This Matchweek

RB LeipzigHamburger SV

RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV result

Full-time · RB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SV

Bundesliga · · Leipzig Red Bull Arena

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: RB Leipzig · Hamburger SV · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

RB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SV — RB Leipzig won this Bundesliga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.43 at Unibet
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.5% of 505 landed (95% range 64.3–72.4%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 577 of 895 times (64.5%), against an average rating of 67.5%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said RB Leipzig: 2.48 to 0.51 in expected goals, from 19 shots to 10, ahead on xG from the 16th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

RB Leipzig beat Hamburger SV 5–0 at Leipzig Red Bull Arena in the Bundesliga on Sunday 13 September. RB Leipzig have scored in 13 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

RB Leipzig led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — RB Leipzig: Tidiam Gomis (17’, assisted by Ezechiel Banzuzi), Antonio Nusa (28’), W. Orbán (72’, assisted by Antonio Nusa), Christopher Nkunku (74’, assisted by Antonio Nusa) and Rômulo (77’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Tidiam Gomis’s goal on 17 minutes.

Discipline

Florian Badstubner, Germany showed three yellow cards — against 2.1 yellows a game across the last 14 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — RB Leipzig: Castello Lukeba (48’); Hamburger SV: N. Capaldo (6’) and Shafiq Nandja (71’).

What it changes

RB Leipzig move up from seventh to fourth (three league matches played).

Hamburger SV stay 18th after this result (three league matches played).

Hamburger SV have lost their last three matches in all competitions. Hamburger SV have failed to score in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Antonio Nusa (RB Leipzig) 12.8, Tidiam Gomis (RB Leipzig) 6.5 and Christopher Nkunku (RB Leipzig) 6.4 led the match.

Head-to-head

RB Leipzig are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Hamburger SV, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.5% of the time in the last 90 days (346 of 505).

Next up

RB Leipzig next travel to Union Berlin on 21 November 2026.

Hamburger SV next travel to Werder Bremen on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for RB Leipzig: Union Berlin v RB Leipzig, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Hamburger SV: Werder Bremen v Hamburger SV, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: RB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SV · Bundesliga
  • Venue: Leipzig Red Bull Arena · Leipzig
  • Referee: Florian Badstubner, Germany
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): RB Leipzig 5 · draws 1 · Hamburger SV 0 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: RB Leipzig 2W 0D 3L · Hamburger SV 2W 1D 2L

RB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 27 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.25 / 1.38
Goals
against 2.13 / 2 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
6 / 2.75
Corners
against 3.5 / 5.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
7.13 / 4
Shots on target
against 4.5 / 6.38 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.5 / 1.75
Cards
against 0.75 / 3.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
2.07 yellows
Referee · Florian Badstubner, Germany
21.64 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 14 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 10 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameRB Leipzig for / againstLineHamburger SV for / against
Goals scored
2.25 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.25our book
1.38 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
6 for · 3.5 against n 8
9.5standard
2.75 for · 5.88 against n 8
Shots
18.38 for · 11.88 against n 8
19.5standard
11.38 for · 15.25 against n 8
Shots on target
7.13 for · 4.5 against n 8
8.5standard
4 for · 6.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
8.38 for · 10 against n 8
21.5standard
12.5 for · 12.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.5 for · 0.75 against n 8
3.5standard
1.75 for · 3.13 against n 8

Referee: Florian Badstubner, Germany — 2.07 yellow cards a game, 0.07 red cards, 21.64 fouls over 14 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig Goalkeeper

RB Leipzig — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Maarten Vandevoordt490360 min123 /9030.8 /9000 /90
RB Leipzig — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Maarten Vandevoordt n 890
2.67/4

RB Leipzig Defensive

RB Leipzig — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
W. Orbán490360 min20.5 /9041 /9041 /90194.8 /9041 /9010.3 /90
D. Raum484334 min51.3 /9030.8 /9010.3 /9071.9 /9030.8 /9000 /90
R. Baku479315 min61.7 /9020.6 /9030.9 /90154.3 /9020.6 /9000 /90
C. Lukeba390270 min41.3 /9093 /9031 /9093 /9000 /9000 /90
B. Henrichs22243 min12.1 /9012.1 /9000 /9024.2 /9000 /9000 /90
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RB Leipzig — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
W. Orbán n 890
0.83/2
0.63/2
N. Capaldo
Maarten Vandevoordt n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
A. Nusa n 875.5
0.11/0
2.57/5
A. Grønbæk
D. Raum n 883.1
0.94/2
0.52/2
N. Capaldo
N. Seiwald n 871.1
0.84/1
00/0
—
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RB Leipzig — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
W. Orbán n 890
1.66/3
A. Nusa n 875.5
1.56/3
D. Raum n 883.1
1.25/4
N. Seiwald n 871.1
3.37/6
R. Baku n 875
1.75/4
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RB Leipzig Attacking

