0	6.6
D. da Costa	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
K. Potulski sub	74	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	5.7
N. Veratschnig sub	20	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.2
Lee Jae-Sung sub	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.2
N. Weiper sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
A. Sieb sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7

Union Berlin Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
C. Klaus	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
D. Doekhi	90	0	0	3	1	0	1	0	7.2
Diogo Leite	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.9
R. Khedira	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.2
A. Kemlein	90	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	7.3
A. Ilić	90	1	1	4	3	1	0	0	7.2
O. Burke	88	1	0	1	1	2	2	0	7.3
C. Trimmel	81	0	0	0	0	5	3	0	8.9
T. Rothe	60	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.5
Ilyas Ansah	60	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	7
Livan Burcu	59	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.3
Jeong Woo-Yeong sub	31	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
A. Schäfer sub	30	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.7
D. Köhn sub	30	0	0	0	0	2	0	Y	6.9
J. Juranović sub	9	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7.3
T. Skarke sub	2	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind FSV Mainz 05 v Union Berlin — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

FSV Mainz 05LLDLW

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.2 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Union BerlinDLLLD

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 1.2 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

FSV Mainz 05 0 · 3 draws · Union Berlin 3 · 3.17 goals/game

2026-01-10 Union Berlin 2–2 FSV Mainz 05
2025-01-19 Union Berlin 2–1 FSV Mainz 05
2024-08-24 FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Union Berlin
2024-02-07 FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Union Berlin
2023-08-20 Union Berlin 4–1 FSV Mainz 05
2023-02-04 Union Berlin 2–1 FSV Mainz 05

League standing · 2025/26

FSV Mainz 05#10 pos40 pts34 pl-9 GD

Union Berlin#11 pos39 pts34 pl-14 GD

Goals per game

FSV Mainz 05 scored1.29

Union Berlin scored1.29

FSV Mainz 05 conceded1.56

Union Berlin conceded1.71

Shot Map and Expected Goals

FSV Mainz 05 2.11 xG from 14 shots, Union Berlin 2.94 from 16. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

FSV Mainz 05 (attacking right)Union Berlin (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
FSV Mainz 05	14	1	2.11
Union Berlin	16	3	2.94

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Union Berlin led on xG, 1.24 to 0.08. At full time, Union Berlin led on xG, 2.94 to 2.11. The widest gap was 1.16 xG to Union Berlin, in the 38th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)

FSV Mainz 05 2.11 xGUnion Berlin 2.94 xGdots = goals · 30 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for FSV Mainz 05 v Union Berlin?: TACTIX’s free model pick for FSV Mainz 05 v Union Berlin was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?: In their last 6 meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 0, Union Berlin won 3 and there were 3 draws, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?: Recent form — FSV Mainz 05 1W 1D 3L; Union Berlin 0W 2D 3L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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