RB Leipzig — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Nusa489354 min20.5 /9000 /90143.6 /9092.3 /9051.3 /90174.3 /90
T. Gomis446185 min00 /9031.5 /9073.4 /9021 /9052.4 /9021 /90
B. Gruda361183 min10.5 /9000 /9052.5 /9031.5 /9073.4 /9083.9 /90
C. Nkunku357170 min00 /9021.1 /9021.1 /9021.1 /9063.2 /9000 /90
J. Bakayoko348144 min00 /9000 /9042.5 /9010.6 /9010.6 /9031.9 /90
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RB Leipzig — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
W. Orbán n 890
0.94/3
0.43/0
Maarten Vandevoordt n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Nusa n 875.5
2.87/5
1.87/3
D. Raum n 883.1
0.84/1
0.53/1
N. Seiwald n 871.1
0.32/0
0.21/0
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RB Leipzig — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
W. Orbán n 890
0.32/0
0.11/0
Maarten Vandevoordt n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Nusa n 875.5
0.43/0
0.11/0
D. Raum n 883.1
00/0
0.32/0
N. Seiwald n 871.1
00/0
00/0
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Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV Goalkeeper

Hamburger SV — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Daniel Heuer Fernandes290180 min84 /9073.5 /9000 /90
S. Tangvik19090 min44 /9000 /9000 /90
Hamburger SV — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Daniel Heuer Fernandes n 890
4.17/6

Hamburger SV Defensive

Hamburger SV — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
S. Bornauw390270 min31 /9051.7 /9031 /9093 /9051.7 /9000 /90
N. Capaldo385255 min93.2 /9041.4 /9000 /90165.6 /9062.1 /9000 /90
S. Nandja268135 min10.7 /9010.7 /9021.3 /9021.3 /9021.3 /9000 /90
J. Torunarigha264127 min21.4 /9021.4 /9000 /9042.8 /9042.8 /9000 /90
N. Remberg390270 min62 /9031 /9020.7 /90165.3 /9041.3 /9000 /90
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Hamburger SV — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Bornauw n 390
1.73/1
00/0
—
N. Remberg n 890
1.37/3
1.16/3
—
N. Capaldo n 887.3
2.18/6
1.44/2
D. Raum
A. Grønbæk n 881.5
0.43/0
1.97/3
A. Nusa
P. Daka n 367.3
0.92/0
1.32/1
—
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Hamburger SV — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Remberg n 890
1.45/3
S. Bornauw n 390
12/1
N. Capaldo n 887.3
3.48/7
A. Grønbæk n 881.5
37/6
P. Daka n 367.3
1.32/1
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Hamburger SV Attacking

Hamburger SV — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Grønbæk380240 min20.8 /9000 /9051.9 /9041.5 /9010.4 /9031.1 /90
P. Daka367202 min00 /9010.4 /9041.8 /9000 /9020.9 /9031.3 /90
M. Adeline367200 min00 /9000 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9020.9 /9000 /90
Otto Emerson Stange32679 min00 /9000 /9033.4 /9022.3 /9000 /9033.4 /90
T. Moffi24487 min00 /9000 /9022.1 /9011 /9000 /9000 /90
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Hamburger SV — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Remberg n 890
0.32/0
0.11/0
S. Bornauw n 390
00/0
00/0
N. Capaldo n 887.3
0.63/1
0.31/1
A. Grønbæk n 881.5
1.25/3
14/3
P. Daka n 367.3
1.82/1
00/0
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Hamburger SV — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
N. Remberg n 890
00/0
0.32/0
S. Bornauw n 390
00/0
00/0
N. Capaldo n 887.3
00/0
0.32/0
A. Grønbæk n 881.5
0.42/1
0.32/0
P. Daka n 367.3
00/0
0.41/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
RB LeipzigHamburger SV
64%Possession36%
2.43Expected goals (xG)1.10
19Shots10
6Shots on target4
9Shots off target4
4Blocked shots2
12Shots inside the box7
7Corners7
0Offsides3
11Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
4Saves1
622Passes350
89%Pass accuracy81%

RB Leipzig Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Maarten Vandevoordt9000000008.5
W. Orbán9010310007.9
D. Raum9000004007.3
N. El Aynaoui9000201107.2
E. Banzuzi9001002307.5
B. Gruda9000201107.5
A. Nusa7812213109.3
B. Henrichs7400000207
T. Gomis7410111108.2
C. Lukeba73000000Y6.7
A. Ouédraogo3500002006.6
C. Nkunku sub5510420007.6
M. Estève sub1700000006.9
R. Baku sub1600000006.9
Rômulo sub1610110107.9
Max Finkgräfe sub1200000006.6

Hamburger SV Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
D. Møller Wolfe9000111005.5
N. Capaldo90001001Y5.5
A. Grønbæk9000003507.3
N. Remberg9000110206.5
J. Torunarigha9000000005.7
Daniel Heuer Fernandes9000000005.6
Zakaria El Ouahdi8900211006.2
A. Sambi Lokonga7800000106.7
P. Daka7300202206.6
S. Nandja73000001Y5.3
Y. Poulsen4500000006.2
T. Moffi sub4500111106.6
W. Omari sub1700000006.2
Fábio Vieira sub1700000106.3
Otto Emerson Stange sub1200000006.5
B. Jatta sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
RB LeipzigLWWLL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 2.4 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
Hamburger SVWDWLL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
RB Leipzig 5 · 1 draw · Hamburger SV 0 · 3 goals/game
  • 2026-03-01 Hamburger SV 1–2 RB Leipzig
  • 2025-10-18 RB Leipzig 2–1 Hamburger SV
  • 2022-10-18 RB Leipzig 4–0 Hamburger SV
  • 2019-04-23 Hamburger SV 1–3 RB Leipzig
  • 2018-01-27 RB Leipzig 1–1 Hamburger SV
  • 2017-09-08 Hamburger SV 0–2 RB Leipzig
League standing · 2026/27
RB Leipzig#3 pos18 pts9 pl+14 GD
Hamburger SV#10 pos12 pts9 pl-10 GD
Goals per game
RB Leipzig scored3
Hamburger SV scored1.11
RB Leipzig conceded1.44
Hamburger SV conceded2.22

Shot Map and Expected Goals

RB Leipzig 2.48 xG from 19 shots, Hamburger SV 0.51 from 10. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Christopher Nkunku 59' · 0.14 xGChristopher Nkunku 69' · 0.14 xGZakaria El Ouahdi 65' · 0.08 xGTerem Igobor Moffi 62' · 0.08 xGBenjamin Henrichs 44' · 0.08 xGBrajan Gruda 88' · 0.07 xGYussuf Poulsen 7' · 0.07 xGNeil El Aynaoui 79' · 0.06 xGNicolás Capaldo 53' · 0.06 xGDavid Raum 51' · 0.06 xGDavid Møller Wolfe 48' · 0.06 xGChristopher Nkunku 64' · 0.05 xGZakaria El Ouahdi 52' · 0.05 xGPatson Daka 61' · 0.04 xGWilli Orban 21' · 0.03 xGNeil El Aynaoui 25' · 0.03 xGPatson Daka 40' · 0.03 xGPatson Daka 43' · 0.03 xGBrajan Gruda 45' · 0.03 xGBenjamin Henrichs 11' · 0.02 xGAntonio Nusa 71' · 0.02 xGWilli Orban 24' · 0.02 xGNicolai Remberg 43' · 0.02 xGAssan Ouédraogo 14' · 0.02 xGWilli Orban 71' · 0.67 xG · goalRômulo 76' · 0.46 xG · goalChristopher Nkunku 73' · 0.44 xG · goalTidiam Gomis 16' · 0.07 xG · goalAntonio Nusa 27' · 0.07 xG · goal
RB Leipzig (attacking right)Hamburger SV (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
RB Leipzig1952.48
Hamburger SV1000.51

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: RB Leipzig 0.38, Hamburger SV 0.14. At full time, RB Leipzig led on xG, 2.48 to 0.51. The widest gap was 1.97 xG to RB Leipzig, in the 88th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.51.200′15′30′45′60′75′90′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - RB Leipzig 16 minGoal - RB Leipzig 27 minGoal - RB Leipzig 71 minGoal - RB Leipzig 73 minGoal - RB Leipzig 76 min
RB Leipzig 2.48 xGHamburger SV 0.51 xGdots = goals · 29 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV?
TACTIX’s free model pick for RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.43 at Unibet).
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV?
In their last 6 meetings, RB Leipzig won 5, Hamburger SV won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV?
Recent form — RB Leipzig 2W 0D 3L; Hamburger SV 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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